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After some further investigations on Eurusdd’s concepts with some negative results I really hesitate to spend more of my free time on those topics. My last investigations were on the impact of dissimilarities on further prize behavior whereas I studied the prize-time relation for a return to these dissim-zones. The probabilities for trading the revisit of these prizes are not in your favor. However, about 1/3 of those dissim-zones occur during prize reversals. But I didn’t succeed to filter out the 2/3 that occur during trends or range-bound markets.
Today I read some other posts of another FF-guru (CrucialPoint). And while reading I had an idea how I could manage to filter some of those bad signals out. And it seems to work quite well. I just started to implement my idea and the result can be seen in the picture below. The upper part of the image shows some up and down arrows that shall indicate probable turning point candles.
But before you become too enthusiastic, I also attached some false reversal signals. There would have been 93 trades on the M1 chart since the start of November 2016. 66 trades identified real turning points or retracements greater then twice my spread for EU and 27 wrong signals. Thus, the indicator identified in 71 % turning points.
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Some additional notes on the subsequence theorem and its application on a sequence of length 5: When trying to predict the O/H/L/C-position of a last bar (out of a 5-chunk, the theorem leads to high prediction probabilities (up to 75 %). However, it fails because in many cases the open of the last bar is above/below the O/H/L/C-value of the 2nd or 3rd last bar … If we only look at those situations where the open is below/above the O/H/L/C value of the 2nd or 3rd last bar, we obtain probabilities far below 75 %.
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Hi Anti
check this post
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=627224
I hope it can help you.
Regards.
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^… would be quite curious to see some people pick this one up.. hard to make sense of what Rel is doing sometimes though..
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Hi @blueface,
I’ve read most posts of Relativity (especially the ones from babypips (What really turned my trading around)). In the beginning I’ve thought that she/he did some extensive research. However, the addition of more and more tools to the system made me hesitating to believe that there’s something in for me. But I’ll read the few from your link … Thank you!
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http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=9376532#post9376532
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@Billyon: Great if trading TZs that way works for you. However, PTZs are not intended to be a reversal signal … Eurusdds idea seems to be based on the revisit of former matured TZs and that the probability that those zones are a TZ again is very low. Thus, whenever a former matured TZ zone will be revisited and prize clears it again, you can bet on the revisit of that prize zone within the next k candles.
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How I understood Transient Zones (TZs)
Due to TZ applications of other penguintraders, I’d like to give you a hint on how I interpret Eurusdds TZ theory. Here I list the trading idea of TZs in progress (numbers refer to the numbers in image below):
- A rare event (TZ) occurs whenever prizes in h candles in front or after a candle (mid-bar) don’t hit particular prize levels within the mid-bar. (In the example below h = 30 because with that number, TZs occur with a quite low probability of 2.95 % (occurence probability) -> on average, every 34th candle is a mid-bar with a TZ.)
- Prize history continues and we extend the TZ (dashed lines) …
- … until the TZ gets broken by prize again.
- Due to the value of h we have chosen, TZs should be a quite rare event for every prize zone k. Thus, we can bet that the next potential mid-bar (these are potential TZs or left-sided TZs) won’t be a real TZ because prize will break the prize zone k within the next h candles. Thus, we can buy/sell (in the example below we would sell) if prize moved enough pips (measured as distance to the opposite border of the TZ) in order to make some profits.
If you understand this idea, I think you’ll see that it will work in all market situations (whether ranging or trending markets).
What else is needed?
The strategy will only give you some probable targets. Unfortunately, I neither had enough time nor the right programming skills to do some further tests. In order to make this strategy useable, we have to further investigate the time for clearing TZs which have been broken. Maybe it would be possible to optimize the waiting time by determining small values for h while it should be possible to maintain the occurence probability by adjusting (and determine) the prize range k.
Thus, maybe someone who just programmed a TZ indicator could add some statistics for the clearing time after the prize level of a former TZ was broken, given values for h and k.
Any ideas, comments or suggestions?
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Hi all. so yesterday I worked on the principle of similarity in the stochastic.
best regards, ТМ.
Ничто не ново под луной:
Что было, то и будет.
Я завершаю круг и - вновь
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Well done! May I ask if you made some statistics in order to check how long (on average, maximum, minimum it takes to take those dissimilarity levels out? Have you ever asked yourself why Eurusdd told in the first days of the Similarity system thread that similarity has to be there most of the time (97 %), but later on in the Stochastic-BB-method he shows charts where similarity is less present than dissimilarity? And could you explain it? As told before, I’m not sure if the similarity principle presented in the way of Eurusdd possesses any hint on future prize behavior …
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I’m not an expert on the sim system but when considering descriptive statistics about a forecasting model, average, min/max are NOT what you want. Simply put, it’s just not very helpful when it comes to making trades. This is because due to the nature of the market (news events and risk on/off environments), the mins tend to be very very low, while the maxima tend to be very high. Additionally, knowing the average will (at best) give you a good entry, however it provides no time line or price point for your stop.
Instead, frequency distributions provide a much more clear picture of what possible scenarios can look like. As a bonus, you don’t really need to do too many more calculations compared to avg/min/max to get these numbers.
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Surely, frequency distributions would provide much more information. Nevertheless, descriptive parameters can give an overview on how well dissim zones will be taken out. And guess what – in many cases it can take days, weeks, months and even years. I’ve done that before. Thus I repeat it: I can’t see any clue why you should use dissim zones for targeting. Maybe the more generalized concept of TZs (I believe that they are a general description for Eurusdds dissim targets) will give a better understanding of the nature of market (cf. Saver0’s great posts).
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In order to understand all said that EURUSD need to translate his theory into the language of mathematics and to conduct research on the history of at least 10 years. I have found a large number of regularities,the theories of Gann and I can tell you they resonate with theories EURUSDD.
Best regards, TM.
Ничто не ново под луной:
Что было, то и будет.
Я завершаю круг и - вновь
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@TraderTM: Then it’s great. If you have some time, I’d like to ask if you would share some of your knowledge regarding Eurusdd and Gann …
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I’m always willing to share knowledge. there’s a problem. I do not know English and communicate on the forum using a translator.
_______________
Bingo.
Best regards, TM.
Ничто не ново под луной:
Что было, то и будет.
Я завершаю круг и - вновь
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That’s a pity. But you can also use your first language and we can translate it using a translator …
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Hi all. The current market is. we have several zones and they are a good target because comply with the rules on zones of EURUSDD . I noted the place from which to enter the market. current goal 1.069. But remember that EURUSDD is not traded all the traffic, it was scalping trades, he chose the point of water exit.
Best regards, TM.
Ничто не ново под луной:
Что было, то и будет.
Я завершаю круг и - вновь
Готов бежать по кругу...This reply has been reported for inappropriate content.
I’m always willing to share knowledge. there’s a problem. I do not know English and communicate on the forum using a translator. _______________ Bingo. Best regards, TM.
This IMAGE is really good, i remember a LINK to Eurusdd post @FF
. Looking at the image improves my understanding on the water flow. Thank you very much TM.Tom.
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I’m not a professional in systems EURUSDD .but I’ll help if that help will be needed. see the grey rectangle? the probability that price will not leave its limits is equal to 95%. that is why this morning I went to buy. one trade is open on Friday, one today. the part of profit I closed the indicator signal CI. Summary: we have a zone from which price will come with a probability of 95%, and there is a purpose upstairs which price needs to correct, so I’m looking to purchase as close to the bottom of the rectangle.
Best regards, TM.
Ничто не ново под луной:
Что было, то и будет.
Я завершаю круг и - вновь
Готов бежать по кругу...This reply has been reported for inappropriate content.
This IMAGE is really good, i remember a LINK to Eurusdd post @FF
. Looking at the image improves my understanding on the water flow. Thank you very much TM.Tom.
I’m glad if I could do something to help
Ничто не ново под луной:
Что было, то и будет.
Я завершаю круг и - вновь
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@TraderTM: Very interesting. How did you come up with the 95 % probability of that region? Is it due to Similarity or TZ theories? Would be great if you could discuss that point. Many thanks in advance!
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Very interesting. How did you come up with the 95 % probability of that region? Is it due to Similarity or TZ theories? Would be great if you could discuss that point. Many thanks in advance!
It’s just. see, differences began at point A and ended at point В, you need this time to note the minimum and maximum that will give you a rectangle now, until there is a new discrepancy, the price will remain in the square with a probability of 95%( this statistic EURUSDD)
I’m still working on TZ and I think in the future we can discuss.
Best regards, TM.
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Ничто не ново под луной:
Что было, то и будет.
Я завершаю круг и - вновь
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Ah, ok. Now I remeber that part. Thank you very much!
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Thanks TM. Regarding this rectangle, is there a rule how big is the distance between Min & Max, so we can say that this 95% can be applied ? And how long (time/bars) the price will stay in the rectangle ? Does it hold the duration of Sim – Dissim, after the Similarity point is found ?
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Thanks TM. Regarding this rectangle, is there a rule how big is the distance between Min & Max, so we can say that this 95% can be applied ? And how long (time/bars) the price will stay in the rectangle ? Does it hold the duration of Sim – Dissim, after the Similarity point is found ?
The rules of the minimum and maximum no, they can be arbitrary. The price will remain there with probability of 95% until there is a new dis-sim. look at the picture, the price went down 2 but met strong resistance. the top is still 2 strong areas, so before we go down, we can try to come to these areas.
Ничто не ново под луной:
Что было, то и будет.
Я завершаю круг и - вновь
Готов бежать по кругу...
. Looking at the image improves my understanding on the water flow. Thank you very much TM.
. Looking at the image improves my understanding on the water flow. Thank you very much TM.
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