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AFAIK MTH2014 found that for OHLC/4 the probability is even higher.
Well possible, because when using OHLC/4 we’ve left randomness, and this statement is fully in line with my previous post.
A good trader is a realist who wants to grab a chunk from the body of a trend, leaving top- and bottom-fishing to people on an ego trip. (Dr. Alexander Elder)
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i think eurusd back again chek this
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=9013240#post9013240
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This is great! I have been quietly doing more research as well and I have some interesting finds!
I will sure to share my findings
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@fasttrade: Although the writing style and some expressions seem to be similar, I hesitate to believe he’s back. From all 10 posts (Eurusdx joined in January 2015) none contains pink or yellow background colors ;)
@admin: That would be great. Looking forward to your responses. Which topics have you studied again?This reply has been reported for inappropriate content.
lets see how he proceed then will come to know hope for best
to admin waiting for ur contribution hope this forum will again get active as its quite from some days
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So far it seems very similar to the idea of alternating zones; a top TZ being continued with a bottom TZ. will be interesting to see how this develops and how it differs..
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Although Eurusdx behaves like god, I’d like to continue my research and discussions.
Have you ever understand what the value of the stochastic indicator means and how it is calculated? In simple words it just shows the relative position of current prize (close) in comparison to the highest and lowest prize of last
xtime units (bars). Let me show you another representation of the stochastic oscillator – the Donchian channel:
Now as you may understand how the stochastic is calculated, you may realize how in the context of the similarity idea a dissimilarity can occur. It can either occur if
- a new candle breaks that high/low of last
x + 1candles or if - the oldest bar leaves that
x-window and contained the highest high or lowest low of that window.
In general, I believe that the original idea behind the stochastic indicator was to identify when prize significantly moves (as it is widely assumed that retail fx traders can’t move enough money to move market). IMHO this could be the heart of the idea that market makers have to move prizes back to regions where dissimilarity starts (maybe to unhedge former positions in other fx-correlated markets).
But back to the path … If the stochastic value is not at the critical levels of 0 or 100, then we may only see a anti-correlation (syn. dissimilarity, divergence) between stochastic value and prize itself if either 1 or 2 occurs. However, only 2 could indicate the action of a market maker/big boy. Thus, my idea was to adjust the Donchian channel and thus stochastic indicator in order to only take into account high level increases or low level decreases. This is what the next image depicts:
Do you think this could be a better tool?
Memo to myself: Maybe I should rename this thread to “Monologue on similarity” – however, I’ll use it to store some ideas and notes.
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Hmm, I do not see why the 2nd tool should be better than the classic Donchian. I guess the 2nd one is not calculated based on a constant lookback period, right?
A good trader is a realist who wants to grab a chunk from the body of a trend, leaving top- and bottom-fishing to people on an ego trip. (Dr. Alexander Elder)
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@Anti
I’m continuing my discussion here from last December
http://penguintraders.com/forums/topic/nature-of-markets-randomness-probability/page/3/#post-12762Focus, Patience, Determination & Order in chaos
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@simplex: It is based on a constant lookback period but it doesn’t repaint the upper limit (highest high) if it decreases and also not the lower limit (lowest low of period) if it increases. You’ll see what I mean if you try to overlay both images … But surely – I’m not sure if it is better. I just like to start a discussion on it.
@Saver0: Thank you that much – will follow!The era of Eurusdx seems to be over.
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It is based on a constant lookback period but it doesn’t repaint the upper limit (highest high) if it decreases and also not the lower limit (lowest low of period) if it increases.
To be honest, I’m still not sure whether this is a bug or a feature. But maybe we just have to take into account my advanced age, and I’ll see its purpose next year!
@Anti: is that a selfie above?s.
A good trader is a realist who wants to grab a chunk from the body of a trend, leaving top- and bottom-fishing to people on an ego trip. (Dr. Alexander Elder)
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ROFL. No, it’s really a feature (based on an idea for the Donchian bands from FF – search image with “multidimensional donchian channel crucialpoint”). But due to your advanced age, I’ll give up and reject that idea …
And no, it’s not a selfie. I’d never share my beauty
Before some years that was a meme, a viral gag …This reply has been reported for inappropriate content.
Yep, thank god that escalated quickly!
Rparm @ FF summarized the whole issue brilliantly in this post:
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=9019764#post9019764
Worth reading!
s.
A good trader is a realist who wants to grab a chunk from the body of a trend, leaving top- and bottom-fishing to people on an ego trip. (Dr. Alexander Elder)
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Well, I’m not sure. I wasn’t involved in any scamming. Thus, I have to judge from available posts at FF. And from those I’m not sure if Eurusdd/x is/was a scammer. But most probably I should rely on the opinion of senior members like you … But if everything was a big scam, does it mean that all concepts are worthless, too? And were the other banned members scammers, too. Or why have they been revoked?
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But if everything was a big scam, does it mean that all concepts are worthless, too?
Did you really notice any ‘concept’? IMO, a concept should at least contain a clear outline of preconditions, pairs, timeframes, risk management, rules, etc. … Have you found any of these, in the old similarity thread as well as in that new similarity revival? Following my personal perception, there was not the faintest trace of any ‘concept’ involved.
And were the other banned members scammers, too. Or why have they been revoked?
That’s a different kind of story, which until today remains completely unclear to me. I have no idea.
A good trader is a realist who wants to grab a chunk from the body of a trend, leaving top- and bottom-fishing to people on an ego trip. (Dr. Alexander Elder)
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Surely, there are conceptual ideas – not complete concept or a strategy. You can call me stupid if you want but I believe that some of those ideas may be helpful … for instance, ask GG on subsequence idea or MTH2014 for the application of subsequences (SSS indicator) and transient zones. But yes, it seems to be a hard to come up with the right idea and maybe I’ll wast my time (especially as a retarded programmer) …
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Nope, I definitely won’t call you ‘stupid’. There’s no reason to do so.
And yes: maybe there are interesting parts in the original similarity thread. On the other hand: was there any sign of substantial conceptual content in the new thread? I did not find any. And when somebody asked: ‘You don’t ask Messi how he plays …‘
Still no alarm bells ringing?
Hope this guy does not show up here.
A good trader is a realist who wants to grab a chunk from the body of a trend, leaving top- and bottom-fishing to people on an ego trip. (Dr. Alexander Elder)
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On the other hand: was there any sign of substantial conceptual content in the new thread? I did not find any.
Could have been but we’ll never know will we? Admittedly he wasn’t quite on track to share something but you never know.. Maybe that’s why I’d make an awful cop; if you can’t read the signs you don’t deserve to be around
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THANKS for good posts, discussion, ideas & warning here mates.
Finally I realized that trading his ideas must be very very careful, because trading without SL (to get a good probability of revisit >= 90%) can be very dangerous, in fact: all of my accounts are burned (although they were very promising at the beginning), and if we are using SL in trading, the probability is dropped significantly … is it really profitable, can be profitable, not profitable at all (scam) or may be i just can not find a good way to get good emotional management (besides risk / money management) ? do not know
.
A good system (indicators, EA, scripts, libraries, database, whatever) it self can not guarantee success in trading, it is depend mostly on the trader itself, not the system (a perfect entry or perfect trader), like many people said: if a same system is given to 10 peoples, may be just 1 or 2 people can get success with it, and the rest are lost …
Keltner, Donchian, BB etc are simple channel indicators used commonly in trading and can be profitable too if we know how to use them properly (just quote it from another trader, i still can not get the right way how to use it … lol …). Example of using this is (combining it with TRZ or other tools) can be seen at old thread @FF, said that the price will be inside the channel most of the time … so if price touch or going out of the channel, it will give a good sign of returning, i think we need a filter (other tool) to make it better. So to say: every system (simple one or complex one) can have good idea inside it, we just need to dig it, trying to apply it with our trading style to build our own system, just like “trying and error” method until we get a really profitable system that match our “trading character” …
Experiments of Anti above are nice (combining the channel with Stochastic), thanks @Anti for this … using Stochastic, RSI, CCI, WPR, etc will give (almost) same result or stochastic is the best among them ? ( or may be i got wrong of the true meaning of Eurusdd’s quote about the price moving is actually a “stochastic process” …
).
@Anti : do you have a statistic how many good & bad signal is given after the stochastic touch the top/bottom (100 / 0) level ? Just a blitz look at the image: shown us that after touching the top/bottom level, the price is not directly go in the opposite direction (it could be swing around first, up and down, before going to opposite direction). If we are using it at big TF, lets say D1 or H4, may be 5-10 pips can be reached at every signal (with good money management), but can give us some wrong signals if we use it on small TF like M5 or M1.
!!! Thanks again to all of you …
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@smallcat. That’s true. But I haven’t adjusted the settings. If I set the length for 1440 on M1 I’d roughly estimate that prize bounces two to three times back to 0/100 level. But my initial idea was not to use it in a similarity setup – I’d just want to share it with others that may find it interesting as now it shouldn’t give false signals in terms of range squeezes.
I think the crucial point of all methods Eurusdd once introduced is that you have to know the correct/optimal settings. Unfortunately all followers seem to trusted on the settings Eurusdd gave and never tried to understand what those correct settings represent and how they can be obtained.
I’ve thought I could use my above development for a 3-plan setup. But it’s hard to estimate the cycle length without higher programming skills. Maybe the best method would be the search for an EMA(x)/SMA(x) for each new bar which has flattest overall slope. Why? Because MAs become flat if its period equals true cycle period (cf. blue SMA in below chart):
What maybe also most followers haven’t seen is that Eurusdd wrote about MAs at babypips under his pseudonym Certainty. Another way could be the use of the ‘Trend count’ indicator developed here (although it imho underestimates the real cycle period most of the time).
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I believe that there is no such thing as an ‘optimal setting’ for a Stoch indicator. After you’ve identified ‘your’ optimal setting for the moment, be sure it has changed a few bars ago or is changing now or will change during the next following bars. Market is too fast for such an approach.
What smallcat described is the typical Stoch ambiguity. That’s why I think it’s inappropriate for at least 99% of all trading approaches. This is caused by its arithmetics, which imprisons prices within a fixed 0 … 100 scale.
What EURUSD(D/x) was rigth about: it’s all about probabilities. Look at the most recent price history, use any arithmetic approach that may seem appropriate, and try to calculate that price level the currently opening new bar will most probably hit during its lifecycle. This price level is no fixed price, it’s a zone with fuzzy borders. (Scientists: is there a bell ringing, proposing to introduce a famous physicist’s name to this discussion?)
When there is a zone of high probability, there should be zones of low probability. Where are these? Ask the ATR (one of the very few classical indicators that really makes sense for everyday use in trading).
When price enters a low probability zone, we’ve reached a point of action. ‘Action’ does not necessarily mean ‘entry’ in every case.
Those zones exist on every timeframe. This does not mean that you can calculate the coordinates of your zones for each and every bar. There are surely situations where your algorithm should honestly answer: ‘I have no idea!’ and not display anything for a certain bar.
To state it clearly: I have no ready to use solution for the above mentioned. This is what I’m working on at the moment. Open for your proposals.
s.
A good trader is a realist who wants to grab a chunk from the body of a trend, leaving top- and bottom-fishing to people on an ego trip. (Dr. Alexander Elder)
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I believe that there is no such thing as an ‘optimal setting’ for a Stoch indicator. After you’ve identified ‘your’ optimal setting for the moment, be sure it has changed a few bars ago or is changing now or will change during the next following bars. Market is too fast for such an approach.
Yes, you are right. But the identification of the state of current cycle length is just the first step. I think the real crucial point is the identification of synchronism between prize and stochastic. For my surveys I’ve used the correlation between prize and stochastic, but it seems that the deviation identification by appying Bollinger bands on both sequences is more robust. In general the idea is to identify reversal setups with a high success percentage (probability).
The reversal identification could be supported by clear method.
Edit: I can’t see why the 50 level of stochastic should be taken into consideration. (Maybe because sometimes prize bounces back from that level …
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Interesting approach!
Would you support to interpret those events of correlation dropping below zero as a non-repainting alternative to ZigZag, indicating major points of reversal? If interpreted that way, we might argue that every phase transition of CLEAR in between those points in the correct direction would indicate a possible trade entry.
On the other hand: after the 3rd event in your chart pic, you can see an obvious divergence between price and Stoch(300): Stoch slowly decreasing, while price increasing further. Good old Stoch ambiguity working against us!
Stoch level 50: since you’re using Stoch(300) in your illustration, that level 50 has no relevance. Classical interpretation of short period Stoch (like < 20 or so) would interpret the crossing of this level as a change from bull to bear market or vice versa. But as you might see from my previous post, I’m not a friend of that interpretation.
Would be interested to see your Bollinger approach, thus using standard deviation instead of Pearson correlation.
A good trader is a realist who wants to grab a chunk from the body of a trend, leaving top- and bottom-fishing to people on an ego trip. (Dr. Alexander Elder)
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Hi simplex,
thanks. I never compared the correlation with ZZ but I’ll do when I’ve finished my day job.
Regarding the 50 level … Eurusdd mentioned that one should take note of asynchronisms when stochastic value is near the critical values 0, 50, and 100. As this setup is similar to the similarity setups, the %K value was very high, too.
I haven’t coded the BB aproach yet. But what do you mean be applying standard deviation instead of correlation? SD of sochastic?
- a new candle breaks that high/low of last
).
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