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G is right.. However i wanted to say that I working on something and soon (hopefully) I will present it here. As I found months before, market moves can be predicted in future even we can’t see it normally. How? I think i can tell – with Trendlines. However problem is, it’s impossible to do it in naked chart. (Green line represent point where price will change direction) It works on EVERY TF… Problem is drawdown sometimes. And because I found this topic and his “one pip TP” I should fix that and we can be profitable with it even if we use 1 pip TP and 1 pip SL.
I think you are on the same path as me… Look at my posted detailed trade results (almost 1 yr. backtest – http://penguintraders.com/forums/topic/nature-of-markets-power-of-probability-compounding-1pip/page/8/#post-7482) and you might find and answer and solve your DD problems… G.
Ah, did not saw it before! I’ll do my work. And I’ll ask something if needed, if you don’t mind. Thank You again! :) It’s nice to read this from you. ;) Trying my best.
Yes that was french scientists saying. Structure of market (graphic) looks like the graphic of strenght of water in a hose more exactly.
The problem is i am a not good in physic. as bad as my english lol.
Can you helps us with some graphics ?
Green pips
I don’t know guys, I have been looking at tick charts now for about 2 months. They look completely random to me. If I had a SL, I would expect to have a huge negative balance at the end of the 2 months instead of a positive balance. And this was just to get 1pip TP and the average wait time for all orders was 1 hour and 40 minutes. This means if my SL was anything near 1pip, most could be in a loss due to spread. Only edge that I have seen is to not use SL and to use the entire account as SL due to how random the market is.
Trading looking at a chart is like driving looking at the back mirror and there are many turns ahead.
One thing I have noticed is that, purely randomly generated charts resemble “patterns” and seems to show a fractal behavior. So this is what I’m exploring now.
Focus, Patience, Determination & Order in chaos
Yes… That’s true. And that’s why GG53 amazed me. ;) We really need to fix our indicator by our friend Saver here. :) But still.. Market respect something. Always. I can show it on chart again. I mean.. Umm, what i saying is that I CAN find reversal points in EVERY timeframe and every possible reversal. BUT… Only at SOME reversal points price will really reverse for more then 15 pips. If you say “hey i can find those points and find ANY reversal point” that’s cool, sure. Why not.. Problem is “it does NOT work at every reversal point”.
So what i need now is some kind of filter that will show me signal. Then i will look at my charts and see if this signal correlating with my reversal points. If yes, we got amazingly profitable signal. (Almost immediately you will get at least BE (breakeven))
This means if my SL was anything near 1pip, most could be in a loss due to spread. Only edge that I have seen is to not use SL and to use the entire account as SL due to how random the market is.
Couldn’t agree more.
Nothing has ever motivated me more than this...
I don’t know guys, I have been looking at tick charts now for about 2 months. They look completely random to me. If I had a SL, I would expect to have a huge negative balance at the end of the 2 months instead of a positive balance. And this was just to get 1pip TP and the average wait time for all orders was 1 hour and 40 minutes.
Saver, what tick charts you using. (10 tick?) And if you get your reversal points good, you will get profit more then loss.. Even with 1 pips SL which is still better then no SL (if you did accidentaly wrong trade) I’ll show that as soon as possible.
I don’t know guys, I have been looking at tick charts now for about 2 months. They look completely random to me. If I had a SL, I would expect to have a huge negative balance at the end of the 2 months instead of a positive balance. And this was just to get 1pip TP and the average wait time for all orders was 1 hour and 40 minutes.
Saver, what tick charts you using. (10 tick?) And if you get your reversal points good, you will get profit more then loss.. Even with 1 pips SL which is still better then no SL (if you did accidentaly wrong trade) I’ll show that as soon as possible.
Can’t wait for that George
So what i need now is some kind of filter that will show me signal. Then i will look at my charts and see if this signal correlating with my reversal points. If yes, we got amazingly profitable signal. (Almost immediately you will get at least BE (breakeven))
That’s awesome! Please share what you have found. I might be able to make the indicator to give us the alerts
Focus, Patience, Determination & Order in chaos
Yep, hopefully as soon as possible. For now, I just looked at my charts and saw that most probably, when I got signal, there is about 12 pips drawdown (from exact entry) where price can still reverse and go then for more then 40 pips. This means, if we traded EVERY signal BLINDLY from some point, and we use 15 pips stoploss, there is about 99% chance that IF price hit our stoploss it will go same direction until price will found another possible reverse point where we should re-enter with same rules. (So it SHOULD NOT HAPPEN that we enter, price hit our stoploss and boom it will go our desired direction and we will cry) This looks eliminated. Hopefully. Because look at my charts.
Remember, we counting on one thing. And that is… RETRACEMENT. Retracement ALWAYS happen. Only question is “where will happen”. By the way, on this AUD/USD chart I see another buy. It is on price 0.73114. As you can see, price again reversed. Now just 18 pips profit but still.. This is quite a succes. (Because price doing this every time. For example in uptrend you will see points 1 – 2 – 3. Then if we sell, price will keep the same, but opposite. So it will do 3 – 2 – 1). Problem what I still trying to solve is to find WHAT points are really points of reverse.
For now, I got tick charts. (10 tick’s or 34 ticks.. Of course less ticks = more you can see) So if i see selling opportunity, i will look at ticks if price doing something. If you want sell, you will problably see this.. (look at tick picture) (Using the latest SELL ( 0.74347) signal from AUDUSD picture “news_maybe”)
Saver, my friend… I got idea today. Not sure if it will work but… If we look at history to see how much times price breaks our level until finally reverse, and make average from it, we could elimitate wrong signals. :) As I look at my charts.. Before EVERY big move (reversal) i got about 3-4 wrong signals until price finally reverse. So if we take maximum, 4 wrong signals for 15 pips which means -60 pips… Then price moves for us to 98 pips we should be good.
However remember… Still go with some trend. (This system DOESN’T work in trend for weeks or more so good) but we can catch BIG move up to 180 pips on 1H chart for about ten hours. Sometimes more hours. Last very big move was 27 hours (27 “1H” candles) :) So about 1 day. But dont forget, if we are in soo much profit, we could stay in trend (if we find one) ;P
Because main idea is “sell high, buy low” Not opposite.. You will always lose with this style. Always telling this to my friends and what they doing? Of course, buy in downtrend (of course on HIGH where resistance is) because THEY THINK that price will break and go up… Lol.
Saver, my friend… I got idea today. Not sure if it will work but… If we look at history to see how much times price breaks our level until finally reverse, and make average from it, we could elimitate wrong signals. :) As I look at my charts.. Before EVERY big move (reversal) i got about 3-4 wrong signals until price finally reverse. So if we take maximum, 4 wrong signals for 15 pips which means -60 pips… Then price moves for us to 98 pips we should be good. However remember… Still go with some trend. (This system DOESN’T work in trend for weeks or more so good) but we can catch BIG move up to 180 pips on 1H chart for about ten hours. Sometimes more hours. Last very big move was 27 hours (27 “1H” candles) :) So about 1 day. But dont forget, if we are in soo much profit, we could stay in trend (if we find one) ;P Because main idea is “sell high, buy low” Not opposite.. You will always lose with this style. Always telling this to my friends and what they doing? Of course, buy in downtrend (of course on HIGH where resistance is) because THEY THINK that price will break and go up… Lol.
Excuse me if I’m missing but what happened to the 1 pip approach?
Nothing has ever motivated me more than this...
You will see. :) This can be used everywhere. You can of course, even on 1H get 1 pip at trade. Without any problem. :)
Here is proof that we could without any problem achieve Saver’s 1 pip. :) 34 tick TF at picture. Balrog, my friend.. I will make it clear for you. If we know what will happen and WHERE at 1H chart, We can be almost certainly sure that our 1 pip TP will be achieved 4 times per day. To get our desired profit. :) Or even 4 pips at one day. This means, we will be in profit and we don’t need just one pip.
Here is proof that we could without any problem achieve Saver’s 1 pip. :) 34 tick TF at picture. Balrog, my friend.. I will make it clear for you. If we know what will happen and WHERE at 1H chart, We can be almost certainly sure that our 1 pip TP will be achieved 4 times per day. To get our desired profit. :) Or even 4 pips at one day. This means, we will be in profit and we don’t need just one pip.
Ok. Thanks
Now do we need ctrader for this nice tick chart? I tried everything, Saver’s suggestion, etc. Still I don’t have such nice tick chart…
Nothing has ever motivated me more than this...
Ah, Im sorry, i got nice reply for you with everything, however my “flash player” or something crashed in chrome, so everything was deleted..
:( So I’ll make it short. Yes, if you want good tick charts and other things (can’t count all, there are big things.. even new indicators you probably don’t know etc) I don’t know about making indicators for cTrader, for you guys, because everybody use MT4 and his language, i sometimes too.. but not for trading. (It’s easy C#.. you can even program EA’s and indicators with visual studio) And because im learning C#, I’ll stick with cTrader now. (there is even convertor for indicators or EA’s to work with cTrader blablabla) But do guys what you want. :)You can use two platforms. MT4 for trading and programming or just stick with one. Problem is MT4 cannot save tick charts so you will need to start all over again to have some.
Saver, did you ever get the results mentioned in the beginning of this thread? % wins with SL’s using your script?
Hi Saver0 and gg53,
I’m quite interested in your fractalArrow project, are you still using it or have you developed a new version?
saver0 I’ve done similar experiments to you and also found that I would get 50% wins and losses nomatter what TP and SL I set, increasing the limits just increased the time trades would run for.
I’ve also discovered that using a SL is a sure way to give the broker your money. As I’ve learned more about FX I’ve become more disturbed by the fact that brokers operate dark markets and they could even just be showing you any price to justify closing your trade in loss. For example if you set a 1 pip TP and 1 pip SL, do you think you’ll have 50% winners and 50% losers? (not considering the loss of spread) no way, the broker will TAKE your cash! Almot every time they’ll say “oops the price moved against you”. It gets harder for them to justify that with a larger SL, but still. Putting your SL into the broker is like showing your hand in poker. And I don’t believe claims about brokers being ECN and STP and even ones like IBFX and so on claiming not to trade against their customers… I’d rather not give them that opportunity.
So what I’ve been thinking for a while, is I’ll choose my own random SL’s (if I choose to use them in a given strategy) and I’ll send the SL through when I’m ready (automated). There’s little point in hiding your SL if you make it 10 pips every time. But then again I wouldn’t expect they’d have algorithms to predict when you’re going to close a losing trade that doesn’t have an SL set. Or do they >:) lol
I’ve also had the sense that doing something like your 1 pip idea, with no SL would work. However the problem is you might find yourself on the wrong side of a monster trend and blow your whole account. Or find yourself having to close one trade (manually) in loss for hundreds of trades worth of profit. Which might be okay, it depends how often you profit. But the other problem with the 1 pip idea is you’d be stuck not trading for a long time while you’re waiting out your loss, and potentially paying swap fees. (haha you could only trade in the direction where you’ll make positive swap)
I still use the Fractal or ForexGT_Arrow in my EA’s and part of it (or it’s logic) with other indies for manual trading.
I can’t relate to the other subjects you raised.
G.
Saver, did you ever get the results mentioned in the beginning of this thread? % wins with SL’s using your script?
Unfortunately I didn’t and this is because my probabilities were based on trading every single tick and it would be impossible to trade every pip. I ended up margin calling with my demo account. Had a nice run though
Also the broker I had to use was a shitty one since I live in USA and I had to choose a broker that didn’t follow regulations. I never could trade 1 or 2pip TP since the spread was so big and during any news event the spread would spike up a lot.
Either case, the good news is, this was just one experimentI’ve also had the sense that doing something like your 1 pip idea, with no SL would work. However the problem is you might find yourself on the wrong side of a monster trend and blow your whole account. Or find yourself having to close one trade (manually) in loss for hundreds of trades worth of profit.
Yes, you are correct. And I have come to realize that there has to be a SL. Perhaps not a SL that’s visible but nevertheless a SL that would close the trade once its at a fixed loss position. I have been experimenting with detecting patterns, combining both zigzag lengths (both in time and value) and H values to find high probable patterns. It’s still a work in progress but the initial findings are showing an edge of about 65-70% odds to get 50pips with a 50pip SL.
Focus, Patience, Determination & Order in chaos
Hi all!
A lot has happened in my absence from this community. There were some family things that happened but things has finally returned to “normal” and I’m finding more time to continue my research where I left off. I hope to share my findings with you here and help you all along the way.
Continuing from where I left off..
———————————————-
My first goal was to observe the market and understand it’s nature. I have been able to successfully conclude as we would expect, a randomly placed trade would have a random outcome. This means if you randomly place a long or short trade, you would expect to have 50% probability of success (if we exclude the spread/commission).My second goal is to harness the power of money management to increase the odds of winning. Where odds of winning is the net % gain of the account balance. One of the simplest ways to grow your account steadily is to make sure that you are risking/gaining a fixed percentage of account balance rather than a fixed dollar amount.
Let’s take a look at the following 2 charts.
These are the simulated account balance from a trading system with 56% win rate. The top chart you will see how the account balance grew when on a successful trade a profit of 0.5% was taken and on a losing trade a -0.6% loss was taken. This translated to $5 TP and $6 SL. If I traded a fixed TP and SL $ amount then I would have ended up with about 350% gain. However, if I adjusted size of each new trade, then I would have had 1,200% gain. Even though the win rate of each trade was only 56%, with proper compounding based money management, you can have really good gains.
Let me ask a question.. have you ever wondered if there were patterns in the market with high recurrence?
Focus, Patience, Determination & Order in chaos
Hi Saver, nice looking charts. :) Now to your question. Yes I thougt about that and yes, of course they are patterns with high recurrence. I trade these mostly. And time profitable is about 90%. These 90% win rate works ONLY if you really respect every pattern and use it way as you should. You find some? This could help me achieve even bigger ratio. Will be following this thread for while now. :)
Here my chart. Lines were made realtime months ago. To be clear about 3months ago. Before brexit I had possible high / low for selling and buying. Sell was 1.1420 (catched exactly) and buy 1.0912 (same again).
Also look how every “main” line catch 50% of last move. It’s like using fibonacci but with this we know where 50% will be in advance. How we can use it? Thats my question. I’m not exactly sure now, but still working on it.
Yes, I’ve wondered … Maybe it has to do something with support/demand supported by big boys. Thus, those levels occur perhaps during highly volatile times. But that all is just a suggestion (never did some serious research on this topic).
Anti, you are right. I have source for REAL BIG BOYS trades (I mean places where banks and others sell or buy) and it works in volatile markets better then in low volatile market. :) Also, these places works exactly on TICK. So if they have sell order on 1.1215 (price will break it and make big pullback from 1.1215 lower). This happens during news mostly.
With my indicator I can see these places (I need to manually find “see” them) but it’s mostly on same place where banks have their orders. :) Sometimes I’m out for 10 pips. Anyway, not for more. That’s I think the reason why my resistance & support lines works so f**king good.
But I’m not still satisfied with this. I need to be much more accurate. My trading is about money and drawdown.
MoreLess drawdown and bigger amount of profit. No other way to trade. Not 50 pips stoploss and TP same. I’m sure together we can find something. At least still believe in it!I’m very happy I have you guys. Always full of ideas! :)
:( So I’ll make it short. Yes, if you want good tick charts and other things (can’t count all, there are big things.. even new indicators you probably don’t know etc) I don’t know about making indicators for cTrader, for you guys, because everybody use MT4 and his language, i sometimes too.. but not for trading. (It’s easy C#.. you can even program EA’s and indicators with visual studio) And because im learning C#, I’ll stick with cTrader now. (there is even convertor for indicators or EA’s to work with cTrader blablabla) But do guys what you want. :)
Also the broker I had to use was a shitty one since I live in USA and I had to choose a broker that didn’t follow regulations. I never could trade 1 or 2pip TP since the spread was so big and during any news event the spread would spike up a lot.
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