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- FX volume is price therefore price can’t precede price.if you only use a tick chart to trade on what moves the market then. there is no vol for a tick chart because vol and price are not 2 separate entities.this is only my perspective but i can see your perspective also. imho there is no right or wrong between perspectives
The FACTS in FX market are: Volume precede Price and move the market.
“I believe the very best money is made at the market turns. Everyone says you get killed trying to pick tops and bottoms and you make all
your money by playing the trend in the middle. Well for twelve years I have been missing the meat in the middle but I have made a lot of
money at tops and bottoms.”
– Paul Tudor Jones2: Even Typical price will result in very jagged indicator. Using MA will result in lagging. Better to use DELTA between two MA’s of Typical price. Problem
Well, the difference between two MAs is also lagging as it is a function of the MA values itself
Oh, really? Price(t1) = 6, Price(t2)=7 —> Diff=1. MA(t1)={4,5,6), MA(t2)={4,5,6,7) —> MA(t1,3)=5, MA(t2,3)=6 —> Diff=1 So, in the above private case, MA’s Diff is equal to actual price Diff. and that’s just simple SMA. So your statement isn’t ALWAYS right… It’s so easy to throw pseudo-math statements and theories, without actually digging into the facts… G.
Surely, it’s not always true. You can always create situations in which MA difference is even leading. But in most cases it won’t. And you only use two means – not a moving average, as MA1 includes 3 values, but MA2 four. What kind of MA is that (how would you decide when to take the last 3, when to take the last 4 numbers into account)? Don’t say that most people don’t understand math!
MA(3) uses only the last 3 values. That’s why it’s called “Moving Average”…
G.
FX volume is price therefore price can’t precede price.if you only use a tick chart to trade on what moves the market then. there is no vol for a tick chart because vol and price are not 2 separate entities.this is only my perspective but i can see your perspective also. imho there is no right or wrong between perspectivesThe FACTS in FX market are: Volume precede Price and move the market.
1. Volume is NOT price. In Forex, Volume is market activity – the number of transactions that causes a price to move.
2. Perspective and point of view can differ. Facts can’t.
3. Indicator can “Indicate” coming event – or just follow price-action in a lagging manner, which make it useless. For that purpose you should use chart candles alone.
If this discussion is about “Semantics”, “Point of View” and/or “perspective” – I’ll just leave you to further “discuss” enhancement to that issue.
G.
Guys,
I think this discussion is heating up mostly due to the lack of detailed facts in many arguments.
I’ve got some coding and more to do, so please don’t mind if I’m quitting here for a while.
s.
A good trader is a realist who wants to grab a chunk from the body of a trend, leaving top- and bottom-fishing to people on an ego trip. (Dr. Alexander Elder)
But in real life, how do you know when to use a period of 3, 4, etc.?
In real-life, I stay away from any kind of MA. It was just an example to show that your categoric statement is mathematically wrong.
G.
Guys, I think this discussion is heating up mostly due to the lack of detailed facts in many arguments. I’ve got some coding and more to do, so please don’t mind if I’m quitting here for a while. s.
Detailed FACTS doesn’t really matter.
Semantics, Point of View, and Perspective is all that matter.
I’m gone too – to reflect on other “perspectives”…
Good luck and Green Pips.
G.
agrees to disagree.
PLUR
Peace Love Unity Respect
and about the topic @anti have you seen any good video’s on inside/engulfing bars?“I believe the very best money is made at the market turns. Everyone says you get killed trying to pick tops and bottoms and you make all
your money by playing the trend in the middle. Well for twelve years I have been missing the meat in the middle but I have made a lot of
money at tops and bottoms.”
– Paul Tudor JonesHi @Lowphat,
not really. About 99.9 % of videos on candlesticks only describe how they look like, but only a small fracture give some hints what else is important. Think I never saw a good video on inside bars/engulfings. But imho some articles from fxkeys.com are worth to read, e.g.
cool thx m8
“I believe the very best money is made at the market turns. Everyone says you get killed trying to pick tops and bottoms and you make all
your money by playing the trend in the middle. Well for twelve years I have been missing the meat in the middle but I have made a lot of
money at tops and bottoms.”
– Paul Tudor JonesNice discussion, subscribed but where we go next ? searching for ‘more’ simple trading system ? are you sure ? do you need that simplicity ? is there one that fit for all ?
previous discussion give us exact example that there’s no such thing that so easily fit for all.. lol.
Even there’s so many theories about the meaning of ‘strength’.. omg.
Well actually you could still doing very well without any ‘strength’ tools, just manage you own ‘strength’ of understanding and common sense.
So, why don’t we just continue that ‘engulfing pattern specialist’ discussion..lol
MTH
Intuition, Experiences and Common sense..
http://www.binaryoptionsedge.com/The main question is, are you sure that ‘engulfing pattern’ is profitable pattern from risk and reward point of view ? from my personal opinion, ‘engulfing pattern’ is late and high risk pattern.. lol.
As we know that we could ‘find’ engulf from M1 to MN time frames, so for example in monthly chart, you can only make sure that the current pattern is ‘engulf’ after the next month..lol.
I don’t want to ‘hijack’ this thread, so only if our brother Anti, allow me to explain my limited knowledge about candles structure I will continue my contribution here.. and I will only focus on ‘wick’ patterns that still rarely discussed in public forum.
In general, we know that currencies ‘strength’ or ‘power’ or whatever we called it, is interact each others in ‘auction process’ and ‘visualized’ in graphic usually with statistical ‘chart’ form, and for example in candlestick chart, the most interaction between two currencies ‘represent visually’ in their ‘wicks’ not in their candle ‘bodies’. So, learning the ‘wicks’ formation will give you visual information about what market ‘want to do next’… lol.
MTH
Intuition, Experiences and Common sense..
http://www.binaryoptionsedge.com/The main question is, are you sure that ‘engulfing pattern’ is profitable pattern from risk and reward point of view ? from my personal opinion, ‘engulfing pattern’ is late and high risk pattern.. lol. As we know that we could ‘find’ engulf from M1 to MN time frames, so for example in monthly chart, you can only make sure that the current pattern is ‘engulf’ after the next month..lol. I don’t want to ‘hijack’ this thread, so only if our brother Anti, allow me to explain my limited knowledge about candles structure I will continue my contribution here.. and I will only focus on ‘wick’ patterns that still rarely discussed in public forum. In general, we know that currencies ‘strength’ or ‘power’ or whatever we called it, is interact each others in ‘auction process’ and ‘visualized’ in graphic usually with statistical ‘chart’ form, and for example in candlestick chart, the most interaction between two currencies ‘represent visually’ in their ‘wicks’ not in their candle ‘bodies’. So, learning the ‘wicks’ formation will give you visual information about what market ‘want to do next’… lol. MTH
thank you for your knowledge and that you share them! This is interesting. And what if to make an oscillator which will draw only the shadows of the candles? something similar like the screenshotНичто не ново под луной:
Что было, то и будет.
Я завершаю круг и - вновь
Готов бежать по кругу...The main question is, are you sure that ‘engulfing pattern’ is profitable pattern from risk and reward point of view ? from my personal opinion, ‘engulfing pattern’ is late and high risk pattern.. lol. As we know that we could ‘find’ engulf from M1 to MN time frames, so for example in monthly chart, you can only make sure that the current pattern is ‘engulf’ after the next month..lol. I don’t want to ‘hijack’ this thread, so only if our brother Anti, allow me to explain my limited knowledge about candles structure I will continue my contribution here.. and I will only focus on ‘wick’ patterns that still rarely discussed in public forum. In general, we know that currencies ‘strength’ or ‘power’ or whatever we called it, is interact each others in ‘auction process’ and ‘visualized’ in graphic usually with statistical ‘chart’ form, and for example in candlestick chart, the most interaction between two currencies ‘represent visually’ in their ‘wicks’ not in their candle ‘bodies’. So, learning the ‘wicks’ formation will give you visual information about what market ‘want to do next’… lol. MTH
thank you for your knowledge and that you share them! This is interesting. And what if to make an oscillator which will draw only the shadows of the candles? something similar like the screenshotHi Brother, for ‘wick’ oscillator you could search for wick-o-gram indicator on FF or TSD, but for wick patterns analysis what you need is only naked candlestick chart.
MTH
Intuition, Experiences and Common sense..
http://www.binaryoptionsedge.com/Ok, this is example of engulfing pattern types and you could see that you can’t only rely on the pattern itself but you should also look at where this pattern show up and still need other references to make decision and that will make ‘late’ decision and increase your trading risk.
In the other hand, if you study the ‘wick’ formations, actually you just learn the basic of ‘dow theory’ you learn about high / low condition comparison.
MTH
Intuition, Experiences and Common sense..
http://www.binaryoptionsedge.com/@MTH2014 (Kiads): You’re as welcome as everybody else to contribute here. Especially your last post contains an important point. Especially the wick that has been formed by the close in the mid-range of the candle is very important as it is a good visualization which side of the market (buyers or sellers) were stronger during the last seconds/minutes of a candle’s lifetime. Long ago I’ve tried to quantify the strength of a movement (momentum) only using wicks. Unfortunately I was not able to derive a universal formula.
The main question is, are you sure that ‘engulfing pattern’ is profitable pattern from risk and reward point of view ? from my personal opinion, ‘engulfing pattern’ is late and high risk pattern.. lol. As we know that we could ‘find’ engulf from M1 to MN time frames, so for example in monthly chart, you can only make sure that the current pattern is ‘engulf’ after the next month..lol. I don’t want to ‘hijack’ this thread, so only if our brother Anti, allow me to explain my limited knowledge about candles structure I will continue my contribution here.. and I will only focus on ‘wick’ patterns that still rarely discussed in public forum. In general, we know that currencies ‘strength’ or ‘power’ or whatever we called it, is interact each others in ‘auction process’ and ‘visualized’ in graphic usually with statistical ‘chart’ form, and for example in candlestick chart, the most interaction between two currencies ‘represent visually’ in their ‘wicks’ not in their candle ‘bodies’. So, learning the ‘wicks’ formation will give you visual information about what market ‘want to do next’… lol. MTH
thank you for your knowledge and that you share them! This is interesting. And what if to make an oscillator which will draw only the shadows of the candles? something similar like the screenshotHi Brother, for ‘wick’ oscillator you could search for wick-o-gram indicator on FF or TSD, but for wick patterns analysis what you need is only naked candlestick chart. MTH
Thank you very much Bro.
Ничто не ново под луной:
Что было, то и будет.
Я завершаю круг и - вновь
Готов бежать по кругу...Look at the image below:
What do the wicks tell us here? Candle 1 which follows after a bullish signal (hammer) has an extraordinarily high upper wick. This wick was produced by strong bulls that brought prize to the level of about 1.08805 but then couldn’t hold the run of bears. Thus, prize dropped near its open at the end of that candle’s lifetime. Thus, both candles (1 and the preceding one) in combination tells me that there is still an indecision between buyers and sellers. However, if you are an aggressive trader, you could have opened a trade as soon as the prize went some ticks above the previous candle’s high. Now you see why this may be risky.
Candle 2 is the first candle which tells me that bulls won the battle indicated by 1’s upper wick. Nevertheless, candles 3 and 4 show weakness of bulls again. Maybe now you ask when you should go long or when your trade is most safe. The answer to that question is that you never can be sure for 100 %. Prize can turn always! But there are some scenarios that make me more confident:
- What happened before a particular candle.
- How did the candle close in relation to its high and low.
I think point no. 1 should be clear as this is what I’ve talked about in my post of page 1. The more interesting point is how a candle closes in relation to its high and low.
There is a quite simple rule regarding the number of buyers and sellers during the lifetime of a candle. If the close is above the mid-range of a candle, then there were more buyers than sellers. If it is below the mid-range, then there were more sellers. Therefore I know that a candle is strong if its close is above the 50 % Fibonacci line. This may give you the overall picture.
My simplistic view of the evolution of a candle is quite simple (regarding Occams razor):
- For bull candle: prize opens, goes to low, then to high and finishes at close.
- For bear candle: prize opens, goes to high, then to low and finishes at close.
(In most cases that is the way the prize goes. However, there are sometimes exceptions.) When you follow that prize path you may also se a potential shift in momentum. For instance, a big bull candle with a big upper shadow can mean that prize will build a bear candle or a candle with a long lower shadow next.
@MTH2014 (Kiads): You’re as welcome as everybody else to contribute here. Especially your last post contains an important point. Especially the wick that has been formed by the close in the mid-range of the candle is very important as it is a good visualization which side of the market (buyers or sellers) were stronger during the last seconds/minutes of a candle’s lifetime. Long ago I’ve tried to quantify the strength of a movement (momentum) only using wicks. Unfortunately I was not able to derive a universal formula.
Thank You Brother,
And here is what I know, example of one type of wicks formation with good probability and result consistency.
And by looking at the ascending or descending wicks formation we know that the bigger the pressure of current trend for example bearish force, then the stronger the rejection of the bull force and the result is turning point. We could see that in general that the top or the bottom of the candles body (open or close) is in similar level for all 3 candles meaning that the fair value is actually same for that 3 days/candles.
This wicks formation also appear in the middle of trend and mostly with same consistent result for at least 1x Risk : Reward Ratio.
Hope it help and best regards
MTH
Intuition, Experiences and Common sense..
http://www.binaryoptionsedge.com/Watch out from “Patterns” and Guru’s that preach about them.
Human mind is “rigged” to find “patterns” in everything we look.
I can show you clouds in the form of people faces, and in a full moon I can even point to a specific ones on the face of it…
Same goes to chart “patterns”. Your mind is playing tricks on you. The ONLY TRUE chart is Tick chart.
There is no such thing as price “Close” – it’s just an arbitary snapshot of price value at a certain arbitary time, based on TF, previously decided by the chart creator.
If there is no Price-Close, there is also no Price-Open, since it’s an immediate continuation of Price “Close”.
So, what is left are only Price “High” & Price “Low”, which are price movement within set time interval of time, based on TF.
So, if you want to understand price movement,or want to trade succesfully, just draw MA(1) on High & Low to create a “channel”.
MOST of your analysis on Price-Action should be based on that “channel”. Now you can see more clearly when price change direction, and with some training, even anticipate and “predict” when and where such events will happen.
Maybe, from that point on, You’ll understand why professional traders are using PENDING orders (Sell/Buy Stops or Buy/Sell LIMITS) instead of Market orders.
G.
Watch out from “Patterns” and Guru’s that preach about them. Human mind is “rigged” to find “patterns” in everything we look. I can show you clouds in the form of people faces, and in a full moon I can even point to a specific ones on the face of it… Same goes to chart “patterns”. Your mind is playing tricks on you. The ONLY TRUE chart is Tick chart. There is no such thing as price “Close” – it’s just an arbitary snapshot of price value at a certain arbitary time, based on TF, previously decided by the chart creator. If there is no Price-Close, there is also no Price-Open, since it’s an immediate continuation of Price “Close”. So, what is left are only Price “High” & Price “Low”, which are price movement within set time interval of time, based on TF. So, if you want to understand price movement,or want to trade succesfully, just draw MA(1) on High & Low to create a “channel”. MOST of your analysis on Price-Action should be based on that “channel”. Now you can see more clearly when price change direction, and with some training, even anticipate and “predict” when and where such events will happen. Maybe, from that point on, You’ll understand why professional traders are using PENDING orders (Sell/Buy Stops or Buy/Sell LIMITS) instead of Market orders. G.
Yes Brother G, I really understand about that..
But I believe that we could also agree that we have choice to select different point of view.. while actually we look at exactly same object.
In my personal opinion and experiences so far, the main important thing is the understanding not the rules, because rules could always change depend on the majority but understanding will always there and never change.
Approximately 20 years ago I trade stock market by text datas send by telex machine, use calculator to do paper analysis and send the decision by phone call. Can’t imagine that someday years later, I will trade using several 32 inch LED monitors and colorful candlestick charts.. lol, but hey..!! the taste of profit or lost is still the same so, there’s nothing change at all…
And of course there’s nothing to worry about that..
Happy Trading and best regards brothers..
MTH
Intuition, Experiences and Common sense..
http://www.binaryoptionsedge.com/@gg53: Yes, you’re right. The atomic unit of prize is tick. Thus, all info is contained in a tick chart. Nevertheless, most traders would be overwhelmed by data which floods into their life if they would trade tick charts. My opinion is that (especially for beginners) candlestick charts are great as they summarize what happened during the last time interval. Thus, a pin bar can give same info on market as a tick chart line which initially pointing up and then reverses. However, the biggest problems with bar/candlestick charts is that they are delayed and that the chosen time frame may not illustrate the whole story. Thus, it is important to not trade every pattern one catch, but to elect/filter those signals.
Watch out from “Patterns” and Guru’s that preach about them. Human mind is “rigged” to find “patterns” in everything we look. I can show you clouds in the form of people faces, and in a full moon I can even point to a specific ones on the face of it… Same goes to chart “patterns”. Your mind is playing tricks on you. The ONLY TRUE chart is Tick chart. There is no such thing as price “Close” – it’s just an arbitary snapshot of price value at a certain arbitary time, based on TF, previously decided by the chart creator. If there is no Price-Close, there is also no Price-Open, since it’s an immediate continuation of Price “Close”. So, what is left are only Price “High” & Price “Low”, which are price movement within set time interval of time, based on TF. So, if you want to understand price movement,or want to trade succesfully, just draw MA(1) on High & Low to create a “channel”. MOST of your analysis on Price-Action should be based on that “channel”. Now you can see more clearly when price change direction, and with some training, even anticipate and “predict” when and where such events will happen. Maybe, from that point on, You’ll understand why professional traders are using PENDING orders (Sell/Buy Stops or Buy/Sell LIMITS) instead of Market orders. G.
Dear @gg53, this is amazing message. Everyone should read this and accept this as fact. I couldn’t agree more.. Just amazing.. Thanks for this. I’m using tick charts so I know what exactly you mean. For example, RSI indicator is MUCH BETTER on ticks then on one minute or hour chart… Even when trading news. It’s simply amazing and everyone should try it. Hopefully I can show some things later. :)
@George: Would you please explain how you use the RSI? Which setting do you use? I assume that you use it for trend continuation rather than reversal identification?!
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