Saver0 replied to the topic Nature of Markets – Power of Probability, Compounding & 1pip in the forum Trading Systems Discussion 10 years, 10 months ago
Yes, I see what you are talking about and you are correct. Out of the successful trades, there would be a lot that would fail if they actually had a SL. So yes, the SL wouldn’t make sense. I will need to get proper stats with an actual SL to see what it comes out to be. If we take out the spread, it should in theory come out to be 50% I think…[Read more]
gg53 replied to the topic Nature of Markets – Power of Probability, Compounding & 1pip in the forum Trading Systems Discussion 10 years, 10 months ago
Ticks on backtest are virtual, not real.
That’s why testing this method on backtest is worthless, except for debugging.
G.
gg53 replied to the topic Nature of Markets – Power of Probability, Compounding & 1pip in the forum Trading Systems Discussion 10 years, 10 months ago
Things that a broker can do:
slight control of quote price
Change slipage
Change spread
Delay quotes
Requote
G.
gg53 replied to the topic Nature of Markets – Power of Probability, Compounding & 1pip in the forum Trading Systems Discussion 10 years, 10 months ago
This theory already checked years ago, and it’s Ok.
The only thing to avoid is not to trade near current market extremes (i.e, SNB & the EURCHF at 1.20 level). Only trade within market “zone”.
Another thing is to whithdraw profits at 20-50% levels, while the remaining account should continue with latest lot sizes.
G.
Saver0 replied to the topic Nature of Markets – Power of Probability, Compounding & 1pip in the forum Trading Systems Discussion 10 years, 10 months ago
I got some interesting statistics for everyone. I tested this theory with tick data from January 1st 2012 to now for EURUSD.
I checked the probability of success with a TP of 3pips (assuming 2pips for open/close spread). The probability of success came out to be 92.324% for a trade to end successfully within 24 hours!
Total of 354,985 successful…[Read more]Saver0 replied to the topic Nature of Markets – Power of Probability, Compounding & 1pip in the forum Trading Systems Discussion 10 years, 10 months ago
Yes, you are correct.. I added a bit of debug info to this version of the EA. Please try it out and copy and paste the message you get after the error code.
Also are you using the FX-Blue tick chart or the MathTrader7_ScalpersTCCreator.ex4? The EA won’t work for MathTrader7_ScalpersTCCreator.ex4
Saver0 replied to the topic Nature of Markets – Power of Probability, Compounding & 1pip in the forum Trading Systems Discussion 10 years, 10 months ago
Yes, the settings are:
BarPeriodSeconds: 0
BarPeriodTicks: 1 (we wan 1 tick charts)
RangeBarPips: 0
RenkoBarPips: 0
ShowAsOfflinePeriod: 3
And everything else default. Open the offline chart M3 and it should show the 1 tick chart.Saver0 replied to the topic Nature of Markets – Power of Probability, Compounding & 1pip in the forum Trading Systems Discussion 10 years, 10 months ago
Yes, the settings are:
BarPeriodSeconds: 0
BarPeriodTicks: 1 (we want 1 tick charts)
RangeBarPips: 0
RenkoBarPips: 0
ShowAsOfflinePeriod: 3
And everything else default. Open the offline chart M3 and it should show the 1 tick chart.Saver0 replied to the topic Nature of Markets – Power of Probability, Compounding & 1pip in the forum Trading Systems Discussion 10 years, 10 months ago
Yes, the settings are:
BarPeriodSeconds: 0
BarPeriodTicks: 1 (we wan 1 tick charts)
RangeBarPips: 0
RenkoBarPips: 0
ShowAsOfflinePeriod: 3
And everything else default. Open the offline chart M3 and it should show the 1 tick chart.Saver0 replied to the topic Nature of Markets – Power of Probability, Compounding & 1pip in the forum Trading Systems Discussion 10 years, 10 months ago
Hmm.. this is most likely due to the order size being too large. Do you already have trades in? It calculates the order size based on account balance, not free margin. It’s meant to be used to place one single trade. Try reducing the Percent_Return to something lower like 0.3 or 0.2 and let me know if that works.
Saver0 replied to the topic Nature of Markets – Power of Probability, Compounding & 1pip in the forum Trading Systems Discussion 10 years, 10 months ago
If you want to go for 99.9% after 2 days, it’s important that you reduce the TP % per trade to perhaps 0.20% per trade (this means reducing the lot size). Try it out with the EA on a demo account and see what you get

I plan on getting the statistics for tick data which I downloaded recently. I post the charts when I get the chance. What it…[Read more]
Saver0 replied to the topic Nature of Markets – Power of Probability, Compounding & 1pip in the forum Trading Systems Discussion 10 years, 10 months ago
I updated the first post with a link to a new tick chart indicator that I ended up using and the new EA that I made to help me with the trading. It’s now easier to spot where the true TP line would be and to see the up coming news and current spread.
Also attached is an example of a bad trade which still resolved in about 5hrs. This tends to…[Read more]
Saver0 replied to the topic Nature of Markets – Power of Probability, Compounding & 1pip in the forum Trading Systems Discussion 10 years, 10 months ago
I updated the first post with a link to a new tick chart indicator that I ended up using and the new EA that I made to help me with the trading. It’s now easier to spot where the true TP line would be and to see the up coming news and current spread.
Also attached is an example of a bad trade which still resolved in about 5hrs. This tends to…[Read more]
Saver0 replied to the topic Nature of Markets – Power of Probability, Compounding & 1pip in the forum Trading Systems Discussion 10 years, 10 months ago
Haha millions sure does get us all excited
The numbers say its possible but its safest to cash out after small gains of 1000% instead of waiting for 10,000% gain! hahaAs for the Renko charts. It’s a good idea. If you are best at telling trend with Renko, sure, use it!

Saver0 replied to the topic Nature of Markets – Power of Probability, Compounding & 1pip in the forum Trading Systems Discussion 10 years, 10 months ago
You are right!

As for % per trade, I use Oanda (1:50) and I can get up to 0.43% per trade in EURUSD but if one goes for lower, then that also increases the probability of success because it increases the amount of time you have per trade due to draw down so very valid point. Also keep in mind that you don’t have to go for 2% a day. With…[Read more]
Saver0 replied to the topic Nature of Markets – Power of Probability, Compounding & 1pip in the forum Trading Systems Discussion 10 years, 10 months ago
Here are all the ideal places with lower high for short entries off of the tick chart (since its short trades that I was looking for based on M15 chart)
Always wait for a good setup on M15 and then this type of setups on the tick chart to make the entry.Saver0 replied to the topic Nature of Markets – Power of Probability, Compounding & 1pip in the forum Trading Systems Discussion 10 years, 10 months ago
I’m not sure if you are still getting my point. If anyone is wrong only 0.01% of the time, it’s fine to blow up the account when that 0.01% event occurs.
The TZ EA was a different concept. This is not TZ trading. It’s very difficult for an EA to read the trend correctly, not impossible but its much easier to spend 15min a day to place 2-3…[Read more]
Saver0 replied to the topic Nature of Markets – Power of Probability, Compounding & 1pip in the forum Trading Systems Discussion 10 years, 10 months ago
Here are all the trades that were taken today as an example. I enter the pull-backs in tick chart that were against the trend direction of the M15.
Saver0 replied to the topic Nature of Markets – Power of Probability, Compounding & 1pip in the forum Trading Systems Discussion 10 years, 10 months ago
It’s all based on how much profit you take from a single trade. My goal is 0.40% from each trade. Here is the calculation you can do to figure out how much the final gain would be after X number of trades.
G = Percent gain in decimal (i.e. 0.40% = 0.004)
X = Number of trades
Then percent gain after X number of trades = ((1+G)^X)*100
For…[Read more]Saver0 replied to the topic Nature of Markets – Power of Probability, Compounding & 1pip in the forum Trading Systems Discussion 10 years, 10 months ago
Glad to hear Scissors! TP of 20pips is pretty high for me but if it works for you, then that’s great. The highest accuracy (probability of success) is for lower TP size. With 20pip TP, my guess is that the probability is probably at around 60% (60% recurrent) with random entry but I’m sure it can be very high if you are really good at reading the…[Read more]
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