This approach worked well until about 4 years ago.

Since the brokers found out about it they are applying various techniques to prevent profitting from this approach, such as quotes delay and spreadqslippage increase.

Currently this method only works well if you employ it between two brokers: one fast and one slower – using fast internet…[Read more]

This I think is a worthy idea to explore further. I also ran into this thread last year and spend a few months working on it and spent a lot of hours. I had a script communicating with a Node.js script I wrote and MT4. I wasn’t able to reproduce good results. Sometimes it was good at predicting news but other times it gave false signals. It could…[Read more]

This I think is a worthy idea to explore further. I also ran into this thread last year and spend a few months working on it and spent a lot of hours. I had a script communicating with a Node.js script I wrote and MT4. I wasn’t able to reproduce good results.

Here is the answer:
Success Count:3609957 Fail Count:130043 Success p: 96.5%
This is for a TP of 0.20% per trade giving myself 250pips before a margin call of 50% of account value.

If you were to take 100 trades, 96.5 will hit 20pip TP and 3.5 will margin call. If one were to ignore compounding, meaning each trade one would take a fixed .20% TP…[Read more]

Here is the answer:
Success Count:3609957 Fail Count:130043 Success p: 96.5%
This is for a TP of 0.20% per trade giving myself 250pips before a margin call of 50% of account value.

If you were to take 100 trades, 96.5 will hit 20pip TP and 3.5 will margin call. If one were to ignore compounding, meaning each trade one would take a fixed .20% TP…[Read more]

Based on your math (which looks correct for the most part), this looks like a holy grail system! I appreciate you taking the time to demonstrate this.

You don’t need a broker. Time to find some investments and trade directly with the inter-banks and pay a very tiny commission. Just send me 1% of the millions you make each year as a “thank…[Read more]

Based on your math (which looks correct for the most part), this looks like a holy grail system! I appreciate you taking the time to demonstrate this.

You don’t need a broker. Time to find some investments and trade directly with the inter-banks and pay a very tiny commission. Just send me 1% of the millions you make each year as a “thank…[Read more]

Thank you so much for the quote! It was an interesting read.

This gave me an idea! Let’s say that I had 2 accounts, each with $100. I go long on one account and short on the other with a lot size equal to 1pip = 0.5% of the account. Now, what is the probability that both will hit 20pip TP before one margin calls, what about for 10pips? I d…[Read more]

Thank you so much for the quote! It was an interesting read.

This gave me an idea! Let’s say that I had 2 accounts, each with $100. I go long on one account and short on the other with a lot size equal to 1pip = 0.5% of the account. Now, what is the probability that both will hit 20pip TP before one margin calls, what about for 10pips? I d…[Read more]

Thank you so much for the quote! It was an interesting read.

This gave me an idea! Let’s say that I had 2 accounts, each with $100. I go long on one account and short on the other with a lot size equal to 1pip = 0.5% of the account. Now, what is the probability that both will hit 20pip TP before one margin calls, what about for 10pips? I don’t…[Read more]

Thank you so much for the quote! It was an interesting read.

This gave me an idea! Let’s say that I had 2 accounts, each with $100. I go long on one account and short on the other with a lot size equal to 1pip = 0.5% of the account. Now, what is the probability that both will hit 20pip TP before one margin calls, what about for 10pips? I don’t…[Read more]

There is 94% chance that the price will move to 1.40 AND 1.4006 within 24 hours

That’s a very interesting question! This is a bit similar to what I did with Zelo a while back with price levels. To answer your question, one would need to run some statistics. The probability would change when you make it conditional because you are no longer…[Read more]

2 more points to the above post:

1. Using only one open trade per currency pair – it will take long time to reach the SL and prevent the 4-5 trades per day…

2. Using multiple open trades per currency pair – it will prevent using large lots per trade due to account size limitations…

… Real life limitations that are not taken into account…[Read more]

2 more points to the above post:

1. Using only one open trade per currency pair – it will take long time to reach the SL and prevent the 4-5 trades per day…

2. Using multiple open trades per currency pair – it will prevent using large lots per trade due to account size limitations…

G.

More good news guys!!

Before the 94% with 3pip TP was for a trade ending within 24 hours. I now caculated the probability ignoring the time but for actual pip draw down of 100. The 100 pip draw down is when an Oanda 1:50 margin would have a margin call assuming each trade made 0.5% with 1pip TP (this is actually not possible with 1:50 margin, in…[Read more]

More good news guys!!

Before the 94% with 3pip TP was for a trade ending within 24 hours. I now caculated the probability ignoring the time but for actual pip draw down of 100. The 100 pip draw down is when an Oanda 1:50 margin would have a margin call assuming each trade made 0.5% with 1pip TP (this is actually not possible with 1:50 margin, in…[Read more]

Please download the latest version from the first post. I corrected this and the Hour_Offset is a variable which you can adjust now
Also made some performance improvements.

You will have a margin call at 100 pips draw down with Oanda, that is correct. You can lower the TP to something more comfortable with your risk level for sure. For starting out, something like 0.2% might be better giving yourself a 250pip cushion for the market’s recurrent nature to take the trade your way. These 1pip TP trades generally end…[Read more]

Very valid points you make and it something to consider for sure.  Let me explain the theory again perhaps in a different way.

Based on tick data, there is a 94% probability (94/100) of a trade being successful within 24 hours if placed randomly without regard to direction if the trade is for a total TP of 3pips (we need 3pips to count for…[Read more]

Feel free to adjust the TP_Pips to something a bit higher to count for the commission. I imagine with commission, your spread would be a lot lower. For example with Oanda, I’m getting about 1.5pips for spread so for both ways thats 3pips + 1pip TP, I need to catch in reality 4pips. So adjust yours for a total TP of around 3pips with commission+spread