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there is much more to discover… maybe it will be useless, but I don’t know until I try it
I don’t think observations like those you described are useless.
Hi it is very interesting because this would suggest that FX-J is using something combined with the statistical approach
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Hi it is very interesting because this would suggest that FX-J is using something combined with the statistical approach
I’m sure he did.
A good trader is a realist who wants to grab a chunk from the body of a trend, leaving top- and bottom-fishing to people on an ego trip. (Dr. Alexander Elder)
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Hi Simplex, I mostly use mql, but sometimes I need excel. I’m just amateur coder and for more complex analysis it’s easier for me to export values to csv and work in excel.
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I mostly use mql, but sometimes I need excel.
Yes, I think it would make sense to stop adding more complex analysis and visualization to my recurrence statistics in mq4. A csv export and a flexible xls to analyse the output might be more flexible and easier to handle.
A good trader is a realist who wants to grab a chunk from the body of a trend, leaving top- and bottom-fishing to people on an ego trip. (Dr. Alexander Elder)
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Could you please tell us the group Name ?
This is the group:
http://penguintraders.com/groups/tz-and-ss/
I started a thread explaining the equation a bit more with clarification on K
http://penguintraders.com/groups/tz-and-ss/forum/topic/proof-of-eurusdds-equation-and-97/Haven’t posted the EA yet. I need to find some time to clean up the code and post it
Focus, Patience, Determination & Order in chaos
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Hi,
I’m not sure if this thread is still active seeing as a private group has been started but I’m hoping so.
I don’t usually spend a lot of time in forums but was told about the FF shenanigans by a friend so I decided to have a bit of a read. Well after spending days of reading about TZ on FF which I think is pretty cool mostly because I like the fact it is thinking outside the box and has great potential. I was directed to this site which btw I think is fantastic with clearly some clever peeps.
I have some idea’s which I haven’t seen posted anywhere but before I share them I just want to get a bit better handle on a few things.
My first question would be what is the most reliable TZ indicator to use. I have looked at the xixi version , Transient_Zones (no source code version), and one from Kiads (looking at the code looks to be based on the xixi implementation). The issue I see is that the first two seem to draw differently and all versions seem to delay on drawing, so just wondering if there is anything else available before I go and code up my own version.
Another question would be if we know that price is RZ say 97% of the time and TZ 3% for some H, I am thinking is it worth knowing the number of actual PTZ that have attempted to form but have been taken out? Maybe getting a count of failing PTZ between confirmed TZ’s and using that somehow to predict how reliable the next PTZ is of confirming. Make sense? Maths isn’t my strongest by coding is what I do so any ideas would be welcome in calculating this.
I appears to me that a lot of the PTZ levels could be known in advance, anyone see any advantage in seeing the point where the next likely PTZ level will appear on the chart?
Thanks.
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So it appears the consensus seems to favour using TZ on larger time frames, which is obviously fine. I have been thinking on the smaller time frames 15min and below is it worth getting the probabilities based on bars within a session? Maybe it could provide better levels for entries and exit strategies. Any thoughts on the subject?
Also has anyone tried TZ with Range Bars, I don’t currently have them in metatrader?
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So it appears the consensus seems to favour using TZ on larger time frames, which is obviously fine. I have been thinking on the smaller time frames 15min and below is it worth getting the probabilities based on bars within a session? Maybe it could provide better levels for entries and exit strategies. Any thoughts on the subject? Also has anyone tried TZ with Range Bars, I don’t currently have them in metatrader?
Hi pfx,
FYI, MTH2014(kiads) is using TZ with renko chart. U can check out his thread at http://penguintraders.com/forums/topic/mth-tz-and-her-friends-for-manual-trading-all-tf/
I only know I know nothing
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Maybe getting a count of failing PTZ between confirmed TZ’s and using that somehow to predict how reliable the next PTZ is of confirming. Make sense?
Yes, this is a great idea pfx!
The most challenging part of trading with TZs is the drawdowns and the use of SL and still stay profitable. This is what I’m currently working on. I made some trend related indicators and one of them is this http://penguintraders.com/forums/topic/currency-strengthpowervalue-indicator/
Taking a high probability trade in the direction of the trend after reading a bit of candle based PA seems to be the answer but programming something to sort to semi automate is still a challenge.In the private group there isn’t much going on in terms of new discoveries for TZs. Mostly just discussions. I talked a bit about K that I haven’t shared here. I’m thinking that I should share it publicly since nobody seems to have gotten it there.
This thread isn’t dead. I visit it often and I will answer questions if anybody has any
Focus, Patience, Determination & Order in chaos
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Here is the thread that I posted in the private group. I haven’t given out the exact answer but everything is on here if anybody wants to figure out the K
————————————————————————————————-
To start off the new year, I want to share with you all the exact proof of the EURUSDD’s equation.Please take a look at the following explanation first so you understand:
http://penguintraders.com/forums/topic/transient-recurrent-zones/page/4/#post-2016
And then take a look at the following
What this is showing are zones that became recurrent. The number of TZs are very low. Out of the 20k bars that I looked at, there were 870 RZs and only 20 TZs, which comes up to be 97.75%!
So EURUSDD wasn’t playing around with this equation. It was a legitimate claim. I was pretty shocked when I came across this myself recently when I revisited the equation in order to explain it to everybody, thats when I got the key piece and the importance of K. Honestly I had doubts about EURUSDD and even started to believe that he was a scammer, but wow, now it makes me think it all over again. Maybe the guy really did get hacked! Anyways.. thats another story for another thread
By playing with H and K I can even find > 99.9% trade setups!
Happy New Year Everybody!!Focus, Patience, Determination & Order in chaos
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To give you guys a hint, K ends up being sort like the minimum amount of retracement expected
Focus, Patience, Determination & Order in chaos
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Another question would be if we know that price is RZ say 97% of the time and TZ 3% for some H, I am thinking is it worth knowing the number of actual PTZ that have attempted to form but have been taken out? Maybe getting a count of failing PTZ between confirmed TZ’s and using that somehow to predict how reliable the next PTZ is of confirming. Make sense? Maths isn’t my strongest by coding is what I do so any ideas would be welcome in calculating this. I appears to me that a lot of the PTZ levels could be known in advance, anyone see any advantage in seeing the point where the next likely PTZ level will appear on the chart? Thanks.
Hi pfx
Yes good observations and well worthy of further investigation. Clearly there will be optimum H setting by time frame and I would suspect that the smaller the TF the higher the failure rate of PTZ’s based on market prices being more random walk on smaller TF’s. So producing stats for each TF assuming optimal H on each TF may give some insight into which TF’s should be traded using TZ methodology.
Also there is merit in the idea of knowing in advance where next PTZ’s are likely to start forming. The best reason I can think of would be to do with trade expectation. So if a trade is entered and you expect price to go from level D to level E and it does not develop in the correct way, then perhaps that trade should be killed or managed in a different way.
Hopefully some other members have views on all this.
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Maybe getting a count of failing PTZ between confirmed TZ’s and using that somehow to predict how reliable the next PTZ is of confirming. Make sense?
Yes, this is a great idea pfx! The most challenging part of trading with TZs is the drawdowns and the use of SL and still stay profitable. This is what I’m currently working on. I made some trend related indicators and one of them is this http://penguintraders.com/forums/topic/currency-strengthpowervalue-indicator/ Taking a high probability trade in the direction of the trend after reading a bit of candle based PA seems to be the answer but programming something to sort to semi automate is still a challenge. In the private group there isn’t much going on in terms of new discoveries for TZs. Mostly just discussions. I talked a bit about K that I haven’t shared here. I’m thinking that I should share it publicly since nobody seems to have gotten it there. This thread isn’t dead. I visit it often and I will answer questions if anybody has any
Thanks for the link to currency strength, I’ll take a look.
Yeah SL can often be the killer trading, personally my best trading has been done without stop losses and using an opposing entry to hedge the position until things line up again. I haven’t looked at how this could be done with TZ yet but one idea may be to look to trade something like the 4 hour or 1 hour choosing a high probability TZ entry with confirmation on a smaller time frame meaning that the smaller time frame confirms the larger and you now have a bias.
If things don’t pan out as expected it will be clearly visible on the smaller time frame, so you could use the set ups on the smaller time frame hedging entries, the idea being that this will limit your DD, also free’s up margin, you take the hedge off when it lines up again, by doing this you book in small profits along the way bringing down the overall BE. It ain’t for the faint hearted I admit and mistakes can be costly, but when done correctly it can get you out of most bad trades meaning you don’t realise the loss which ultimately whips the account. Obviously this can only be done if your broker allows opposing entries on the same symbol. Just some thoughts
Also thanks for the post on K still doing my head in in totally understanding that bit.
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So it appears the consensus seems to favour using TZ on larger time frames, which is obviously fine. I have been thinking on the smaller time frames 15min and below is it worth getting the probabilities based on bars within a session? Maybe it could provide better levels for entries and exit strategies. Any thoughts on the subject? Also has anyone tried TZ with Range Bars, I don’t currently have them in metatrader?
Hi pfx, FYI, MTH2014(kiads) is using TZ with renko chart. U can check out his thread at http://penguintraders.com/forums/topic/mth-tz-and-her-friends-for-manual-trading-all-tf/
Thanks mate, another thing to look at, not really looked at renko too deeply before.
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my best trading has been done without stop losses and using an opposing entry to hedge the position until things line up again
yea, thats really nice. Us US folks have difficulty hedging.. since they don’t let us go long and short on the same pair. So it’s never a perfect hedge and a headache to manage
Unless I go with some foreign unregulated broker..Focus, Patience, Determination & Order in chaos
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Use a UK broker. There are plenty that are legit brokers there. As long as Uncle Sam gets his tax dollars I doubt anyone will care (or know?) you are using an overseas broker.
I use Alpari Uk. They have been brilliant, I have no complaints.
However I am yet to see a strategy that requires hedging, mathematically speaking. The only advantage is psychological (which is a very real thing!).
I am still pondering your statement about K. The minimum amount of retracement… hmmm. I thought I got it before but I will need to reevaluate that.
What's it all about? It's all about money.
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Use a UK broker.
Can’t.. almost all foreign brokers don’t accept US clients. Only a very few unregulated ones are. If they are regulated, then they cannot accept US clients due to US regulations.
Focus, Patience, Determination & Order in chaos
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Use a UK broker.
Can’t.. almost all foreign brokers don’t accept US clients. Only a very few unregulated ones are. If they are regulated, then they cannot accept US clients due to US regulations.
gotta love that good ole land of the free
I hate the regulations they placed on us with the dodd-frank act.
-Life’s Good & Why Wouldn’t It Be? I’m a Pirate After All!This reply has been reported for inappropriate content.
Here is the thread that I posted in the private group. I haven’t given out the exact answer but everything is on here if anybody wants to figure out the K
————————————————————————————————- To start off the new year, I want to share with you all the exact proof of the EURUSDD’s equation. Please take a look at the following explanation first so you understand: http://penguintraders.com/forums/topic/transient-recurrent-zones/page/4/#post-2016 And then take a look at the following What this is showing are zones that became recurrent. The number of TZs are very low. Out of the 20k bars that I looked at, there were 870 RZs and only 20 TZs, which comes up to be 97.75%! So EURUSDD wasn’t playing around with this equation. It was a legitimate claim. I was pretty shocked when I came across this myself recently when I revisited the equation in order to explain it to everybody, thats when I got the key piece and the importance of K. Honestly I had doubts about EURUSDD and even started to believe that he was a scammer, but wow, now it makes me think it all over again. Maybe the guy really did get hacked! Anyways.. thats another story for another thread By playing with H and K I can even find > 99.9% trade setups! Happy New Year Everybody!!I think I may want to take a crack at this riddle.. =p
Are there any failed TZs on this chart?
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Are there any failed TZs on this chart?
On that chart, no, there are none
All the RZs are in grayFocus, Patience, Determination & Order in chaos
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Are there any failed TZs on this chart?
On that chart, no, there are none
All the RZs are in gray Hi SaverO
Which indicator is the one you are using on that chart ?
cheers
h
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Which indicator is the one you are using on that chart ?
I haven’t shared it yet. I still need to test it out really well. I’m trying to find a good way to determine the market direction because I understood something about TZs or any random price level. I want to share those findings/thoughts sometime soon when I have the time.
Focus, Patience, Determination & Order in chaos
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Hi Saver0. What do you mean with failed TZ?
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Hi, I have been reading all I can about TZ and RZ and basically all the EURUSDD and FX Jay ramblings. It took me 2 – 3 days but I believe I am caught up.
Now I was studying some of the methods , back testing and the like, and I stumbled upon something, that I believe (if I am not seeing things or haven’t made a mistake) , that allows me to predict the price of certain currency pairs.
Is this what FX-Jay discovered, but will not tell?
Is it something new?
Am I seeing things?
Has anyone else noticed this and is keeping it secret, I am scared to post it here. I am not the type of person to make up bullshit, I genuinely believe I have found something remarkable, but of course it would be nice to have more eyes look over it to make sure. I do not know who I could trust with such a thing. Yes it involves some of the concepts that EURUSDD revealed.
Anyway, don’t hate me for not telling you, if it is true I will release it to the public in time.
Hi, I have been reading all I can about TZ and RZ and basically all the EURUSDD and FX Jay ramblings. It took me 2 – 3 days but I believe I am caught up. Now I was studying some of the methods , back testing and the like, and I stumbled upon something, that I believe (if I am not seeing things or haven’t made a mistake) , that allows me to predict the price of certain currency pairs. Is this what FX-Jay discovered, but will not tell? Is it something new? Am I seeing things? Has anyone else noticed this and is keeping it secret, I am scared to post it here. I am not the type of person to make up bullshit, I genuinely believe I have found something remarkable, but of course it would be nice to have more eyes look over it to make sure. I do not know who I could trust with such a thing. Yes it involves some of the concepts that EURUSDD revealed. Anyway, don’t hate me for not telling you, if it is true I will release it to the public in time.
Hi Brother, If you want to discuss about your finding but worry to discuss that in public, then I could recommend you to discuss with Saver0 in private, As our Admin and owner of this Penguin Traders Site, He also previously speak/discuss personally with EURUSDD and FX Jay. So, maybe He could give you objective suggestions about your finding..
Best Regards
MTH
Intuition, Experiences and Common sense..
http://www.binaryoptionsedge.com/
Unless I go with some foreign unregulated broker..
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