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Instructions on how to contribute/participate in this thread are here: post #10337.
VlanFx is the only person authorized to add or update versions to the “official” EA of this community.
Each suggested addition/filter/contribution MUST add value to the EA recent version.
Our base-line for comparison are the parameters in post #10329 (same params on all 7 Majors), and not some over optimized, specific ones.
Vluable addition can be either: Increased Profit, reduced Risk, eliminating Loosing trades, improved Win rate, etc…
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If we assume that the attached picture represents almost all financial markets, we can create a proftable, low risk, Trading System.
Basically, all we need is 3 functions.
But beware: each function must be sturdy, definite, and take almost all relevant info into consideration.
The Functions are:
Trend: returns (1) for UpTrend, (-1) for DownTrend, (0) for NoTrend/Ranging, Consolidation.
Peak: returns (1) for Peak, (0) for none.
Trough: returns (1) for Trough, (0) for none.
Logic:
We go LONG if Trend is (1) and Trough is (1).
We go SHORT if Trend is (-1) and Peak is (1).
We sit on our hands if Trend is (0)….
SL & TP will be discussed later on.
Parts of Peak & Trough are already given in different threads.
What is required is your ingenious work on DEFINITE Trend, Peak, Trough functions.
Looking forward…
G.
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Subscribed!
Still very busy with my integrated CIX, but following here with interest. Thanks a lot for starting this!
s.
A good trader is a realist who wants to grab a chunk from the body of a trend, leaving top- and bottom-fishing to people on an ego trip. (Dr. Alexander Elder)
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Basically, Peak and Trough are the same function – only in reverse.
Remember, they should be as rigid, false tolerant as possible to resemble the human eye.
G.
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How many bars can these functions lag? Because my eyes lag quite a few bars
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How many bars can these functions lag? Because my eyes lag quite a few bars
Our target is minimal lag and minimal-to-none false signals.
I just gave an initial basic guidelines, which must be followed, for coders to improve on that.
G.
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If we assume that the attached picture represents almost all financial markets, we can create a proftable, low risk, Trading System. Basically, all we need is 3 functions. But beware: each function must be sturdy, definite, and take almost all relevant info into consideration. The Functions are: Trend: returns (1) for UpTrend, (-1) for DownTrend, (0) for NoTrend/Ranging, Consolidation. Peak: returns (1) for Peak, (0) for none. Trough: returns (1) for Trough, (0) for none. Logic: We go LONG if Trend is (1) and Trough is (1). We go SHORT if Trend is (-1) and Peak is (1). We sit on our hands if Trend is (0)…. SL & TP will be discussed later on. Parts of Peak & Trough are already given in different threads. What is required is your ingenious work on DEFINITE Trend, Peak, Trough functions. Looking forward… G.
Hi G,
may i know how do you define a trend ? I am sure you are not using EMA crossThis reply has been reported for inappropriate content.
Some time ago I tried to code a trend indicator based on zigzag algorithm. But it was far away than a human eye.
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Let’s focus on one issue at a time.
Currently the task is creating a highly reliable Peak & Trough functions.
Defining Trend will be the next issue/task, after successful completion of the above task.
G.
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Not sure if this is what you want to hear. But some thoughts.
What can indicate a trend?!
* longer upper/lower shadows
* bigger up- than down-bars indicate up trend, bigger down- than up-bars indicate down trend
Thus, maybe a combination of this and other functions of price could be used to determine a trend direction. We “just” have to define a threshold to know when the market is ranging or trending. Decreasing up/down signals and increasing down/up signals than indicate probable tops and bottoms.
But no idea how to do it. Did many experiments during last months but without success.
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Not sure if this is what you want to hear. But some thoughts. What can indicate a trend?! * longer upper/lower shadows * bigger up- than down-bars indicate up trend, bigger down- than up-bars indicate down trend……
If we get so many bull/bear candles compare to bear/bull, i am sure it is tooooo late.
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My understanding of trends is that they form like an exponential function. Thus, before a trend ends, it becomes weaker. We see a decrease of bulls and an increase of bears or vice versa. Therefore, before a new trend starts, we should have reached some kind of equilibrium (bulls equals bears). If market really behaves that optimal, it should be possible to identify a new trend already after one candle of the new trend. But … markets are not that optimal, are they?
I’d like to hear what @gg53 thinks about it and if he/she has an idea how to derive a formula he/she wants to see.
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My understanding of trends is that they form like an exponential function. Thus, before a trend ends, it becomes weaker. We see a decrease of bulls and an increase of bears or vice versa. Therefore, before a new trend starts, we should have reached some kind of equilibrium (bulls equals bears). If market really behaves that optimal, it should be possible to identify a new trend already after one candle of the new trend. But … markets are not that optimal, are they? I’d like to hear what @gg53 thinks about it and if he/she has an idea how to derive a formula he/she wants to see.
He/She wants YOU to scratch your head and come out with something that WORK…
I can give you some guidelines and hints, but only after previous task is refined and completed.
G.
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My understanding of trends is that they form like an exponential function. Thus, before a trend ends, it becomes weaker. We see a decrease of bulls and an increase of bears or vice versa. Therefore, before a new trend starts, we should have reached some kind of equilibrium (bulls equals bears). If market really behaves that optimal, it should be possible to identify a new trend already after one candle of the new trend. But … markets are not that optimal, are they? I’d like to hear what @gg53 thinks about it and if he/she has an idea how to derive a formula he/she wants to see.
Agree with everything you wrote. Nearly always slope of price can be identified with S/R. Price can make a new high and it can clearly be identified as a change in behavior and you should be looking for weakness to take hold
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Thank you @e3, now we ‘only’ have to put everything together and write a function which can identify potential trends, peaks and bottoms …
@gg53: What do you mean with “take almost all relevant info into consideration”? I assume you mean the price itself and volume. Should we also take some outputs of particular indicators (that are all only functions of price and volume) into account? And what about price and volume of different currency pairs to detect tops/bottoms/trends of a single pair?This reply has been reported for inappropriate content.
Thank you @e3, now we ‘only’ have to put everything together and write a function which can identify potential trends, peaks and bottoms … @gg53: What do you mean with “take almost all relevant info into consideration”? I assume you mean the price itself and volume. Should we also take some outputs of particular indicators (that are all only functions of price and volume) into account? And what about price and volume of different currency pairs to detect tops/bottoms/trends of a single pair?
“Price” chart IS an indicator, representing manipulated “price” within deviation fluctuations.
The other factors are Volume and its direction, and Currency Strength and its direction.
G.
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Another “hint” to Peak & Trough:
Use 3 TF’s (such as D1, H4, H1).
D1 (in this example) represents the TREND direction. Let’s assume it’s UP. Goto H4.
H4 represents the Counter trend. It should be DOWN trend and start to point UP. Goto H1.
H1 represents the exact entry. It should start to point UP.
Add the early-warning Volume algo to the H4, H1.
G.
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Thanks G, great advice/help
I have always found that having multiple time frames up at once gives a depth of view, well for me anyway !!
Pip
skype : pipatronic
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Another “hint” to Peak & Trough: Use 3 TF’s (such as D1, H4, H1). D1 (in this example) represents the TREND direction. Let’s assume it’s UP. Goto H4. H4 represents the Counter trend. It should be DOWN trend and start to point UP. Goto H1. H1 represents the exact entry. It should start to point UP. Add the early-warning Volume algo to the H4, H1. G.
Hi G, all these 3 TF direction is based on TickVolume or NormalizedVolume, or?
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Another “hint” to Peak & Trough: Use 3 TF’s (such as D1, H4, H1). D1 (in this example) represents the TREND direction. Let’s assume it’s UP. Goto H4. H4 represents the Counter trend. It should be DOWN trend and start to point UP. Goto H1. H1 represents the exact entry. It should start to point UP. Add the early-warning Volume algo to the H4, H1. G.
Hi G, all these 3 TF direction is based on TickVolume or NormalizedVolume, or?
You can use TickVolume Above/Below “0” as good indication of “Trend”.
G.
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Finding Peak & Trough by Volume:
In this case we are in a general Down-Trend, so we need to find Peaks to enter SHORT.
The Volume_Oscillator, with a few enhancements, does a pretty good job. Minimal to zero LAG, Minimal to zero false signals.
Bars are colored by the swing rule found in the “True Bars/Candles and Market Sentiment” thread. So for down-trend SHORT entry we are looking at the Green bars area.
G.
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Here are the Troughs, accurate even on M1, Filtered by Colored bars per Swing rule.
We are in an Up-Trend, so we look for Troughs in the Orange bars areas.
G.
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Very interesting G, I have posted below a copy of your chart USDJPY M30 with the volume attached for comparison – rather strange !!
EDIT sorry – not strange, need to look at how volume oscillators are formulated to understand
Pip
skype : pipatronic
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Ahh, finally something. I’ll look into this too. I think we can use something like this for tick charts. Probably less drawdown. I tried regular RSI indicator on tick and it was amazing, actually. Maybe it’s possible to use just RSI on them…?
Of course NOT on bigger charts… It’s useless.
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