STILL CONFUSED ABOUT TRANSIENT ZONES

[mohamed]

Yes I’m still confused about TZ . I have some questions and I need your help.
1- eurusdd said that there is no three transient zones on the same raw with correct k and h , so which raw did he mean ?? The raw of prices? and I mean here the vertical axis of prices or the raw of the same price but at different times ??? as most people understood ??
2- eurusdd said that he was talking about prices not bars . so why we consider tails of candles as top and bottom transient zones whoever price is recurrent at this tails . I think  he was speaking about middle transient zones
Waiting your answers 

[Billyon]

1. It would be extremely rare. Price row

 

2. We consider tails because the idea splintered into many other concepts

Last price in the tail may indeed be transient given it was only touched once.

 

He was not talking about middle transient zones. He was talking about price not even zones…

 

Price is recurrent 97% of the time overall as a natural “fact” of price behavior. That would have to be proven before moving forward. Then you would need probability on the deviation of price overall. Would be a pip value. Deviation as it relates to recurrence. This would be K

Very small. Microscopic

So you go to the smallest time frame and observe the action of price recurrence. Study the data and find optimal K

OK SO WHEN WE SAY OVERALL IT’S LIKE INFINITY. SO YOU CANNOT TRADE THE OVERALL CONCEPT BECAUSE YOU WOULD ONLY BE BETTING AT OVERALL EXTREME PRICE. PRICES THAT HAVE NEVER BEEN TOUCHED IN HISTORY. THINK ON IT. SO THE 97% IDEA IS JUST TO GET YOUR MENTAL JUICES RUNNING.

 

Enters H (TIME)

With H you are not talking of the nature of price overall. You have now injected segmented Time into the idea. So given a large enough data set, you run probability study on price recurrence within timed segments.  Once you get the H right you will see that price is very rarely TIME transient within your discovered setting.

Now K must be figured as well. You are again looking for a high probability deviation amount. Lets say 2 pip is what you end up with. So now you set up a method to exploit and benefit from your findings.

 

 

 

Think of this. Once in a trade, if you place you stop loss to close (ex 2 pips) to price it with be hit with a very high probability. Stop hits are your recurrence. Now very Rarely your stop will not get hit and price will run in your direction without ever returning to your entry price. It is POSSIBLY transient… HAVE TO WAIT POSSIBLY FOREVER TO PROVE IT’S TRANSIENT.

So prices that are hit Only Once are said to have a very high near 100% chance of being hit again at some point OVERALL

Very rarely will price not react in this way.

 

AGAIN

OK SO WHEN WE SAY OVERALL IT’S LIKE INFINITY. SO YOU CANNOT TRADE THE OVERALL CONCEPT BECAUSE YOU WOULD ONLY BE BETTING AT OVERALL EXTREME PRICE. PRICES THAT HAVE NEVER BEEN TOUCHED IN HISTORY. THINK ON IT. SO THE 97% IDEA IS JUST TO GET YOUR MENTAL JUICES RUNNING.

 

To see recurrence you need to be watching price very closely and be super fast to catch it. A robot will be needed. Go to the wormhole thread on FF and understanding will come.

Because this is hard to do without a bot we can use bars instead of price and even larger time frames. But we will not be following the original concept as such. We would be creating new trade able systems based on historic data related high probability setting that are easier to manage ourselves..

 

Hope that helps

• This reply was modified 10 years, 5 months ago by Billyon.

[gg53]

More advanced math reveals the following:

The Mid of Large bars (>2*ATR) reach their MID within max 24 days.

 

G.

[Billyon]

How to benefit from that is were people get discouraged.

One would need to prove the probability of this themselves to have confidence that the figure speaks truth. One would need a plan and understanding on actions to take given the rare event takes place while they are in the trade and in deep drawdown. This plan of action will make one viable to trade many systems there afterwards.

 

[mohamed]

Billyon wrote:

1. It would be extremely rare. Price row 2. We consider tails because the idea splintered into many other concepts Last price in the tail may indeed be transient given it was only touched once. He was not talking about middle transient zones. He was talking about price not even zones… Price is recurrent 97% of the time overall as a natural “fact” of price behavior. That would have to be proven before moving forward. Then you would need probability on the deviation of price overall. Would be a pip value. Deviation as it relates to recurrence. This would be K Very small. Microscopic So you go to the smallest time frame and observe the action of price recurrence. Study the data and find optimal K OK SO WHEN WE SAY OVERALL IT’S LIKE INFINITY. SO YOU CANNOT TRADE THE OVERALL CONCEPT BECAUSE YOU WOULD ONLY BE BETTING AT OVERALL EXTREME PRICE. PRICES THAT HAVE NEVER BEEN TOUCHED IN HISTORY. THINK ON IT. SO THE 97% IDEA IS JUST TO GET YOUR MENTAL JUICES RUNNING. Enters H (TIME) With H you are not talking of the nature of price overall. You have now injected segmented Time into the idea. So given a large enough data set, you run probability study on price recurrence within timed segments. Once you get the H right you will see that price is very rarely TIME transient within your discovered setting. Now K must be figured as well. You are again looking for a high probability deviation amount. Lets say 2 pip is what you end up with. So now you set up a method to exploit and benefit from your findings. Think of this. Once in a trade, if you place you stop loss to close (ex 2 pips) to price it with be hit with a very high probability. Stop hits are your recurrence. Now very Rarely your stop will not get hit and price will run in your direction without ever returning to your entry price. It is POSSIBLY transient… HAVE TO WAIT POSSIBLY FOREVER TO PROVE IT’S TRANSIENT. So prices that are hit Only Once are said to have a very high near 100% chance of being hit again at some point OVERALL Very rarely will price not react in this way. AGAIN OK SO WHEN WE SAY OVERALL IT’S LIKE INFINITY. SO YOU CANNOT TRADE THE OVERALL CONCEPT BECAUSE YOU WOULD ONLY BE BETTING AT OVERALL EXTREME PRICE. PRICES THAT HAVE NEVER BEEN TOUCHED IN HISTORY. THINK ON IT. SO THE 97% IDEA IS JUST TO GET YOUR MENTAL JUICES RUNNING. To see recurrence you need to be watching price very closely and be super fast to catch it. A robot will be needed. Go to the wormhole thread on FF and understanding will come. Because this is hard to do without a bot we can use bars instead of price and even larger time frames. But we will not be following the original concept as such. We would be creating new trade able systems based on historic data related high probability setting that are easier to manage ourselves.. Hope that helps

Billyon wrote:

1. It would be extremely rare. Price row

2. We consider tails because the idea splintered into many other concepts

Last price in the tail may indeed be transient given it was only touched once.

He was not talking about middle transient zones. He was talking about price not even zones…

Price is recurrent 97% of the time overall as a natural “fact” of price behavior. That would have to be proven before moving forward. Then you would need probability on the deviation of price overall. Would be a pip value. Deviation as it relates to recurrence. This would be K

Very small. Microscopic

So you go to the smallest time frame and observe the action of price recurrence. Study the data and find optimal K

OK SO WHEN WE SAY OVERALL IT’S LIKE INFINITY. SO YOU CANNOT TRADE THE OVERALL CONCEPT BECAUSE YOU WOULD ONLY BE BETTING AT OVERALL EXTREME PRICE. PRICES THAT HAVE NEVER BEEN TOUCHED IN HISTORY. THINK ON IT. SO THE 97% IDEA IS JUST TO GET YOUR MENTAL JUICES RUNNING.

Enters H (TIME)

With H you are not talking of the nature of price overall. You have now injected segmented Time into the idea. So given a large enough data set, you run probability study on price recurrence within timed segments. Once you get the H right you will see that price is very rarely TIME transient within your discovered setting.

Now K must be figured as well. You are again looking for a high probability deviation amount. Lets say 2 pip is what you end up with. So now you set up a method to exploit and benefit from your findings.

Think of this. Once in a trade, if you place you stop loss to close (ex 2 pips) to price it with be hit with a very high probability. Stop hits are your recurrence. Now very Rarely your stop will not get hit and price will run in your direction without ever returning to your entry price. It is POSSIBLY transient… HAVE TO WAIT POSSIBLY FOREVER TO PROVE IT’S TRANSIENT.

So prices that are hit Only Once are said to have a very high near 100% chance of being hit again at some point OVERALL

Very rarely will price not react in this way.

AGAIN

OK SO WHEN WE SAY OVERALL IT’S LIKE INFINITY. SO YOU CANNOT TRADE THE OVERALL CONCEPT BECAUSE YOU WOULD ONLY BE BETTING AT OVERALL EXTREME PRICE. PRICES THAT HAVE NEVER BEEN TOUCHED IN HISTORY. THINK ON IT. SO THE 97% IDEA IS JUST TO GET YOUR MENTAL JUICES RUNNING.

To see recurrence you need to be watching price very closely and be super fast to catch it. A robot will be needed. Go to the wormhole thread on FF and understanding will come.

Because this is hard to do without a bot we can use bars instead of price and even larger time frames. But we will not be following the original concept as such. We would be creating new trade able systems based on historic data related high probability setting that are easier to manage ourselves..

Hope that helps

Thank you for your reply .The question is ; why didn’t any one program an indicator for calculating the correct value of  h and k  for transient zone ???

[Billyon]

many indicator have been made. KPRSA, ZELO, Northtrader, KPRSA, Freefox, SaverO, and many others created indicators.

[mohamed]

Billyon wrote:

many indicator have been made. KPRSA, ZELO, Northtrader, KPRSA, Freefox, SaverO, and many others created indicators.

Those indicators calculate the whole percentage of transient zones for certain number of bars . we need indicator that can calculate the frequency of  TZ in the same raw with  different values of  H and  K

[mohamed]

((Last price in the tail may indeed be transient given it was only touched once.))
That says that k value is constant at top and bottom TZ and equal .1 pip !!!

[Billyon]

That is only a possibility. The last price have indeed been touched more than once.

 

Still you can test an idea of recurrence to the last price in a bar regardless of how many times it was touched during that active bar. This will be based on bar as such.

 

((Those indicators calculate the whole percentage of transient zones for certain number of bars . we need indicator that can calculate the frequency of  TZ in the same raw with  different values of  H and  K))

First, so you are not confused you must understand TZ vs HTZ and express your idea from that understanding. TZ are prices that have only been touched once in the history of the market. They remain TZ until that price is revisited and they then become recurrent. What you are speaking of in your statement above is HTZ.  What does it benefit to know the frequency of HTZ at the same price? Would this not be the same thing you see at support and resistance levels? I would say it’s not so rare and focus on the H itself will give you enough to work with. K has been the topic of debate due to it never been fully disclosed but it stands to reason that it is the natural vibration of price movements. Strong deviations from the norm may give you a chance to benefit.

KPRSA’s recurrent statistic indy is very useful!

 

K may or may not be 1 pip. You still have to deal with spread.  H may even be 1…

 

[metta88]

mohamed wrote:

Yes I’m still confused about TZ . I have some questions and I need your help. 1- eurusdd said that there is no three transient zones on the same raw with correct k and h , so which raw did he mean ?? The raw of prices? and I mean here the vertical axis of prices or the raw of the same price but at different times ??? as most people understood ?? 2- eurusdd said that he was talking about prices not bars . so why we consider tails of candles as top and bottom transient zones whoever price is recurrent at this tails . I think he was speaking about middle transient zones Waiting your answers

I think Rparm at FF was trying to do what you are talking about.

[metta88]

mohamed wrote:

Yes I’m still confused about TZ . I have some questions and I need your help. 1- eurusdd said that there is no three transient zones on the same raw with correct k and h , so which raw did he mean ?? The raw of prices? and I mean here the vertical axis of prices or the raw of the same price but at different times ??? as most people understood ?? 2- eurusdd said that he was talking about prices not bars . so why we consider tails of candles as top and bottom transient zones whoever price is recurrent at this tails . I think he was speaking about middle transient zones Waiting your answers

Also regarding your point number 1, can you point me in the direction where it has been said that there is no three transient zones on the same raw with correct k and h . I just cant find it, I ll appreciate if you can help.

Thanks.

[Billyon]

 

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Eurusdd

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| Membership Revoked | Joined Oct 2012 | 466 Posts

Quoting LiquidGenius

I believe I see where this is going… I must say I was planning on something similar to this but didn’t quite work out how to approach it. You mentioned something interesting about the h/k values which I pondered. Then for a second my mind was blown. Well done hehe {image}

GOOD liquidgenius. Let me blow your mind now! If a bar has you rectangle then the probability the next one will have a rectangle is 0.00005463% on any time frame. NOW think what that means…..
ONE THING: $$$$

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Eurusdd

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| Membership Revoked | Joined Oct 2012 | 466 Posts

This is another way to understand the theorem..
For any price p, there is a minimum value for h such that the relative frequency of h-recurrent states associated with p goes to 1, almost surely, as time goes to infinity. Therefore, even if the relative frequency is around 85% currently or even 50%, it does not change the ultimate probability.
Now, if in the long run, the relative frequency does not go to zero, then the theorem says, that price should belong to a set of prices with that same feature and that set should be of measure zero!!!

Now, notice that a price is a real number, NOT A ZONE!

 

[Billyon]

metta88 wrote:

mohamed wrote:

Yes I’m still confused about TZ . I have some questions and I need your help. 1- eurusdd said that there is no three transient zones on the same raw with correct k and h , so which raw did he mean ?? The raw of prices? and I mean here the vertical axis of prices or the raw of the same price but at different times ??? as most people understood ?? 2- eurusdd said that he was talking about prices not bars . so why we consider tails of candles as top and bottom transient zones whoever price is recurrent at this tails . I think he was speaking about middle transient zones Waiting your answers

Also regarding your point number 1, can you point me in the direction where it has been said that there is no three transient zones on the same raw with correct k and h . I just cant find it, I ll appreciate if you can help. Thanks.

 

 

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Eurusdd

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| Membership Revoked | Joined Oct 2012 | 466 Posts

DavidRP, I do not know if you see the results you gave yelling truth at you! For example, according to your data, if time = 5mins and h=30, then 0.9% of prices are 30-transient!
Furthermore, the chance that a price is 30-transient twice in the row is 8339/6863515=0.001215.(0.12%)
Now, that is just the truth.

<b style=”font-weight: bold;”>In fact, all those probabilities will go to ZERO, almost surely as more data comes in!!!! </b>

<b style=”font-weight: bold;”>That is what the theorem says!</b>

[Billyon]

A

• This reply was modified 10 years, 4 months ago by Billyon.
• This reply was modified 10 years, 3 months ago by Billyon.

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