Saver0 replied to the topic Nature of Markets – Power of Probability, Compounding & 1pip in the forum Trading Systems Discussion 10 years, 10 months ago
Hi all,
Here is the result of my trading thus far. It’s working out pretty well. I placed a pretty bad trade that caused a 30% draw down but lesson learned. This is why its important demo trade with this system or start with a very small account size that you don’t mind losing. It will take time to master just like anything.
Green pips and good…[Read more]
Saver0 replied to the topic Nature of Markets – Power of Probability, Compounding & 1pip in the forum Trading Systems Discussion 10 years, 10 months ago
Hi all,
Here is the result of my trading thus far. It’s working out pretty well. I placed a pretty bad trade that caused a 30% draw down but lesson learned. This is why its important demo trade with this system or start with a very small account size that you don’t mind losing. It will take time to master just like anything.
Green pips and good…[Read more]
gg53 replied to the topic Nature of Markets – Power of Probability, Compounding & 1pip in the forum Trading Systems Discussion 10 years, 10 months ago
“…It is a very well proven and accepted principle of trading that volume confirms a trend.
There are many ways to define a move, such as a change in momentum, expansion of the range, the divergence of two moving averages, the RSI crossing through the 50% level, or even standard deviations.
However, let us take the simplest definition of a…[Read more]
gg53 replied to the topic Nature of Markets – Power of Probability, Compounding & 1pip in the forum Trading Systems Discussion 10 years, 10 months ago
“…It is a very well proven and accepted principle of trading that volume confirms a trend.
There are many ways to define a move, such as a change in momentum, expansion of the range, the divergence of two moving averages, the RSI crossing through the 50% level, or even standard deviations.
However, let us take the simplest definition of a…[Read more]
gg53 replied to the topic Nature of Markets – Power of Probability, Compounding & 1pip in the forum Trading Systems Discussion 10 years, 10 months ago
“…It is a very well proven and accepted principle of trading that volume confirms a trend.
There are many ways to define a move, such as a change in momentum, expansion of the range, the divergence of two moving averages, the RSI crossing through the 50% level, or even standard deviations.
However, let us take the simplest definition of a…[Read more]
Saver0 replied to the topic Nature of Markets – Power of Probability, Compounding & 1pip in the forum Trading Systems Discussion 10 years, 10 months ago
No, you need to have large amount of funds, I’m talking about at least $200k etc to justify the initial costs of dealing with the inter-banks. They cost a lot per month just for the trading terminals.
Also I want to make something clear, the tick data can be a bit misleading. Because you only need a few ticks in a raw the wipe out an entire…[Read more]
gg53 replied to the topic Forex Tri-Arb signals as predictors of price in the forum General Discussions 10 years, 10 months ago
Parts of this technique/method are used in the ForexGT_Arrow fractal “prediction”, if you remember the discussions about EURUSD/GBPUSD=EURGBP and the implications and variations on it…
G.
gg53 replied to the topic Forex Tri-Arb signals as predictors of price in the forum General Discussions 10 years, 10 months ago
Parts of this technique/method are used in the ForexGT_Arrow fractal “prediction”, if you remember the discussions about EURUSD/GBPUSD=GBPUSD and the implications and variations on it…
G.
gg53 replied to the topic Forex Tri-Arb signals as predictors of price in the forum General Discussions 10 years, 10 months ago
Parts of this technique/method are used in the ForexGT_Arrow fractal “prediction”, if you remember the discussions about EURUSD/GBPUSD=GBPUSD…
G.
gg53 replied to the topic Forex Tri-Arb signals as predictors of price in the forum General Discussions 10 years, 10 months ago
This approach worked well until about 4 years ago.
Since the brokers found out about it they are applying various techniques to prevent profitting from this approach, such as quotes delay and spread/slippage increase.
Currently this method only works well if you employ it between two brokers: one fast and one slower – using fast internet…[Read more]
gg53 replied to the topic Forex Tri-Arb signals as predictors of price in the forum General Discussions 10 years, 10 months ago
This approach worked well until about 4 years ago.
Since the brokers found out about it they are applying various techniques to prevent profitting from this approach, such as quotes delay and spread/slippage increase.
Currently this method only works well if you employ it between two brokers: one fast and one slower – using fast internet…[Read more]
gg53 replied to the topic Forex Tri-Arb signals as predictors of price in the forum General Discussions 10 years, 10 months ago
This approach worked well until about 4 years ago.
Since the brokers found out about it they are applying various techniques to prevent profitting from this approach, such as quotes delay and spreadqslippage increase.
Currently this method only works well if you employ it between two brokers: one fast and one slower – using fast internet…[Read more]
Saver0 replied to the topic Forex Tri-Arb signals as predictors of price in the forum General Discussions 10 years, 10 months ago
This I think is a worthy idea to explore further. I also ran into this thread last year and spend a few months working on it and spent a lot of hours. I had a script communicating with a Node.js script I wrote and MT4. I wasn’t able to reproduce good results. Sometimes it was good at predicting news but other times it gave false signals. It could…[Read more]
Saver0 replied to the topic Forex Tri-Arb signals as predictors of price in the forum General Discussions 10 years, 10 months ago
This I think is a worthy idea to explore further. I also ran into this thread last year and spend a few months working on it and spent a lot of hours. I had a script communicating with a Node.js script I wrote and MT4. I wasn’t able to reproduce good results.
Saver0 replied to the topic Nature of Markets – Power of Probability, Compounding & 1pip in the forum Trading Systems Discussion 10 years, 10 months ago
Here is the answer:
Success Count:3609957 Fail Count:130043 Success p: 96.5%
This is for a TP of 0.20% per trade giving myself 250pips before a margin call of 50% of account value.If you were to take 100 trades, 96.5 will hit 20pip TP and 3.5 will margin call. If one were to ignore compounding, meaning each trade one would take a fixed .20% TP…[Read more]
Saver0 replied to the topic Nature of Markets – Power of Probability, Compounding & 1pip in the forum Trading Systems Discussion 10 years, 10 months ago
Here is the answer:
Success Count:3609957 Fail Count:130043 Success p: 96.5%
This is for a TP of 0.20% per trade giving myself 250pips before a margin call of 50% of account value.If you were to take 100 trades, 96.5 will hit 20pip TP and 3.5 will margin call. If one were to ignore compounding, meaning each trade one would take a fixed .20% TP…[Read more]
Saver0 replied to the topic Nature of Markets – Power of Probability, Compounding & 1pip in the forum Trading Systems Discussion 10 years, 10 months ago
Based on your math (which looks correct for the most part), this looks like a holy grail system! I appreciate you taking the time to demonstrate this.
You don’t need a broker. Time to find some investments and trade directly with the inter-banks and pay a very tiny commission. Just send me 1% of the millions you make each year as a “thank…[Read more]
Saver0 replied to the topic Nature of Markets – Power of Probability, Compounding & 1pip in the forum Trading Systems Discussion 10 years, 10 months ago
Based on your math (which looks correct for the most part), this looks like a holy grail system! I appreciate you taking the time to demonstrate this.
You don’t need a broker. Time to find some investments and trade directly with the inter-banks and pay a very tiny commission. Just send me 1% of the millions you make each year as a “thank…[Read more]
Saver0 replied to the topic Nature of Markets – Power of Probability, Compounding & 1pip in the forum Trading Systems Discussion 10 years, 10 months ago
Thank you so much for the quote! It was an interesting read.
This gave me an idea! Let’s say that I had 2 accounts, each with $100. I go long on one account and short on the other with a lot size equal to 1pip = 0.5% of the account. Now, what is the probability that both will hit 20pip TP before one margin calls, what about for 10pips? I d…[Read more]
Saver0 replied to the topic Nature of Markets – Power of Probability, Compounding & 1pip in the forum Trading Systems Discussion 10 years, 10 months ago
Thank you so much for the quote! It was an interesting read.
This gave me an idea! Let’s say that I had 2 accounts, each with $100. I go long on one account and short on the other with a lot size equal to 1pip = 0.5% of the account. Now, what is the probability that both will hit 20pip TP before one margin calls, what about for 10pips? I d…[Read more]
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