Following the (shameless surrender) agreement of the Western-Powers(???) with Iran – Excepct oil prices to drop further.

For those who doesn’t like the taste of oil in their morning coffee (read as = don’t trade oil…) – look for shorting the CAD, but do that only AFTER the coming friday NFP.

Canada is exporter of oil – and drop in oil price…[Read more]

This one looks like many trades on the same bar, since condition to trade are still true.

Limit the trades to only one per bar.

G.

The simplified formula version I’m using is:
Kelly % = W – [(1 – W) / R]

(I’m using Half Kelly)

W = % of winning trades
R = ratio of avg gain of winning trades relative to the avg loss of losing trades.

That’s why logging of each trade result is required – and recalculate the Half Kelly% for each new open trade.
Initial and first log ent…[Read more]

Yep.

FXEZ: Profit & Loss are not fixed in my trading style.

I start with SL and no fixed TP, and try to minimize risk by trailing Stop (and hopefully BE). Profit is trailed after BE in dynamic decreasing steps – change in conditions will trigger immediate TP.

G.

I’m familiar with that thread, but I’m using Half Kelly with trding log right now. I’m happy with the results compared to fixed lot sizing and %balance/equity sizing.

G.

I have to deeply dig… but I’ll find it.

G.

Recently I’m using Half Kelly – since my trades are usually don’t suffer from large DD.

G.

That’s why I mentioned logging trade results and using Kelly based on your trade log.

The difference in performance, in my case and experience,  is HUGE.

G.

Not a bad idea at all! The two currency lines aren’t perfect mirrors so looking at the times went delta_fastest cross the delta_slowest and/or when slow_of_first_currency cross fast_of_first_currency and when the slow_of_first_currency_cross fast_of_first_currency_cross in the opposite direction can also give good signals at least to alert us to…[Read more]

This looks very cool Simplex! Have you used it before?

Academic research suggest that Kelly is slightly more profitable while “Fixed Ratio” is better in handling DD.

I haven’t seen real traders long term results on this.

G.

I’m confused…

If the entry was based on higher TF – than looking at a higher TF is no change in “tactics”.

Same goes for MM & Risk.

But you suggested, or my understanding was, to CHANGE the initial entry logic to another logic, while in the tade- and my response was based on this “tactic”.

G.

On position sizing:

The main target of money management is on how to MAXIMIZE the geometric return in our account.

Using %Balance or %Equity is too simplistic and reduces your earning potential.

My favorites are the trade-size techniques introduced by the “Kelly Criterion” (either half or full Kelly) or the “Fixed Ratio concepts” by  Ryan Jo…[Read more]

On position sizing:

Using %Balance or %Equity is too simplistic and reduces your earning potential.

My favorites are the trade-size techniques introduced by the “Kelly Criterion” (either half or full Kelly) or the “Fixed Ratio concepts” by  Ryan Jones (Google it and watch the results).

It requires logging of previous trades results and calcu…[Read more]

On position sizing:

Using %Balance or %Equity is too simplistic and reduces your earning potential.

My favorites are the trade-size techniques introduced by the “Kelly Criterion” (either half or full Kelly) or the “Fixed Ratio concepts” by  Ryan Jones (Google it and watch the results).

It requires logging of previous trades results and calcu…[Read more]

I’m against this kind of “strategy”.

1. It is against your initial Entry logic, MM, and risk management – introducing “hope”, expectation and guess work.

2. It will keep you in the market for much longer – consuming margin, and exposing you to yet another market changes.

G.

I’m against this kind of “startegy”.

1. It is against your initial Entry logic, MM, and risk management – introducing “hope”, expectation and guess work.

2. It will keep you in the market for much longer – consuming margin, and exposing you to yet another market changes.

G.

My personal “strategy” for exit a trade with “no reason”:

If the trade is not in profit after 4 bars – I exit the trade.

Reason: My entry signal was probably false, Market or conditions might have changed.

Staying for longer than that is landing me in “La-La Land” and guess work, not trading per my entry logic anymore.

My Ego is bruised, but…[Read more]

My personal “strategy” for exit a trade with “no reason”:

If the trade is not in profit after 4 bars – I exit the trade.

Reason: My entry signal was probably false, Market or conditions might have changed.

Staying for longer than that is landing me in “La-La Land” and guess work, not logical trading anymore.

My Ego is bruised, but I’m out.

G.