- This topic has 25 replies, 10 voices, and was last updated 11 years, 3 months ago by
.
- Posts
It is a known fact that when you walk into a casino the odds are always in the houses favor. This is how they stay in business, with out fixing the odds in this manner they would go bust as every one won money. This model of risk does not only keep them in business, it makes them extreme amounts of money. So how much are the odds stacked in their favor? Some would think it is much higher than it really is, but the fact of the matter is its around 53-54%. Thats it all. All they need to keep taking every ones money over and over is a 3-4% advantage and proper pay out ratios(risk reward ratios).
One of the beautiful things about investing is we get to decide which odds we are going to bet on and since i have been introduced to the TZ theory it is very simple for us to do.
When I first began trading TZ and how TZ was introduced was it was intended to be a way to figure out how to find 97% or 90%+ probability trades and I was working with a lot of great traders trying to figure out how to achieve this. Some(FX-Jay) were able to achieve these results and I still haven’t quite figured out how he has done so. After trying for sometime the only way I could achieve numbers like this was to compound probabilities, which we all know does not work. So how does relate to casinos?
So after hitting a wall I began to think about vegas, casinos and how it is truly only a slight advantage and proper risk management that allows the “house to always win.” I realized that with proper R:R ratios and risk management we do not need trade probabilities in the 90%+ to profitable, or to always win in the long run as the house does. we don’t even need a 70% win rate to always win as the house does. As long as we never trade a R:R ratio less than 1:1 and maintain a win rate of 55%, we will always win as the house does in the long run. The key is understanding risk management and how much risk you can expect to take on at any given time(drawdown). A casino will never let people place too big of bets as this would cause them to blow up, similar to how over leverage will cause trading accounts to blow up as they can not handle the losing streak they can except to take at any given time. Anyways taking away my compounding probabilities, my set up(% chance of TP being hit instead of SL by x amount of time) probabilities will range any where from 30%-70% and they will change as time continues so what works today does not always work tomorrow, and when this happens we just flip the script and bet against our setup. As long as we maintain a R:R 1:1 and always take trades with a 55% or greater probability we will always win in the long run as the house does.
With my current method many of my setups R:R ratios are 3:1 and sometimes even 4:1. As I continue to only focus on the higher R:R setups it will only make it much easier for me to win in the long run as the house always does. The key to it all is knowing the true probability of your setup, using the right R:R ratios, and proper amount of risk per trade. For my account this year I am going to be only trading 0.75% per lot as I could see as much as 7+ losing trades in a row(which would not be surprising) and my account needs to be able to survive these times. I am also trying to be much more risk conservative. That being said with my R:R ratios I can still make 2-3% a trade which will still provide my with fast pace of growth. I will post update of this pic but I am keeping it private on myfxbook so there wont be a direct link as this thread is mostly about the high risk account.
On top of this account I am going to open a tiny high risk account to really be in the spirit of playing like a casino. I will think this account to this post once it is up as I did with buried treasure thread along with adding it to my sig. This account with risk 5% per trade and will use R:R of 2-3+. This account should see some quick growth. That being said it will be a very bumpy ride. With this account I will be expecting to deal with some significant drawdown as I will be risk more much per trade. That being said as long as I maintain my winrate and use higher R:R ratio the account should grow quite nicely.
Goal For High Risk Account – Grow 500% 5 times(No time limit or dead line on this, just going to see if I can even get $200 to $1000 and then we can see from there).
$200 x 5 = $1000
$1000 x 5 = $5000
$5000 x 5 = $25,000
$25,000 x 5 = $125,000
$125,000 x 5 = $625,000
So this is my approach going into 2015 and how I will be trading the markets and I just created this thread to journal my progress.
I wanted to keep it separate from my buried treasure thread as I am taking a slightly different approach.
-
This topic was modified 11 years, 3 months ago by .
-
This topic was modified 11 years, 3 months ago by .
-
This topic was modified 11 years, 3 months ago by .
-
This topic was modified 11 years, 3 months ago by .
-
This topic was modified 11 years, 3 months ago by .
-
This topic was modified 11 years, 3 months ago by .
-
This topic was modified 11 years, 3 months ago by .
-Life’s Good & Why Wouldn’t It Be? I’m a Pirate After All!Hi PiratePip,
I have a question to ask. I find it quite difficult to trade TZ. It looks definitely nice on history charts but trying to trade it is still quite a gray zone for me. How do u trade TZ?
1) Counter Trend or Trend Trades or both?
2) Entry when its PTZ or CTZ?
3) If CTZ most of the time depending on the h value, price will have move quite far away from the CTZ if there’s no pullback. Hence R:R is not optimum especially on H4 & above.
4) If PTZ the risk is much higher if counter trend. Since u don’t really know if its going to be a mid TZ instead.
If u could answer this question, I’ll be most grateful, thanks. If U don’t want to share on public, do u mind if u pm me, thanks a lot.
I only know I know nothing
Skype: learnalways@outlook.comHi PiratePip, I have a question to ask. I find it quite difficult to trade TZ. It looks definitely nice on history charts but trying to trade it is still quite a gray zone for me. How do u trade TZ? 1) Counter Trend or Trend Trades or both? 2) Entry when its PTZ or CTZ? 3) If CTZ most of the time depending on the h value, price will have move quite far away from the CTZ if there’s no pullback. Hence R:R is not optimum especially on H4 & above. 4) If PTZ the risk is much higher if counter trend. Since u don’t really know if its going to be a mid TZ instead. If u could answer this question, I’ll be most grateful, thanks. If U don’t want to share on public, do u mind if u pm me, thanks a lot.
As I said in many previous post on here we cant trade just one Level, we need two so we can determine which one has better probability in same time frame. One thing that is very interesting about my method is the probabilities are constantly shifting set up to setup(as they naturally would) so sometimes I should trade with the setup and other days against.
1) Doesn’t matter. I am going to try and trade the most fundamentally sound set ups just to hope that this cherry picking will help me take even the best set ups, but the method is 100% technical that is based on a pattern that happens over and over in the market, sometimes with the trend, sometimes against.
2) I enter when I can with the best R:R ratio. so sometimes I will be stalking entry for a bounce into a level to get a good R:R ratio, other times the R:R isnt there so I move on to the next trade.
3) not 100% what you mean in this question but I believe it relates to trading 1 zone, which we can not not as you will only have half the probabilities.
4) I do not use Mid TZ, in this current set up, mid TZ, are not calculated and I do not know the true probabilities when they are present.
-Life’s Good & Why Wouldn’t It Be? I’m a Pirate After All!As I said in many previous post on here we cant trade just one Level, we need two so we can determine which one has better probability in same time frame. One thing that is very interesting about my method is the probabilities are constantly shifting set up to setup(as they naturally would) so sometimes I should trade with the setup and other days against. 1) Doesn’t matter. I am going to try and trade the most fundamentally sound set ups just to hope that this cherry picking will help me take even the best set ups, but the method is 100% technical that is based on a pattern that happens over and over in the market, sometimes with the trend, sometimes against. 2) I enter when I can with the best R:R ratio. so sometimes I will be stalking entry for a bounce into a level to get a good R:R ratio, other times the R:R isnt there so I move on to the next trade. 3) not 100% what you mean in this question but I believe it relates to trading 1 zone, which we can not not as you will only have half the probabilities. 4) I do not use Mid TZ, in this current set up, mid TZ, are not calculated and I do not know the true probabilities when they are present.
Thanks for the explanation, regarding about the two zones both Fractal TZ?
Do u mean 1st is Confirmed TZ 2nd is PTZ? or both CTZ?
Do u mind posting any pic to illustrate your point if its possible, thx.
I only know I know nothing
Skype: learnalways@outlook.comSorry I can you clarify if my understanding on the terms is correct?
PTZ (permanent transient zone)
CTZ (confirmed transient zone)
CTZ = PTZ ?
CTZ = Confirmed Transient Zone
PTZ = Potential Transient Zone (still forming)
Fractal Transient Zone = Highest or Lowest Point of h value (something like Reversal)
Mid Transient Zone = Trend Continuation (something like Breakout)
RZ = Recurrent Zone
Hope it helps, Pls correct me if I’m wrong, thx.
I only know I know nothing
Skype: learnalways@outlook.comHey Pirate!!
Glad to see you around. One question, what’s the relation between the RR ratio and the % BE winRate? I mean, how can you calculate the % BE winRate if you know the RR ratio or viceversa?
Regards!
EDIT: I see it now… just posted the question, looked the chart again and saw it haha
Hey Pirate!! Glad to see you around. One question, what’s the relation between the RR ratio and the % BE winRate? I mean, how can you calculate the % BE winRate if you know the RR ratio or viceversa? Regards! EDIT: I see it now… just posted the question, looked the chart again and saw it haha
Glad to see you stop by Basch!
PM me any questions you may have with how am I trading or if you just want to know what I am doing(if don’t already 
)
-Life’s Good & Why Wouldn’t It Be? I’m a Pirate After All!Still waiting for broker to open new high risk account so I can link it to thread. In the mean time a little update on my conservative account I am keeping private.
So far its been going well. I have maintained my win rate being equal to or greater than 55% and have had very minimal drawdown.
AUDUSD has been treating me nicely. Rode it down short and have been able to take it back up long. Looks like TP will be achieved in next few hours.
EURGBP is another set up I am really liking right now. I expecting a nice move up and have gone long. This one has a nice R:R ratio on it too. its right around 1:5.
Hope every ones week is going well!
-Life’s Good & Why Wouldn’t It Be? I’m a Pirate After All!Very nice looking results my friend! Keep up the good trading!
Focus, Patience, Determination & Order in chaos
It is a known fact that when you walk into a casino the odds are always in the houses favor. This is how they stay in business, with out fixing the odds in this manner they would go bust as every one won money. This model of risk does not only keep them in business, it makes them extreme amounts of money. So how much are the odds stacked in their favor? Some would think it is much higher than it really is, but the fact of the matter is its around 53-54%. Thats it all. All they need to keep taking every ones money over and over is a 3-4% advantage and proper pay out ratios(risk reward ratios).
One of the beautiful things about investing is we get to decide which odds we are going to bet on and since i have been introduced to the TZ theory it is very simple for us to do. When I first began trading TZ and how TZ was introduced was it was intended to be a way to figure out how to find 97% or 90%+ probability trades and I was working with a lot of great traders trying to figure out how to achieve this. Some(FX-Jay) were able to achieve these results and I still haven’t quite figured out how he has done so. After trying for sometime the only way I could achieve numbers like this was to compound probabilities, which we all know does not work. So how does relate to casinos? So after hitting a wall I began to think about vegas, casinos and how it is truly only a slight advantage and proper risk management that allows the “house to always win.” I realized that with proper R:R ratios and risk management we do not need trade probabilities in the 90%+ to profitable, or to always win in the long run as the house does. we don’t even need a 70% win rate to always win as the house does. As long as we never trade a R:R ratio less than 1:1 and maintain a win rate of 55%, we will always win as the house does in the long run. The key is understanding risk management and how much risk you can expect to take on at any given time(drawdown). A casino will never let people place too big of bets as this would cause them to blow up, similar to how over leverage will cause trading accounts to blow up as they can not handle the losing streak they can except to take at any given time. Anyways taking away my compounding probabilities, my set up(% chance of TP being hit instead of SL by x amount of time) probabilities will range any where from 30%-70% and they will change as time continues so what works today does not always work tomorrow, and when this happens we just flip the script and bet against our setup. As long as we maintain a R:R 1:1 and always take trades with a 55% or greater probability we will always win in the long run as the house does. With my current method many of my setups R:R ratios are 3:1 and sometimes even 4:1. As I continue to only focus on the higher R:R setups it will only make it much easier for me to win in the long run as the house always does. The key to it all is knowing the true probability of your setup, using the right R:R ratios, and proper amount of risk per trade. For my account this year I am going to be only trading 0.75% per lot as I could see as much as 7+ losing trades in a row(which would not be surprising) and my account needs to be able to survive these times. I am also trying to be much more risk conservative. That being said with my R:R ratios I can still make 2-3% a trade which will still provide my with fast pace of growth. I will post update of this pic but I am keeping it private on myfxbook so there wont be a direct link as this thread is mostly about the high risk account. On top of this account I am going to open a tiny high risk account to really be in the spirit of playing like a casino. I will think this account to this post once it is up as I did with buried treasure thread along with adding it to my sig. This account with risk 5% per trade and will use R:R of 2-3+. This account should see some quick growth. That being said it will be a very bumpy ride. With this account I will be expecting to deal with some significant drawdown as I will be risk more much per trade. That being said as long as I maintain my winrate and use higher R:R ratio the account should grow quite nicely. Goal For High Risk Account – Grow 500% 5 times(Now time limit or dead line on this, just going to see if I can even get $200 to $1000 and then we can see from there). $200 x 5 = $1000 $1000 x 5 = $5000 $5000 x 5 = $25,000 $25,000 x 5 = $125,000 $125,ooo x 5 = $625,000 So this is my approach going into 2015 and how I will be trading the markets and I just created this thread to journal my progress. I wanted to keep it separate from my buried treasure thread as I am taking a slightly different approach.Your opening statement is quite true, EXCEPT one game – Black Jack (21).
In this game the odd are in your (gambler) favor – if you know how to count cards (51%/49%) and increasing. There are some movies about that.
That’s why casino’s introduced multi-packets shuffling – to make it harder, but it doesn’t change the statistical odds.
In Casino’s it’s illegal to count cards mechanically.
In Forex – it’s perfectly legal, highly recomended, and profitable…
G.
Your opening statement is quite true, EXCEPT one game – Black Jack (21). In this game the odd are in your (gambler) favor – if you know how to count cards (51%/49%) and increasing. There are some movies about that. That’s why casino’s introduced multi-packets shuffling – to make it harder, but it doesn’t change the statistical odds. In Casino’s it’s illegal to count cards mechanically. In Forex – it’s perfectly legal, highly recomended, and profitable… G.
Hi GG53,
Do u mind sharing with us how to count ? in Forex. Is it counting candlesticks or ? Pls enlighten me, thx.
Best Regards.
I only know I know nothing
Skype: learnalways@outlook.comIt is a known fact that when you walk into a casino the odds are always in the houses favor. This is how they stay in business, with out fixing the odds in this manner they would go bust as every one won money. This model of risk does not only keep them in business, it makes them extreme amounts of money. So how much are the odds stacked in their favor? Some would think it is much higher than it really is, but the fact of the matter is its around 53-54%. Thats it all. All they need to keep taking every ones money over and over is a 3-4% advantage and proper pay out ratios(risk reward ratios).
One of the beautiful things about investing is we get to decide which odds we are going to bet on and since i have been introduced to the TZ theory it is very simple for us to do. When I first began trading TZ and how TZ was introduced was it was intended to be a way to figure out how to find 97% or 90%+ probability trades and I was working with a lot of great traders trying to figure out how to achieve this. Some(FX-Jay) were able to achieve these results and I still haven’t quite figured out how he has done so. After trying for sometime the only way I could achieve numbers like this was to compound probabilities, which we all know does not work. So how does relate to casinos? So after hitting a wall I began to think about vegas, casinos and how it is truly only a slight advantage and proper risk management that allows the “house to always win.” I realized that with proper R:R ratios and risk management we do not need trade probabilities in the 90%+ to profitable, or to always win in the long run as the house does. we don’t even need a 70% win rate to always win as the house does. As long as we never trade a R:R ratio less than 1:1 and maintain a win rate of 55%, we will always win as the house does in the long run. The key is understanding risk management and how much risk you can expect to take on at any given time(drawdown). A casino will never let people place too big of bets as this would cause them to blow up, similar to how over leverage will cause trading accounts to blow up as they can not handle the losing streak they can except to take at any given time. Anyways taking away my compounding probabilities, my set up(% chance of TP being hit instead of SL by x amount of time) probabilities will range any where from 30%-70% and they will change as time continues so what works today does not always work tomorrow, and when this happens we just flip the script and bet against our setup. As long as we maintain a R:R 1:1 and always take trades with a 55% or greater probability we will always win in the long run as the house does. With my current method many of my setups R:R ratios are 3:1 and sometimes even 4:1. As I continue to only focus on the higher R:R setups it will only make it much easier for me to win in the long run as the house always does. The key to it all is knowing the true probability of your setup, using the right R:R ratios, and proper amount of risk per trade. For my account this year I am going to be only trading 0.75% per lot as I could see as much as 7+ losing trades in a row(which would not be surprising) and my account needs to be able to survive these times. I am also trying to be much more risk conservative. That being said with my R:R ratios I can still make 2-3% a trade which will still provide my with fast pace of growth. I will post update of this pic but I am keeping it private on myfxbook so there wont be a direct link as this thread is mostly about the high risk account. On top of this account I am going to open a tiny high risk account to really be in the spirit of playing like a casino. I will think this account to this post once it is up as I did with buried treasure thread along with adding it to my sig. This account with risk 5% per trade and will use R:R of 2-3+. This account should see some quick growth. That being said it will be a very bumpy ride. With this account I will be expecting to deal with some significant drawdown as I will be risk more much per trade. That being said as long as I maintain my winrate and use higher R:R ratio the account should grow quite nicely. Goal For High Risk Account – Grow 500% 5 times(Now time limit or dead line on this, just going to see if I can even get $200 to $1000 and then we can see from there). $200 x 5 = $1000 $1000 x 5 = $5000 $5000 x 5 = $25,000 $25,000 x 5 = $125,000 $125,ooo x 5 = $625,000 So this is my approach going into 2015 and how I will be trading the markets and I just created this thread to journal my progress. I wanted to keep it separate from my buried treasure thread as I am taking a slightly different approach.Your opening statement is quite true, EXCEPT one game – Black Jack (21). In this game the odd are in your (gambler) favor – if you know how to count cards (51%/49%) and increasing. There are some movies about that. That’s why casino’s introduced multi-packets shuffling – to make it harder, but it doesn’t change the statistical odds. In Casino’s it’s illegal to count cards mechanically. In Forex – it’s perfectly legal, highly recomended, and profitable… G.
\
True those odds presented in the first post are the averages of all the classic casino games you would play. Of coarse they are always changing game to game and bet to bet(red 2 or black 4 with craps etc).
Counting Cards is just counting probabilities. So is counting TZs(PLURAL! as i said a while ago you can not trade just one TZ. thatd be like playing black jack counting only the cards in your hand. You need multiple TZ to understand the probabilities( you need to see the other cards on the table so you can count them into your probability calculation).
Also I believe counting cards and black jack is over as like you said they add multiple decks into the stack so they odds are almost impossible to figure. I have seen some places in new Orleans use 8 decks shuffled together(I imagine some casinos do not use full decks either in their multiple deck stack just to fudge the odds up some more).
-Life’s Good & Why Wouldn’t It Be? I’m a Pirate After All!Broker has finally opened up my new small high risk account that I am going to attach to this thread so I will be funding that today and adding it on here. Since this is going to be very high risk trading I am starting with a tiny account as I could blow up if I do not execute properly.
Very excited to see how this goes :)
-Life’s Good & Why Wouldn’t It Be? I’m a Pirate After All!I am excited too, Pip!
I will try to open an tiny account this week to compete with you.
Let’s see who blow out first or make $1M first
I am excited too, Pip! I will try to open an tiny account this week to compete with you. Let’s see who blow out first or make $1M first
Its on brother!
Hopefully we both make a $1M :)
But first I will focus on making $800 to complete the first stage of my plan
-Life’s Good & Why Wouldn’t It Be? I’m a Pirate After All!Please check your statistics…
Adding another pack of card doesn’t change the odds at all!
If your odds for a pack of cards is 51% then the odds for 100 packs it’s still 51% ! it’s just more difficult to keep track.
As to Forex, don’t calculate the odd that are in your hand, but the odds that are still in the “pack”.
G.
Please check your statistics…
Adding another pack of card doesn’t change the odds at all!
If your odds for a pack of cards is 51% then the odds for 100 packs it’s still 51% ! it’s just more difficult to keep track.
As to Forex, don’t calculate the odd that are in your hand, but the odds that are still in the “pack”.
G.
The odds do shift slighty by the maintain an average 4-5% advantage depending on the black jack rules as mentioned in first post. but yes just the decks themselves combing the odds will stay the same, it will just be a bigger data sample.
-
This reply was modified 11 years, 3 months ago by .
-
This reply was modified 11 years, 3 months ago by .
-Life’s Good & Why Wouldn’t It Be? I’m a Pirate After All!have updated 1st post and sig to show results for new high risk $200 account and I have payed my first ante to the market :)
-Life’s Good & Why Wouldn’t It Be? I’m a Pirate After All!-
This topic was modified 11 years, 3 months ago by
PM me any questions you may have with how am I trading or if you just want to know what I am doing(if don’t already 
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.