gg53 replied to the topic Nature of Markets – Randomness & Probability in the forum Trading Systems Discussion 10 years, 9 months ago
Welcome back Kiad and success in business.
Just to add to your post: There is no such thing as BUY EURUSD…
By doing so you are EXCHANGING “worthless” USD with “priceless” EUR. “worthless” & “priceless” are, ofcourse, in your own current opinion, hopes and length of time you intend to hold this position….
Any discussion on the “value” of E…[Read more]
MTH2014 replied to the topic Nature of Markets – Randomness & Probability in the forum Trading Systems Discussion 10 years, 9 months ago
Ok this just simple example on probability.
let say that I have unlimited capital, then I only trade EURUSD pair. and I only open long positions, and I only open long positions ‘if’ EURUSD price under 1 (parity).
and I open 1 long position every London open every trading day (as long as EURUSD under parity), without any SL, and my TP is parity…[Read more]
MTH2014 replied to the topic Nature of Markets – Randomness & Probability in the forum Trading Systems Discussion 10 years, 9 months ago
Hi Brother Savero, Nice Thread and Subscribe..
Please allowed me to post here since this is the latest trending topic in this beloved forum..
For all my Brothers and Sisters, please forgive me that I’m not very active lately in forex community, because I must deal with my big family companies. Since my Uncle past away several weeks a go I m…[Read more]
gg53 replied to the topic Nature of Markets – Randomness & Probability in the forum Trading Systems Discussion 10 years, 9 months ago
That’s NOT what I said, and don’t “translate” me according to your needs.
You are confusing “Random” behaviour with “price Prediction”.
Our ability (or lack of it…) to predict future price have nothing to do with certain currency trend behaviour, the inter-relations between currencies – which are governed by economic rules.
Want to…[Read more]
gg53 replied to the topic Nature of Markets – Randomness & Probability in the forum Trading Systems Discussion 10 years, 9 months ago
That’s NOT what I said, and don’t “translate” me according to your needs.
You are confusing “Random” behaviour with “price Prediction”.
Our ability (or lack of it…) to predict future price have nothing to do with certain currency trend behaviour, the inter-relations between currencies – which are governed by economic rules.
Want to…[Read more]
gg53 replied to the topic Nature of Markets – Randomness & Probability in the forum Trading Systems Discussion 10 years, 9 months ago
You are confusing “Random” behaviour with “price Prediction”.
Our ability (or lack of it…) to predict future price have nothing to do with certain currency trend behaviour, the inter-relations between currencies – which are governed by economic rules.
Want to check that statement against your “random” theory? it’s simple:
For every…[Read more]
gg53 replied to the topic Nature of Markets – Randomness & Probability in the forum Trading Systems Discussion 10 years, 9 months ago
My point was related to your statement that EURUSD or GBPUSD (just an example) are random.
They are NOT!
Forex is CURRENCY based, not currency-pairs based.
You can argue that EUR and/or USD are random, but not their product, EURUSD.
I will argue that currencies are also not “random”. True, they have “noise” patterns attached, but they follow…[Read more]
gg53 replied to the topic Nature of Markets – Randomness & Probability in the forum Trading Systems Discussion 10 years, 9 months ago
Perfect!!
You just proved my point: Forex is EUR trend combined with USD trend, and NOT EURUSD trend.
Good job!
G.
gg53 replied to the topic Nature of Markets – Randomness & Probability in the forum Trading Systems Discussion 10 years, 9 months ago
The relevance of the car traveling speed and TIME – to the Forex market was explained, but here it is again.
How much TIME it takes for a price to go from point A to point B, and from point B to point C – when the distance AB=BC.
Does knowing those values affect your Forex analysis, direction and prediction?
I suggest you read Perry Kaufman’s…[Read more]
gg53 replied to the topic Nature of Markets – Randomness & Probability in the forum Trading Systems Discussion 10 years, 9 months ago
Focus on where NOT to trade!
Using Currency-Strength:
Use only non-digital Currency-Strength indicator – you need to see direction and not only numbers.
Buy signal is when Currency A is above 0 and rising while Currency B is below 0 and falling.
The above signal should be supported by some kind of volume increasing indicator as supporting…[Read more]
gg53 replied to the topic Nature of Markets – Randomness & Probability in the forum Trading Systems Discussion 10 years, 9 months ago
Focus on where NOT to trade!
G.
gg53 replied to the topic Nature of Markets – Randomness & Probability in the forum Trading Systems Discussion 10 years, 9 months ago
The MAIN key to this 1 pip strategy is not price-action, but identifying Trending market with high probability, and at the same time avoiding High/Low zones.
Basically, the most important thing in this 1 pip strategy is when NOT to trade…
I’m currently using separate indicators for Trending AND for Ranging identification, and trade only…[Read more]
gg53 replied to the topic Nature of Markets – Randomness & Probability in the forum Trading Systems Discussion 10 years, 9 months ago
The MAIN key to this 1 pip strategy is not price-action, but identifying Trending market with high probability, and at the same time avoiding High/Low zones.
Basically, the most important thing in this 1 pip strategy is when NOT to trade…
I’m currently using separate indicators for Trending AND for Ranging identification, and trade only…[Read more]
gg53 replied to the topic Nature of Markets – Randomness & Probability in the forum Trading Systems Discussion 10 years, 9 months ago
The MAIN key to this 1 pip strategy is not price-action, but identifying Trending market with high probability, and at the same time avoiding High/Low zones.
I’m currently using separate indicators for Trending AND for Ranging identification, and trade only when Trending=TRUE and Ranging=FALSE, thus doubling the probability of entering in…[Read more]
gg53 replied to the topic Nature of Markets – Randomness & Probability in the forum Trading Systems Discussion 10 years, 9 months ago
The MAIN key to this 1 pip strategy is not price-action, but identifying Trending market with high probability., and at the same time avoiding High/Low zones.
I’m currently using separate indicators for Trending AND for Ranging identification, and trade only when Trending=TRUE and Ranging=FALSE, thus doubling the probability of entering in…[Read more]
gg53 replied to the topic Nature of Markets – Randomness & Probability in the forum Trading Systems Discussion 10 years, 9 months ago
The above is not a proof of random…
1. You are trading NOISE.
2. Bar open from previous open contains some degree of the “trend”, and by trading from “Open” to next “Open” you are “considering” part of the “trend”.
G.
gg53 replied to the topic Nature of Markets – Power of Probability, Compounding & 1pip in the forum Trading Systems Discussion 10 years, 9 months ago
Try 144 ticks bars to distinguish chop vs. trending market.
G.
gg53 replied to the topic Nature of Markets – Power of Probability, Compounding & 1pip in the forum Trading Systems Discussion 10 years, 9 months ago
ForexGT_Spaghetti & ForexGT_TickVolume are made by me and are not for share.
You can find similiar, older versions, in the (late) “Killing Zone” thread @FF – Gadi_Currencies & Gadi_TickVolume.
G.
gg53 replied to the topic The Forex Plumber in the forum Trading Systems Discussion 10 years, 9 months ago
Again, I fail to see the issue…
The “Crossing” means nothing, only the relative movement of one pair in relation to the other.
Your signal, in the EURUSD & GBPUSD overlay case, is when GBPUSD is going UP/DOWN while the EURUSD stays flat or going in the opposite direction.
The logic behind trading the overlay is to neutralize the USD and…[Read more]
gg53 replied to the topic The Forex Plumber in the forum Trading Systems Discussion 10 years, 9 months ago
Again, I fail to see the issue…
The “Crossing” means nothing, only the relative movement of one pair in relation to the other.
Your signal, in the EURUSD & GBPUSD overlay case, is when GBPUSD is going UP/DOWN while the EURUSD stays flat or going in the opposite direction.
The logic behind trading the overlay is to neutralize the USD and…[Read more]
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