MTH – My Noob Corner Journal

[MTH2014]

Disclaimer and Warning.

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1. All of my share here is for educational purpose only.

2. All tools or systems share here ‘freely’  as is and with your own risk.

3. Past performance could not guarantee future result.

4. If sometimes in the future, someone contact you by e-mail or Private Messages or by other way of communications and acting or pretending like me, and asking for help and/or requesting money for any reason. Please IGNORE IT immediately.. and please post your finding / inform our forum admin.

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Hi Guys, this is my ‘anything I want to write’ journal.

This may content whatever I like to mention about my trading hobby, discuss about it if you want to, or if you want asking something related to forex trading to me, I’ll gladly try to answer as far as I know from my own perspective.

I also want to record some of my personal progress, maybe my daily trading account progress, since this is good time to start, from the beginning of 2016, maybe we could talk about it, share our story so far.

Ok, the history so far for my daily account (that I handled together with my younger son..lol) still in good shape, from the last December until today, we deal with hundred positions mostly in xxxUSD major pairs, there also some positions that I already ‘hold’ from the middle of last year, and I plan to keep them further this year.. lol

I’ll try to keep my record of low drawdown this year, and I’m sure that in general, market trend will continue in the same direction as 2015.

Until next time and happy trading…

MTH

 

Intuition, Experiences and Common sense..
http://www.binaryoptionsedge.com/

[mak]

As close to perfection as trader can get…….amazing.

[GildedLining]

I appreciate that you’re sharing this, brother; it helps so much!

And your profit/loss numbers will always be in Indonesian Rupiah, correct? So anyone following along can do conversions to their own local currency without trouble. https://www.google.com/search?q=indonesian+currency+conversion

[Shumway]

Nicely going, steady profit. This just motivates more me to learn from You guys ;)

[Trader7]

Hi Kiads,

Always willing to learn from a master. Looking forward to your masterful writings.

Trader7

[GildedLining]

I have some questions, if you’re in the mood for them.
If you are ever too busy to respond or would prefer not to answer any, I will understand and still be thankful!

• What have you learned from the two losing trades so far?

• What can you say about trades that almost lost but didn’t?

• With so many open trades, how concerned are you about sudden news spikes?

• How much do you consider swaps and interest rates in positions you hold for many days?

[MTH2014]

GildedLining wrote:

I have some questions, if you’re in the mood for them. If you are ever too busy to respond or would prefer not to answer any, I will understand and still be thankful! • What have you learned from the two losing trades so far? • What can you say about trades that almost lost but didn’t? • With so many open trades, how concerned are you about sudden news spikes? • How much do you consider swaps and interest rates in positions you hold for many days?

Hi Brother,

• Actually that 2 losing trades is because my ‘old eyes’ that wrongly close this 2 positions instead of opposite positions that I want to close..lol, so blame the mouse not me… hahaha..
• I believe that there’s no losing positions until you decide to close your floating minus positions, so as long as you have ‘strong margin’ (and this is my main trading key) there’s always probability that your floating minus became floating plus  vice versa. The main point is, do you choose to stay at finite side or infinite side of the market. By go Long first, you stay at finite side of the market, on the other side if you go short first then you stay at infinite side of the market that of course more riskier than the other side.
• When SNB decide to release their Swiss franc pegged to Euro, we know that there’s huge spike of approximately 2800 pip in minutes, but since at that point my total active trades margin strength could cover 7500 pip range movement until margin called, then my account survived that huge spike, and as you ‘see’ just in approximately 5 weeks USDCHF price reverse and back to normal conditions. By open many trades from many major pairs, actually there some ‘interlocking’ each other positions and that could reduce my total exposure and keep my risk level low.
• Fortunately I use non swap/moslem accounts, but even if you use swap account, simply you could playing this game with same direction ‘swap positive’ pairs while the correlation of that pairs actually is negative correlation, so your ‘swap’ could give you extra profit on daily basis, and could cover your broker commission fee if any, and more ‘longer’ you hold your positions, then more bigger your ‘swap’ income.

I hope I’m not answering you wrongly, and feel free to ask again since I open this thread to discuss anything let say this’ is general mix thread..lol.

Btw, my long term market bias still same,  xxxUSD down, USDxxx up.. because it’s not easy to change current major trend.

Happy Trading Brother,

MTH

 

Intuition, Experiences and Common sense..
http://www.binaryoptionsedge.com/

[BalrogTrader]

MTH2014 wrote:

• I believe that there’s no losing positions until you decide to close your floating minus positions, so as long as you have ‘strong margin’ (and this is my main trading key) there’s always probability that your floating minus became floating plus vice versa. The main point is, do you choose to stay at finite side or infinite side of the market. By go Long first, you stay at finite side of the market, on the other side if you go short first then you stay at infinite side of the market that of course more riskier than the other side.
• When SNB decide to release their Swiss franc pegged to Euro, we know that there’s huge spike of approximately 2800 pip in minutes, but since at that point my total active trades margin strength could cover 7500 pip range movement until margin called, then my account survived that huge spike, and as you ‘see’ just in approximately 5 weeks USDCHF price reverse and back to normal conditions. By open many trades from many major pairs, actually there some ‘interlocking’ each other positions and that could reduce my total exposure and keep my risk level low.

Dear Kiads,

Could we understand from the above statement that you are not using SL. Rather using the whole account as SL?

Best regards…

Nothing has ever motivated me more than this...

[GildedLining]

Something close to that. To quote Kiads from November:

“I don’t use hard SL because in my personal opinion hard SL is the one way to make your account burned.. lol. Mostly I use mental SL by looking to my floating minus percentage compare to my current equity, and of course from the beginning I prepare my trade account with enough capital to protect at least 5000 pips sudden swing for my total active trades (this is my real SL actually..lol).”
Link to quote.

This is fairly counter-intuitive to what I’ve learned so far from others, and so I am thankful to see and learn from a trade journal of someone who is successfully trading this way. Watching the balance climb from 22.3b Rupiah to 31.9b Rupiah in a month or two is… Fascinating?

Brother Kiads, thanks for your reply; you answered everything perfectly. The answers inspire more questions, though, so I will be asking more soon! (Has your health recovered well, by the way? I remember that you were on multiple weeks of bed rest a few months ago, and also had to carry a lot of stress related to family businesses. Our thoughts/hopes/prayers are with you, obviously!)

• This reply was modified 10 years, 3 months ago by GildedLining. Reason: fixed awkward rendering of link

[MTH2014]

BalrogTrader wrote:

MTH2014 (Kiads) wrote:

• I believe that there’s no losing positions until you decide to close your floating minus positions, so as long as you have ‘strong margin’ (and this is my main trading key) there’s always probability that your floating minus became floating plus vice versa. The main point is, do you choose to stay at finite side or infinite side of the market. By go Long first, you stay at finite side of the market, on the other side if you go short first then you stay at infinite side of the market that of course more riskier than the other side.
• When SNB decide to release their Swiss franc pegged to Euro, we know that there’s huge spike of approximately 2800 pip in minutes, but since at that point my total active trades margin strength could cover 7500 pip range movement until margin called, then my account survived that huge spike, and as you ‘see’ just in approximately 5 weeks USDCHF price reverse and back to normal conditions. By open many trades from many major pairs, actually there some ‘interlocking’ each other positions and that could reduce my total exposure and keep my risk level low.

Dear Kiads, Could we understand from the above statement that you are not using SL. Rather using the whole account as SL? Best regards…

Hi Brother, nice to see you again in my thread, and also Big Thank You for Brother @PMMforex for explaining exactly what I do to deal with SL (Stop Loss) that I have my own term of MSYL (Make Sure Your Loss)… lol.

Here is more explanation about this in picture example of USDCHF Monthly Chart;

You ‘see’ my explanation on chart, and judging from this ‘USDCHF’ situation, for 15 years ‘she’ only touch 0.70853 for 1 time..lol, and the last year January 2015 the huge spike down of SNB nearly ‘touch’ it again but failed.  So, we understand that from current bid price at 0.99682 to lowest at 0.70653 = 2902.9 pips range is hard to ‘touch’ because it need very huge market capital force to do that.  Simply meaning if you have minimal margin strength of 3000 pips for your total ‘buy only’ active trades, you are in ‘MC free mode’.. lol.

You also ‘see’ from this USDCHF long term chart example, that I have several active buying positions right now, and in ‘that’ buying area can you ‘see’ that this ‘area’ is a ‘swing arm’ or we could called it ‘equilibrium’ or ‘fair price’ in term of Auction Market Theory.. etc.. whatever hehehe…

This is the ‘area’ where the both forces meet and make a deal where to go next.. and it depend of where the ‘lambs’ mostly stay.. to be slaughtered hehehe..

Most of you , teaches for free by what they called themselves gurus or experts or financial strategist or whatever.. that you should ‘manage and limited your risks’ by set your SL of max 2% of your equity and put your TP at least 2 times of your SL for great risk and reward ratio of 1:2  right…. ?

Do you understand what happened if all the ‘lambs’ do exactly like that ? then a single sweep-out candle that swing up 2% and swing down 2% will clean all the lambs… without any TP touched.. hehehe.  It’s easy for ‘them’ to move the market 2% up and down if everybody already gathering around the ‘fire’ at the right time and the right place.. so, they create another ‘myth’ like ‘Session open time’ ,  ‘default’ indicators cross, bear/bull trap, etc..

Well, it’s up to you to try think like ‘them’ or became lambs.. it’s just a game of strength and manipulation..

Hope it help and best regards

Happy trading brothers..

MTH

 

 

 

 

Intuition, Experiences and Common sense..
http://www.binaryoptionsedge.com/

[Lowphat]

also keep in mind % is completely relative to equity size and $ per pip.

lets say you have $10,000 and you trade 100 units on oanda. a 2% stoploss would probably be 20,000 pips

“I believe the very best money is made at the market turns. Everyone says you get killed trying to pick tops and bottoms and you make all
your money by playing the trend in the middle. Well for twelve years I have been missing the meat in the middle but I have made a lot of
money at tops and bottoms.”
– Paul Tudor Jones

[MTH2014]

Lowphat wrote:

also keep in mind % is completely relative to equity size and $ per pip. lets say you have $10,000 and you trade 100 units on oanda. a 2% stoploss would probably be 20,000 pips

You right brother, but mostly traders can’t patiently enough to trade 100 units on Oanda while they have $10.000 equity..

and most of retail brokerages standard account allow minimum lot of 0.01 that mean 0.1 $ per pip.

So, $1000 equity could cover 10,000 pips range. I at least need 3 positions to averaging or valving my first position, then I need at least $ 3000 equity to have 10,000 pips strength with total active trades of 0.03 lot.. lol.

with this 10,000 pips strength, any pairs that bellow their parity at 1 or 100 for JPY pairs, should be ok for go long without worry.. and if your ‘go long’ pairs is actually swap positive for long positions, then you have slow cooking money machine.. hehehe

Have a nice week end everybody

MTH

 

 

Intuition, Experiences and Common sense..
http://www.binaryoptionsedge.com/

[MTH2014]

Hi Again,

Most of you already familiar with ‘Time Frames’ or TF for short, and sometime argue each other about which one is the best TF..lol.

While I keep telling you several times, that you are financial traders, which search for profit in ‘money’ not in ‘time’. So, simply you must more concern about ‘Price Frames’ rather than ‘Time Frames’.. right… ?  lol.

The “Price Frame’ is so simple, it’s only consist of ZERO Line, PARITY Line, and TWICE Line.. let’s check this example picture bellow to get more understanding about the Price Frame;

Ok, after you ‘see’ the above picture, basically I hope you understand that market price movement is only curves that cyclically back and forth around PARITY LINE..

Because the question on how often you see major pairs price ‘touch’ ZERO LINE ? could simply answered by ‘Never’ .. hahaha, and again how often you see price ‘touch’ TWICE LINE could also simply answered by ‘very rare happened’ maybe only once in 10 or 20 years range.

By Understanding this simple Price Frame, and enough capital, you could enter to this game of strength and manipulation and become a winner..

MTH

 

 

Intuition, Experiences and Common sense..
http://www.binaryoptionsedge.com/

[BalrogTrader]

Thanks Kiads,

So lets do the math:

On a 1:100 account,

To have a total order amount of 0.1 lots

One should allocate $10000

In order not to be affected from adverse price movements.

Is that correct?

Nothing has ever motivated me more than this...

[MTH2014]

BalrogTrader wrote:

Thanks Kiads, So lets do the math: On a 1:100 account, To have a total order amount of 0.1 lots One should allocate $10000 In order not to be affected from adverse price movements. Is that correct?

Yes Brother, Ideally you need $10,000.- to allow you go long 0.1 lot total active trades very safely.

But, if you play with pairs that already under their parity like NZDUSD, or AUDUSD, then the capital requirement should be less..  and if in the last 15 years history their price never ‘touch’ 0.5000 price value then you could calculate your risk range not from zero but from 0.5000 that meaning you need only $5,000.- for total 0.1 lot buy positions.

Hope it helps and best regards

MTH

 

Intuition, Experiences and Common sense..
http://www.binaryoptionsedge.com/

[skyduck]

Brother Kiads ! Thank you for nice explanation and making our concepts clear.

[MTH2014]

Thank You All,…

and keep practicing,

In every businesses including this forex business, the main purpose is to make profit and avoid or recover your losses.

So, if for example you don’t need to use any Technical or Fundamental analysis and just go blindly open your position, there’s only 2 options that will happen next;

• First option: Your position start to make profit, and in this case do you really need ‘practice’ on how to manage your profit positions ?
• Second option: Your position start to make loss, and in this case you really need ‘practice’ on how to recover your losses positions

From the above 2 options, now you understand that the only ‘skill’ needed to practice everyday is ‘recovering strategy’, and if you already become ‘recovery expert’, do you still need any analysis ?

Don’t you think that the only “EA” that could be useful is ‘recovery EA’…?.. lol. So, you could open position anywhere anytime in any direction and always ended with profit.. hehehe.

Then why we should arguing each other for creating ‘profitable’ EAs when the more logical approach is on how to recover your losing positions, because all the traders that burn their accounts has similar condition, they don’t know how to recover their losses..  and just starring their equity decreasing until zero..

Until next time,

Happy Trading and keep practicing

MTH

 

 

Intuition, Experiences and Common sense..
http://www.binaryoptionsedge.com/

[MTH2014]

Hi All,  I love Monday…

There’s nice ‘adjustment’ at the open of this week, from hourly point of view, USDCHF give me more reason to go long, and EURUSD start to go south again..

So, I try to go long with USDJPY… hahahaha…  and I projecting that this USDJPY anomaly may ‘corrected’ this week back to ‘her’ last week open price.

Happy Trading

MTH

 

 

Intuition, Experiences and Common sense..
http://www.binaryoptionsedge.com/

[MTH2014]

This reply has been reported for inappropriate content.

Hopefully I’m not wrong with my ‘old eye’ projection..

and if I’m wrong.. hahaha, that what I practice for all this years and the only skill that I have, ‘recovery mode’.. lol.

It does not matter how many times you fall in the same hole, the important thing is how quickly you can climb up again and continue the journey – MTH

Happy Trading Guys..

MTH

 

 

Intuition, Experiences and Common sense..
http://www.binaryoptionsedge.com/

[MTH2014]

MTH2014 wrote:

Hi All, I love Monday… There’s nice ‘adjustment’ at the open of this week, from hourly point of view, USDCHF give me more reason to go long, and EURUSD start to go south again.. So, I try to go long with USDJPY… hahahaha… and I projecting that this USDJPY anomaly may ‘corrected’ this week back to ‘her’ last week open price. Happy Trading MTH

Securing all positions.. in case this not turning point from UJ anomaly but only monday retrace ..lol

I’m on ‘no loss mode for UJ’ now.. hehehe, little bit over trade for UJ but ‘why not’ when I’m very sure about what I want to do..

Happy trading guys.. and keep practicing..

MTH

 

Intuition, Experiences and Common sense..
http://www.binaryoptionsedge.com/

[centuripe]

MTH2014 wrote:

Hopefully I’m not wrong with my ‘old eye’ projection.. and if I’m wrong.. hahaha, that what I practice for all this years and the only skill that I have, ‘recovery mode’.. lol. It does not matter how many times you fall in the same hole, the important thing is how quickly you can climb up again and continue the journey – MTH Happy Trading Guys.. MTH

 

Hi Kiads,

Thanks for sharing your time and experience. If you have time would you mind to explain again how do you trade with these projections. I used to watched several times your videos on your geometrical trading post but I didn’t manage to trade with that

 

Thanks again happy to see you active again here and wish you an happy new year

[MTH2014]

centuripe wrote:

Hi Kiads, Thanks for sharing your time and experience. If you have time would you mind to explain again how do you trade with these projections. I used to watched several times your videos on your geometrical trading post but I didn’t manage to trade with that Thanks again happy to see you active again here and wish you an happy new year

Hi Brother, nice to see you here.. long time no chat hahaha, and happy new year too..

Honestly, this geometrical charting projection is the most difficult for me to explaining with my limited bad English. There so many charting tools and rules to use but of course mostly we use lines and standard geometry shapes and angles.

What I do with USD/JPY use several Equidistant Channel Tool, and basic common sense about dow theory.

Ok this is small basic example on how to ‘projecting’.

Here is how we put Equidistant Channel lines to projecting next points that may happen..

Could you follow until this point ? please try with your own USD/JPY Daily chart..

Hope it help and best regards

MTH

 

 

Intuition, Experiences and Common sense..
http://www.binaryoptionsedge.com/

[centuripe]

Thanks a lot for your time

Will give it a try ;)

[MTH2014]

2016 Jan 11 – Account Journal

today result so far..

 

 

 

• This reply was modified 10 years, 3 months ago by MTH2014.

Intuition, Experiences and Common sense..
http://www.binaryoptionsedge.com/

[fuzzy]

Hi MTM

 

I used to trade (write) index options (almost 20 years ago) and I would think the same way,  place the trade – defend it until expiry.

 

Am I correct in saying that – on a particular currency, if you go long and it starts going negative you look for short opportunities ?

[Author]

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