simplex replied to the topic Stairstep Breakouts indicator and EA in the forum Trading Systems Discussion 9 years, 11 months ago
I have no idea why MT4 standard MA would not work set to period = 1. On my platform, it just shows the raw price according to your choice, without any smoothing. That’s how it should be.
If not: have you tried reinstalling MT4? (Sorry if this has been suggested before, I don’t follow the whole thread).
If there’s an issue with the installation…[Read more]
simplex replied to the topic Stairstep Breakouts indicator and EA in the forum Trading Systems Discussion 9 years, 12 months ago
Surprise surprise the ‘bitch’ comes out in you again.
You are a poser, a pretender, a troll and a time waster.
I kindly ask both of you to get back to a more appropriate diction. Personal accuses like these remind me of some of the worst threads I know from FF. It would suit this community far better if you could control you…[Read more]
simplex replied to the topic Expectancy Management in the forum Trading Systems Discussion 9 years, 12 months ago
@pipatronic: nice vid, thanks for it!
Contentwise, though, there’s nothing really new as compared to our recent written discussion. My opinion stated here is still valid.
If hedging helps you in your trading approach, just go ahead. But when developing an EA I do not see a reason to go that way, because a quick exit and re-entry is easier to…[Read more]
simplex replied to the topic Expectancy Management in the forum Trading Systems Discussion 9 years, 12 months ago
Hmm – I understood “diversification” like entries in different pairs …
Yes, I used the term diversification a bit loosely, and I said ‘kind of diversification’ to emphasize this.
Please take it like this: since you don’t know where exactly the ‘ideal’ entry point with the smallest drawdown would be, you ‘diversify’ your entries by griddin…[Read more]
simplex replied to the topic Expectancy Management in the forum Trading Systems Discussion 9 years, 12 months ago
I do not know in detail how @MTH2014 sets up his grids. But in general this fits perfectly the arguments PipMeUp @ FF lays out in the last chapter of his paper, as stated above. It’s some kind of diversification of your entries trying to even out potential drawdowns caused by short term volatility.
When entering a trade, you do not know in…[Read more]
simplex replied to the topic Expectancy Management in the forum Trading Systems Discussion 9 years, 12 months ago
I do not know in detail how @MTH2014 sets up his grids. But in general this fits perfectly the arguments PipMeUp @ FF lays out in the last chapter of his paper, as stated above. It’s some kind of diversification of your entries trying to even out potential drawdowns caused by short term volatility.
When entering a trade, you do not know in…[Read more]
simplex replied to the topic Expectancy Management in the forum Trading Systems Discussion 9 years, 12 months ago
I wonder if it is a physiological thing (for me)
Hmm, do you mean ‘psychological’ ?
‘Physiological’ might mean that your trades are causing you a stomachache, or worse. I don’t hope so!

simplex replied to the topic Expectancy Management in the forum Trading Systems Discussion 9 years, 12 months ago
As announced earlier, I would like to come back to the topic Reward to Risk Ratio, RR.
To kick off a discussion, let me start with two links to external sources this time, which at least at a first glance seem contradictory in their respective conclusions.
First Hanover @ FF again, see here, and one quote from that post:
RR (in the conventional…
simplex replied to the topic Expectancy Management in the forum Trading Systems Discussion 9 years, 12 months ago
Okay see attached on hedging …
Good point! Now let’s put on our accountant’s glasses and change our action on your scenario slightly, without changing the scenario itself:
Replace ‘open short hedge’ by ‘close trade’
Replace ‘short closed’ by ‘re-enter trade’Taking the nit-picking accountant’s view: what would be the difference between…[Read more]
simplex replied to the topic Expectancy Management in the forum Trading Systems Discussion 9 years, 12 months ago
Okay see attached on hedging …
Good point! Now let’s put on our accountant’s glasses and change our action on your scenario slightly, without changing the scenario itself:
Replace ‘open short hedge’ by ‘close trade’
Replace ‘short closed’ by ‘re-enter trade’Taking the nit-picking accountant’s view: what would be the difference between…[Read more]
simplex replied to the topic Expectancy Management in the forum Trading Systems Discussion 9 years, 12 months ago
The question is, can’t we take advantage from it?
Sure we can, as long as we are correct about predecting that the market will stay in that range while our trade is open. My point is, that this is not ‘market-neutral’, like claimed by some authors. If price leaves the range and starts to trend, we loose.
Now think about using two equal sized o…
simplex replied to the topic Expectancy Management in the forum Trading Systems Discussion 9 years, 12 months ago
The question is, can’t we take advantage from it?
Sure we can, as long as we are correct about predecting that the market will stay in that range while our trade is open. My point is, that this is not ‘market-neutral’, like claimed by some authors. If price leaves the range and starts to trend, we loose.
Now think about using two equal sized o…
simplex replied to the topic Expectancy Management in the forum Trading Systems Discussion 9 years, 12 months ago
Once I’ve thought that hedging would be the solution for everything. … That would work fine for some time. But in the long run the market will reach an extreme state …
That’s the point: relying on hedged grids consisting either of limit or stop orders, is a pseudo-strategy heading straight for the annihilation of the account. If your entry s…[Read more]
simplex replied to the topic Expectancy Management in the forum Trading Systems Discussion 9 years, 12 months ago
To hedge or not to hedge?
Pro hedging: http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=6544091#post6544091
Contra hedging: http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=8868124#post8868124My personal conclusion: from a pure system developer’s perspective, I would always follow the contra arguments. When it comes to highly leveraged trades in…[Read more]
simplex replied to the topic Expectancy Management in the forum Trading Systems Discussion 9 years, 12 months ago
Before addressing R:R, like announced in my earlier post, let me come back to expectancy with another link. Hanover @ FF put together some conclusions on the ‘area of tension’ between expectancy and possible attempts to increase it by MM / TM methods here:
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=2240127#post2240127
The rest of that thread…[Read more]
simplex replied to the topic Expectancy Management in the forum Trading Systems Discussion 9 years, 12 months ago
Your position handling and trade management will only influence your results if you overcome the 0.5 threshold (you make more than wins than losses).
Absolutely correct! Trade management and money management will not turn a losing strategy in a winning one, on the long run. If the expectancy of your pure entry and exit strategy is below 0.5, you…[Read more]
simplex replied to the topic Expectancy Management in the forum Trading Systems Discussion 9 years, 12 months ago
Side note, sorry if it is slightly of course but hedging for me is the answer to SL, material for another video
Good point! The old discussion: why hedging if you could also exit your original trade and re-enter it later, when you would close your hedge?
Talking about EAs: when looking at hedged trades from a system developer’s perspective, which…[Read more]
simplex started the topic Expectancy Management in the forum Trading Systems Discussion 9 years, 12 months ago
Recently I stumbled upon a thread over at FF with the very same title. The leading post in that thread contains a pdf, which IMO is one of the rare pearls you may find surfing around in FX forums. Highly recommended reading!
The author (PipMeUp) examined well-known general trading techniques like trailing stops, moving SL to BE, partial closure…[Read more]
simplex started the topic MetaTrader & Windows 10 Upgrade in the forum General Discussions 10 years ago
Most MT4 users and coders are aware of the fact that the deadline for a free upgrade to Win10 will be reached soon. Running my MT on Win 7 platforms until now, I cautiously upgraded 3 PCs during the last 3 weeks.
Everything related with MT4 is working absolutely smooth after the upgrade.
Upgraded platforms:
Intel i5 laptop: Win 7 Home Premium…[Read more]
simplex replied to the topic Trading made REALLY Simple: Coder's Chat in the forum Development 10 years ago
I’d like to come back to Ron Black’s CLEAR Method indicator much discussed here as well as in the main thread. Recently I stumbled upon a video showing an interesting approach to utilize CLEAR in a more sophisticated way than proposed here before.
Note: that YouTube video is posted by a company, linking to their commercial website. Please don’t…[Read more]
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