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Forgot to quote simplex, sorry. simplex, this one is for you! …
Thanks a lot, GU_Night! So basically you’re waiting for two opposite PTZs and then set up your trade heading for the older one? Did I get that right?
I did understand it the other way around: He waits for two opposite PTZs and trades in the direction of the second PTZ. He enters when price gets close the first PTZ (which might be a CTZ at the time of his entry) and then trades towards the second PTZ.
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Hey Guys!
We have problem trade TZ because of k.
When Eurusdd posted TZ theory, he trade 1-5 Min TF,
so he said k must be small general and he scalped 1-10 pip.
An idea came to me when i am in toilet
I remember Pip is revoked when he posted a discussion on stochastic process.
So i read stochastic, Markov and Eurusdd’s post to find k.
When Eurusdd posted TZ theory, he said k in general must be small
and he trade 1-5 min that time, he scalped 1-10 pip.
To compare something, they must have same quantity
To compare zone, they must have same height, right?
Like a day have 2 state either rainy or sunny. a day have 24 hours.
And a zone need to have same k, or height.
A zone have 2 states, either transient and recurrent.
To trade transient zone, we need another zone as a target, in our case, a recurrent zone.
Our trade have problem because price still in recurrent zone.
Eurusdd’s image:
I think Jay found something like k but he doesn’t know that is k.
He said his exit is using TZ, and he trade pull back,
so that his PTz target is recurrent zone and price will have high chance of return.
He entry is maybe in transient zone or something like that.
OR I AM WRONG?
Why Eurusdd doesn’t correct us or want to mislead us?
Did FF pay Eurusdd to act like this? I still not sure Eurusdd or “his teammate” acted that.
Because broker scare us will find out their price correction or intervention?
Eurusdd’s post:
A guy can wrote like this, why he commit a scam like a amateur?
I maybe wrong !!!
If i am right, I will send my little indicator with you guys via PM to show that where is price recurrent or transient later.
I dont know but i think WRB-Hiden Gap and TZ share same some characteristic,
that why i can scalp with small loss and long series of small win.
When i try to hold trade longer, that window is close, so i hit a large loss like yesterday.
So depend on TF, window will be vary.
Just some thought
Please share what you think!
Have a great day!
Zelo
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Oh man Zelo, there are many thoughts mixed up in your brain. I will try to express some of my thoughts to them, beware they are only thoughts nothing i got proof as i am on the same searching journey as most of us here.
“so he said k must be small general and he scalped 1-10 pip.” later “And a zone need to have same k, or height.”
first question..what does he mean with in general…? 80% of the time , 60%, 51%
So in using the term “in general” i suppose that we couldn´t take k as a static value.
I remember reading statements of kprsa that the biggest flaw in his recurrence_statistic indicator is that it calculates the probabilities regarding the bars, while the concept is all about the prices.
I´m not sure if focusing on Eurusdd s way of scalping is the correct point of view, because as we later had to realize that he didn´t trade these concepts successfully. I would think that it would be more beneficial to focus on Jays way. And he isn´t a scalper..thats for sure.
I already linked to a post from you where you shared some stats. Jay said you were correct on them..
http://www.ff.com/showthread.php?p=7904030#post7904030
If you would come up with a conclusion of your thoughts regarding the intentions of some people..do you think it would help you? If not disregard those
thoughts because they are only distracting you from whats important.
We arrived with some good posts here..lately GU_Night who posted what he´s doing…and i think is quite the same what Jay does.
surely as you can see in my not structured post…you got many thoughts up in my mind spinning.. I´m not sure if this is a good thing 
Maybe i can come back later and add thoughts when i have a clearer picture ..atm i´m confused
"A dream you dream alone is only a dream. A dream you dream together is a reality." (John Lennon)
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I remember reading statements of kprsa that the biggest flaw in his recurrence_statistic indicator is that it calculates the probabilities regarding the bars, while the concept is all about the prices.
Bartleby, kprsa is completely right.
What i am want to bring into discussion is that k, or height of zone. like group of price.
e.g: a recurrent zone from 1.23400 to 1.23500 and a transient zone from 1.23500 to 1.23600. k = 100
I´m not sure if focusing on Eurusdd s way of scalping is the correct point of view, because as we later had to realize that he didn´t trade these concepts successfully. I would think that it would be more beneficial to focus on Jays way. And he isn´t a scalper..thats for sure.
Yes, we should not focus on scalping, we can choose any style we like.
Jay is the living proof. I am very admire him.
I said 2 times i’m could wrong. So any ideas is welcome.
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Sorry Bartleby, i hit wrong button, i click quote button but hit at report, my bad
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My Noob personal point of view about TZ and RZ..
Have a nice weekend.. Guys..
MTH
Intuition, Experiences and Common sense..
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… I think Jay found something like k but he doesn’t know that is k.
He said his exit is using TZ, and he trade pull back, so that his PTz target is recurrent zone and price will have high chance of return. He entry is maybe in transient zone or something like that. OR I AM WRONG? Why Eurusdd doesn’t correct us or want to mislead us? Did FF pay Eurusdd to act like this? I still not sure Eurusdd or “his teammate” acted that. …Hi mate,
I am not belong to “Eurusdd teammate” (not qualified
). But i think you are wrong about Eurusdd. I am sure Eurusdd does not meant to mislead every body, he just want every trader work hard, finding the puzzle he put every where in the thread (so to say, he did not hide anything. It is there, we must find it and put it together.). And with his ability, he can get money easily, so it does not make sense if he needs money from someone (FF) to do something , he does not need to do this. This is just my opinion mate …About the “k”, i am agree that it is the height of a zone or a group of price that does not included/calculated in “k”prsa’s code. I remember a nice code for ninja written by an Indian profile friend, it is about price (not bar) if i am not wrong. Still trying to understand it until now…
Eurusdd said about the static price of k (fixed value, but i am not sure it is same for all TF or it must be same for each TF), and he also said that k can be dynamic, so it is depend on the current bar … may be some % (1-10%) of the bar ?Sorry for my bad English, it is not my mother language bro
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Forgot to quote simplex, sorry. simplex, this one is for you! …
Thanks a lot, GU_Night! So basically you’re waiting for two opposite PTZs and then set up your trade heading for the older one? Did I get that right?
If yes, does it work and do you have any success stats?
At first you state ‘Darkslategray rectangles are H=20‘, and later ‘I want to see a (P)TZ on one side that is not taken out within 20-30 bars‘. So there seems to be some kind of fine-tuning involved. How do you find your particular value of h? Just visually? Maybe statistically?
And most important: may I interpret your post so that there’s more intuition involved in your entries than hard rules or math? I’m asking this because intuition is a fine tool but I don’t dare to code this in an EA or indicator! When math is involved, coding becomes much simpler!
Cheers, simplex
I will try it again with a picture. This time I will try to explain how FX-Jay trades, what I explain is what he calls “a hybrid of the main strategy”. All the trades he mentioned in that week looked similar like the way I explain in the picture below. And then I talk about, the GBPAUD, GBPJPY, EURNZD, NZDCHF, EURJPY trades in the last week of November. In the picture below it is EURJPY.
For me it is clear that it has to do with a confirmed TZ on one side and a PTZ on the other side, and trading in the direction of the PTZ and away from the confirmed TZ, it is as simple as that. Everything more said about it will make it more difficult which is not necessary in my opinion. I understand the confusion because price makes a new PTZ at the time from entry on the EURCAD trade. But I don’t count that one. The same is true for the example below.
There is mathematical support for it, with this formula given by kprsa (P(h)-P(x))/(100%-P(x))
He ‘locks up” price between time(1) and time(2) and price (A) and price(B).
(1)is the expired confirmed TZ time
(2) is the expiring from the PTZ in this case the expiring from the H4 PTZ
(A) is the confirmed transient zone.
(B) is the PTZ.
The prices between A and B have a good change to be hit between 1 and 2, in this idea.
Entering nearby the confirmed TZ (A) gives simply the best risk reward, but it depends on ones personality if he wants to enter the trade earlier, price comes not always back to the confirmed TZ for the best entry.
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This reply was modified 11 years, 4 months ago by . Reason: Edited to include screenshot to make it easier :)
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There are children playing in the streets who could solve some of my top problems in physics, because they have modes of sensory perception that I lost long ago. ~Oppenheimer
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FX-Jay shared some setups with SL, TP and entry, so not difficult to understand the mechanics.
The target PTZ is the first PTZ in a new direction with previous opposite PTZ becoming a true TZ.
TP is always a bit lower than PTZ because of k.
But there is still a missing link, my success rate trading this kind of setups is nowehere near 90%+…
Recurrence as biggest defense and weakness of the market at the same time
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Why Eurusdd doesn’t correct us or want to mislead us? Did FF pay Eurusdd to act like this? I still not sure Eurusdd or “his teammate” acted that. Because broker scare us will find out their price correction or intervention?…
A guy can wrote like this, why he commit a scam like a amateur? …
Hey Zelo,
Nice post! You mentioned many open questions which surely many of us are interested in – including me. I’d like to share my opinion in two different posts.
This one is about EURUSDD’s supposed intentions. I just stopped speculating about that. It’s just not important, IMO.
What I’m still grateful for is the fact that his thread pointed me to a different way of looking at price data as compared to classical Technical Analysis. What I’m working on at the moment is my personal understanding of what this means for practical trading, and expanding stats to find a sound basis for a strategy.
None of us does really know EURUSDD’s personal intentions – except, and this is an assumption with a non-zero probabilty
– that he already joined this community, for whatever reason.Cheers, simplex
A good trader is a realist who wants to grab a chunk from the body of a trend, leaving top- and bottom-fishing to people on an ego trip. (Dr. Alexander Elder)
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FX-Jay shared some setups with SL, TP and entry, so not difficult to understand the mechanics.
The target PTZ is the first PTZ in a new direction with previous opposite PTZ becoming a true TZ.
TP is always a bit lower than PTZ because of k.
But there is still a missing link, my success rate trading this kind of setups is nowehere near 90%+…
I can not imagine that someone who has a winnings ratio >90% puts his stops at that place, the probability is lower in my opinion but that doesn’t mean it is improbable. If that probability is 30% then you will lose around 30% of the trades.
There are children playing in the streets who could solve some of my top problems in physics, because they have modes of sensory perception that I lost long ago. ~Oppenheimer
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When Eurusdd posted TZ theory, he trade 1-5 Min TF, so he said k must be small general and he scalped 1-10 pip.
According to my analysis: yes, k has to be very small if you want to achieve that famous 97 % success rate. I found that simply scalping the M5 and expecting 1-10 pips at 97 % will definitely not work. With a properly chosen k, it might work out at H1 or H4, but whenever you bring proper SL levels into play your R:R ratio will be close to zero. Without a properly set SL you might easily achieve those 97 %, but the remaining 3 % might easily blow your account. A few pips more per trade and a hit rate between 65 and 80 %, with a reasonable R:R, this is my goal for the moment.
To compare something, they must have same quantity To compare zone, they must have same height, right?
Absolutely correct! I already ran stats regarding height of a PTZ vs. probability of resolving. Simply said: the lower a PTZ is, the higher its probability of full resolving. Stats like that can easily be used to define some stationary value of k to achieve a predefined success rate. But remember: questions about TP, SL, R:R would still be open.
Over this weekend I will try to equip my Recurrence Stats Indi with a csv output, so I can provide detailed results for further use in Excel or Open Office.
To trade transient zone, we need another zone as a target, in our case, a recurrent zone.
Not necessarily! This assumption depends on a specific strategy which is not the only possible one.
A good trader is a realist who wants to grab a chunk from the body of a trend, leaving top- and bottom-fishing to people on an ego trip. (Dr. Alexander Elder)
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price still in recurrent zone. Eurusdd’s image:
I think Jay found something like k but he doesn’t know that is k. He said his exit is using TZ, and he trade pull back, so that his PTz target is recurrent zone and price will have high chance of return. He entry is maybe in transient zone or something like that. OR I AM WRONG? Why Eurusdd doesn’t correct us or want to mislead us? Did FF pay Eurusdd to act like this? I still not sure Eurusdd or “his teammate” acted that. Because broker scare us will find out their price correction or intervention? Eurusdd’s post: A guy can wrote like this, why he commit a scam like a amateur? I maybe wrong !!!Hey Buddy! Here is how FX-Jay is trading K as a target. this is also the method Eurusdd was first talking about when we brought up TZ. Remeber K and the TZ/PTZ/RZ zone are on in the same. K is the measure of width of the zone. So if you are trading K you are trading the zone. This is how EURUSDD intended for the Zones to be traded.
and I too find it very odd that some one so educated would do such a sloppy job trying to take our money. I don’t want to sound like a tin hat wearing loonie but after all of us getting banned for no reason, i wouldn’t put it past FF to have some one sabotage his account/status. again that is just a theory with no proof.
Also to every one saying to trade towards the new PTZ when they overlap, i highly recommend you guys gather the true data on the setup because I can assure it is extremely far from >90%. I am not sure how Jay and Zelo’s numbers were so high initially but after working with them a while I found the true setup that appear on chart, their success varies drastically pair to pair, time frame to frame and is far far from >90%
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Hello all, I have notice that when theres a PTZ and then it have occur a dissimilarity before or after the mid bar it always become a TZ.
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IMO, this is the most unlogic of all EURUSDD’s posts that I can recall.
My view: the height of this assumed ‘region’ A is always ZERO, because anytime during development of the center bar when price is defining a new high then the upper limit of PTZ B is being moved upwards. So height(A) = 0 and height(B) > 0. Hence ‘if market pulls back into B‘ is pure nonsense, IMO, because from the very moment the new PTZ has been formed until close of that particular bar market cannot leave this PTZ upwards: if it tries, PTZ will just grow.
Maybe I got something wrong, but this is just what I can read in this pic. If anybody can explain it better, I’d be happy to learn!
A good trader is a realist who wants to grab a chunk from the body of a trend, leaving top- and bottom-fishing to people on an ego trip. (Dr. Alexander Elder)
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Very sorry to Jay that i’m accused him on the same line with Eurusdd.
I use words wrongly. I have edited the the post long before some of you can see, anyway.
Thank you for replying, guys
I know Jay’s setup and his hybrid one.
I have my own too
As we know TZ is just the way of analyzing market,
you must define your SL and TP suitable to you.
Anyone has his own system with TZ because we have different style.
I just want discuss to see if we can benefit from k.
Because i was excited and planed to share my way of calculating probability of price go from one state to another,
and a way to find trade with small SL and high TP.
But i don’t know why i don’t feel excited any more.
Anyway, Have a great weekend!!!
Zelo
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Hello all, I have notice that when theres a PTZ and then it have occur a dissimilarity before or after the mid bar it always become a TZ.
Can you explain in detail and maybe provide a specific example? Would be interesting!
A good trader is a realist who wants to grab a chunk from the body of a trend, leaving top- and bottom-fishing to people on an ego trip. (Dr. Alexander Elder)
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Also to every one saying to trade towards the new PTZ when they overlap, i highly recommend you guys gather the true data on the setup because I can assure it is extremely far from >90%. I am not sure how Jay and Zelo’s numbers were so high initially but after working with them a while I found the true setup that appear on chart, their success varies drastically pair to pair, time frame to frame and is far far from >90%Yes, I agree with you, I got about 60-70% probability with untradable setups.This reply has been reported for inappropriate content.
Pip, I bring Eurusdd’s name because i want to discuss the k topic,
i really dont care about Eurusdd.
But i just want to know why they banned you
after you bring stochastic process and FX pricing model.
I agree with you the way trade like Jay’s picture is odd too.
I thought he tried explain to us how TZ work.
I think that Jay must be have more than 1 setup.
I remember that i read from Save0’s post, Jay use Currency Strength meter too
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Simplex, here is what i understand from the post.
I am not sure if i understand you correctly.
Sorry, Pip.
I dont remember exactly the logic i code that script.
It have some kind of filter.
I work on to much idea recently.
I am clear my indicator on my chart now. No TZ, No WRB.
Just a script that calculate the probability
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Hey Buddy! Here is how FX-Jay is trading K as a target. this is also the method Eurusdd was first talking about when we brought up TZ. Remeber K and the TZ/PTZ/RZ zone are on in the same. K is the measure of width of the zone. So if you are trading K you are trading the zone. This is how EURUSDD intended for the Zones to be traded.
Also to every one saying to trade towards the new PTZ when they overlap, i highly recommend you guys gather the true data on the setup because I can assure it is extremely far from >90%. I am not sure how Jay and Zelo’s numbers were so high initially but after working with them a while I found the true setup that appear on chart, their success varies drastically pair to pair, time frame to frame and is far far from >90%
Hmmm – again: maybe I’m wrong, but my view on TZ theory simply says that after this first TZ has been confirmed (marked K) there is simply no statistical evidence of price zone K being revisited within a certain number of bars or not. I have never seen any stats posted that deal (in a mathematically sound manner) with revisiting probabilites of price levels AFTER confirmation of a TZ.
I just don’t understand the assumption that the probability that this zone will NOT be revisited is just 0.024 * 0.024 – as the red text in the pic suggests. I would call this simply wrong.
My simple understanding of the above pic at the moment:
We defined a value h in a way that the probability of any price zone for becoming recurrent is 97 %. Such a value of h can be found and defined for most pairs / TFs. These stats look at a specific h range and will define resulting transient zones. That’s what the pic shows. IMO, after a transient zone has been confirmed the specific price level formed by this zone has no special properties at all which would emphasize the importance of that level over a randomly chosen level between the last upper and lower TZ. At least not to the extent of finding a probability of 0.024 * 0.024 for remaining transient.
Any different thoughts? Again: I’d be happy to learn!
A good trader is a realist who wants to grab a chunk from the body of a trend, leaving top- and bottom-fishing to people on an ego trip. (Dr. Alexander Elder)
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Simplex, here is what i understand from the post. I am not sure if i understand you correctly.
Sorry, Pip. I dont remember exactly the logic i code that script. It have some kind of filter. I work on to much idea recently. I am clear my indicator on my chart now. No TZ, No WRB. Just a script that calculate the probability Thanks a lot, Zelo, for clearing this up for me! Your description looks plausible to me. So just the graphical representation EU has chosen seems to be a bit unfortunate.
Cheers, simplex
A good trader is a realist who wants to grab a chunk from the body of a trend, leaving top- and bottom-fishing to people on an ego trip. (Dr. Alexander Elder)
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Hello all, I have notice that when theres a PTZ and then it have occur a dissimilarity before or after the mid bar it always become a TZ.
Can you explain in detail and maybe provide a specific example? Would be interesting!
Thats what i was trading and got some good profit but got bored waiting for a dis to occur, its not any dis. I will open a thread later or next year january, when i can and show all…
I have a question, if a system is out it will stop working? i know market is big but who knows…it can be the leverage that makes the market big?
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I will try it again with a picture.
Thanks a lot, GU_Night.
Entering nearby the confirmed TZ (A) gives simply the best risk reward, but it depends on ones personality if he wants to enter the trade earlier, price comes not always back to the confirmed TZ for the best entry.
That’s for sure! But I think that the more you’re trying to optimize your R:R by entering short close to the upper zone the higher the probability that this upper zone will be hit. It’s a slippery path, IMO.
For me it is clear that it has to do with a confirmed TZ on one side and a PTZ on the other side, and trading in the direction of the PTZ and away from the confirmed TZ, it is as simple as that.
Got that now – thanks again!
A good trader is a realist who wants to grab a chunk from the body of a trend, leaving top- and bottom-fishing to people on an ego trip. (Dr. Alexander Elder)
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Simplex, …
Zelo,
I’d like to come back to your FF post that Bartleby mentioned: http://www.ff.com/showthread.php?p=7904030#post7904030
I just want to share with you guys some stats that i found from 27 pairs.
(i have triple checked my code, i hope it right)
Timeframe: 4H
H: 30
Broker: Dukascopy
From 2010.01.04 To 2014.11.27
It is based from my understand of FX-Jay’s idea. Seem like they supports FX-Jay.For example:
if price go from bottom PTZ to top PTZ, price go back near bottom PTZ,
if it dont touch bottom PTZ when h expire (bottom is fully transient), then it will have very high chance of hitting top PTZ.% of Overlap PTZ occur vs % price touch 1st PTZ vs % price touch 2nd PTZ when 1st PTZ became fully TZ
NZDCHF: 8.55% – 77.34% – 98.32%
GBPUSD: 7.20% – 75.82% – 97.82%
EURGBP: 8.16% – 77.69% – 99.04%
CADJPY: 7.79% – 79.83% – 98.32%
AUDCAD: 7.91% – 76.16% – 98.18%
EURCAD: 8.10% – 77.54% – 99.03%
NZDJPY: 7.65% – 79.62% – 98.46%
USDJPY: 6.97% – 75.56% – 97.74%
GBPNZD: 8.44% – 79.84% – 98.76%
GBPAUD: 8.06% – 78.25% – 98.21%
EURAUD: 8.34% – 80.69% – 98.90%
GBPCAD: 7.95% – 77.43% – 98.85%
AUDUSD: 8.61% – 80.09% – 98.94%
EURNZD: 8.64% – 79.09% – 98.03%
GBPJPY: 7.25% – 78.34% – 98.56%
EURUSD: 6.89% – 77.57% – 98.86%
CHFJPY: 7.74% – 76.48% – 97.63%
USDCHF: 6.77% – 76.02% – 98.65%
AUDJPY: 7.52% – 78.57% – 97.91%
NZDUSD: 7.76% – 77.07% – 98.15%
AUDNZD: 7.71% – 79.97% – 98.47%
GBPCHF: 7.82% – 78.89% – 99.33%
EURJPY: 7.36% – 78.47% – 98.75%
AUDCHF: 9.14% – 80.66% – 99.00%
CADCHF: 8.29% – 76.94% – 98.89%
USDCAD: 7.38% – 77.30% – 98.94%
EURCHF: 5.88% – 73.94% – 97.10%I’m very interested in your results, but I believe that I didn’t get them right. So I picked up your first pair NZDCHF and tried to compile my understanding into a picture – see attachment. I just do not believe that I got it right – so could you correct my view?
In my example, after bottom PTZ was confirmed we have a remaining time for top PTZ to be confirmed: marked by the blue rectangle.
I understand your post that there is a 77 % prob. for the bottom CTZ price level to be revisited, and a 98 % prob. for the top PTZ price level to be revisited. Is this interpretation correct? And if yes, the most important question is: during which period of time should those revisits occur? Before confirming that top PTZ?
I can hardly believe that and hope that you can help me to understand your stats.
Regards, simplex
A good trader is a realist who wants to grab a chunk from the body of a trend, leaving top- and bottom-fishing to people on an ego trip. (Dr. Alexander Elder)
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This reply was modified 11 years, 4 months ago by
He said his exit is using TZ, and he trade pull back, so that his PTz target is recurrent zone and price will have high chance of return. He entry is maybe in transient zone or something like that. OR I AM WRONG? Why Eurusdd doesn’t correct us or want to mislead us? Did FF pay Eurusdd to act like this? I still not sure Eurusdd or “his teammate” acted that. …
– that he already joined this community, for whatever reason.
I dont remember exactly the logic i code that script. It have some kind of filter. 
I work on to much idea recently. I am clear my indicator on my chart now. No TZ, No WRB. Just a script that calculate the probability 
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