Saver0 replied to the topic Nature of Markets – Power of Probability, Compounding & 1pip in the forum Trading Systems Discussion 10 years, 10 months ago
Feel free to adjust the TP_Pips to something a bit higher to count for the commission. I imagine with commission, your spread would be a lot lower. For example with Oanda, I’m getting about 1.5pips for spread so for both ways thats 3pips + 1pip TP, I need to catch in reality 4pips.
Saver0 replied to the topic Nature of Markets – Power of Probability, Compounding & 1pip in the forum Trading Systems Discussion 10 years, 10 months ago
I will post an updated version with time zone offset and there could be a bug in disable of buttons during and after news. i will look into that as well.
Saver0 replied to the topic Nature of Markets – Power of Probability, Compounding & 1pip in the forum Trading Systems Discussion 10 years, 10 months ago
I posted an updated version of the EA which everyone can download.
It seems you were having issues downloading the .ex4 files. Try downloading the zip file from the very first post and extract the MQL4 folder into your MT4 MQL4 folder and then restart the terminal. It should work

Saver0 replied to the topic Nature of Markets – Power of Probability, Compounding & 1pip in the forum Trading Systems Discussion 10 years, 10 months ago
yes, i will post a new version later with a few updates

Saver0 replied to the topic Nature of Markets – Power of Probability, Compounding & 1pip in the forum Trading Systems Discussion 10 years, 10 months ago
Hi all,
I’m back to my busy schedule. I managed to place 8 1pip trades for a total gain of 3.2% daily gain. In my books, anything around 1% gain is exceptional. I’m very happy and excited to see all the good trades you guys have been making. But it also makes me a bit nervous to see that we are making way too many trades and might be getting a…[Read more]
Saver0 replied to the topic Nature of Markets – Power of Probability, Compounding & 1pip in the forum Trading Systems Discussion 10 years, 10 months ago
Hi all,
I’m back to my busy schedule. I managed to place 8 1pip trades for a total gain of 3.2% daily gain. In my books, anything around 1% gain is exceptional.
Please keep in mind the aim of this thread, that is to imprint in your brain how EASY it is to make 1% and that 1% is ALL YOU NEED!
Heck, if you could make 0.50% consistently, be happy,…[Read more]
Saver0 replied to the topic Nature of Markets – Power of Probability, Compounding & 1pip in the forum Trading Systems Discussion 10 years, 10 months ago
Thanks for the confirmation GG, means a lot

Saver0 replied to the topic Nature of Markets – Power of Probability, Compounding & 1pip in the forum Trading Systems Discussion 10 years, 10 months ago
Yes, I see what you are talking about and you are correct. Out of the successful trades, there would be a lot that would fail if they actually had a SL. So yes, the SL wouldn’t make sense. I will need to get proper stats with an actual SL to see what it comes out to be. If we take out the spread, it should in theory come out to be 50% I think…[Read more]
Saver0 replied to the topic Nature of Markets – Power of Probability, Compounding & 1pip in the forum Trading Systems Discussion 10 years, 10 months ago
Yes, I see what you are talking about and you are correct. Out of the successful trades, there would be a lot that would fail if they actually had a SL. So yes, the SL wouldn’t make sense. I will need to get proper stats with an actual SL to see what it comes out to be. If we take out the spread, it should in theory come out to be 50% I think…[Read more]
Saver0 replied to the topic Nature of Markets – Power of Probability, Compounding & 1pip in the forum Trading Systems Discussion 10 years, 10 months ago
Yes, I see what you are talking about and you are correct. Out of the successful trades, there would be a lot that would fail if they actually had a SL. So yes, the SL wouldn’t make sense. I will need to get proper stats with an actual SL to see what it comes out to be. If we take out the spread, it should in theory come out to be 50% I think…[Read more]
gg53 replied to the topic Nature of Markets – Power of Probability, Compounding & 1pip in the forum Trading Systems Discussion 10 years, 10 months ago
Ticks on backtest are virtual, not real.
That’s why testing this method on backtest is worthless, except for debugging.
G.
gg53 replied to the topic Nature of Markets – Power of Probability, Compounding & 1pip in the forum Trading Systems Discussion 10 years, 10 months ago
Things that a broker can do:
slight control of quote price
Change slipage
Change spread
Delay quotes
Requote
G.
gg53 replied to the topic Nature of Markets – Power of Probability, Compounding & 1pip in the forum Trading Systems Discussion 10 years, 10 months ago
This theory already checked years ago, and it’s Ok.
The only thing to avoid is not to trade near current market extremes (i.e, SNB & the EURCHF at 1.20 level). Only trade within market “zone”.
Another thing is to whithdraw profits at 20-50% levels, while the remaining account should continue with latest lot sizes.
G.
Saver0 replied to the topic Nature of Markets – Power of Probability, Compounding & 1pip in the forum Trading Systems Discussion 10 years, 10 months ago
I got some interesting statistics for everyone. I tested this theory with tick data from January 1st 2012 to now for EURUSD.
I checked the probability of success with a TP of 3pips (assuming 2pips for open/close spread). The probability of success came out to be 92.324% for a trade to end successfully within 24 hours!
Total of 354,985 successful…[Read more]Saver0 replied to the topic Nature of Markets – Power of Probability, Compounding & 1pip in the forum Trading Systems Discussion 10 years, 10 months ago
Yes, you are correct.. I added a bit of debug info to this version of the EA. Please try it out and copy and paste the message you get after the error code.
Also are you using the FX-Blue tick chart or the MathTrader7_ScalpersTCCreator.ex4? The EA won’t work for MathTrader7_ScalpersTCCreator.ex4
Saver0 replied to the topic Nature of Markets – Power of Probability, Compounding & 1pip in the forum Trading Systems Discussion 10 years, 10 months ago
Yes, the settings are:
BarPeriodSeconds: 0
BarPeriodTicks: 1 (we wan 1 tick charts)
RangeBarPips: 0
RenkoBarPips: 0
ShowAsOfflinePeriod: 3
And everything else default. Open the offline chart M3 and it should show the 1 tick chart.Saver0 replied to the topic Nature of Markets – Power of Probability, Compounding & 1pip in the forum Trading Systems Discussion 10 years, 10 months ago
Yes, the settings are:
BarPeriodSeconds: 0
BarPeriodTicks: 1 (we want 1 tick charts)
RangeBarPips: 0
RenkoBarPips: 0
ShowAsOfflinePeriod: 3
And everything else default. Open the offline chart M3 and it should show the 1 tick chart.Saver0 replied to the topic Nature of Markets – Power of Probability, Compounding & 1pip in the forum Trading Systems Discussion 10 years, 10 months ago
Yes, the settings are:
BarPeriodSeconds: 0
BarPeriodTicks: 1 (we wan 1 tick charts)
RangeBarPips: 0
RenkoBarPips: 0
ShowAsOfflinePeriod: 3
And everything else default. Open the offline chart M3 and it should show the 1 tick chart.Saver0 replied to the topic Nature of Markets – Power of Probability, Compounding & 1pip in the forum Trading Systems Discussion 10 years, 10 months ago
Hmm.. this is most likely due to the order size being too large. Do you already have trades in? It calculates the order size based on account balance, not free margin. It’s meant to be used to place one single trade. Try reducing the Percent_Return to something lower like 0.3 or 0.2 and let me know if that works.
Saver0 replied to the topic Nature of Markets – Power of Probability, Compounding & 1pip in the forum Trading Systems Discussion 10 years, 10 months ago
If you want to go for 99.9% after 2 days, it’s important that you reduce the TP % per trade to perhaps 0.20% per trade (this means reducing the lot size). Try it out with the EA on a demo account and see what you get

I plan on getting the statistics for tick data which I downloaded recently. I post the charts when I get the chance. What it…[Read more]
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