› Forums › Trading Systems Discussion › Nature of Markets – Power of Probability, Compounding & 1pip
- This topic has 315 replies, 40 voices, and was last updated 10 years, 7 months ago by
gg53.
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- September 29, 2015 at 7:11 pm #8112
Nice work Cami!
October 1, 2015 at 8:54 am #8132Hi Guys,
I have a big question for you: suggestions on how to manage a loosing position ?
October 1, 2015 at 4:48 pm #8139Hmm, that’s quite the question isn’t it! Personally I’ve been thinking about this question a lot lately because I use a strategy that is not quite 1 pip, but it’s taking large positions and getting away with a few pips at a time.
To me, TA tells us which side the probabilities fall on. It is a pre-structure set up, and a post-structure result. The TA analysis that we use rarely employs or uses the middle. Aka, if you trade a breakout of a trend, you will make 1 pip 90% of time. But if you don’t, you’ll lose.. a lot. It requires the inputs, and gives outputs, but it doesn’t tell you what is going on in the middle. When it comes to finding stops for losing positions, I believe that it’s the middle that tell us when things go wrong.
In other words, I think you have to really employ and look at the candles and structure that occurs right when the trade is triggered, and then distinguish between the winning trades and losing trades. For me, I just look at a single candle (the breakout candle) on a 5m or 15m chart, and if it looks bad, I’ll just cut it. For example, if I take a long break and the candle pops up to trigger my entry but not enough to give me my TP, and then drops down and <i>closes</i> red, I’ll leave. Sure there will be cases where I get false positives, but in the long run, my system looks better and feels cleaner.
All depends on your trigger of course.
October 1, 2015 at 7:15 pm #8142For example, if I take a long break and the candle pops up to trigger my entry but not enough to give me my TP, and then drops down and <i>closes</i> red, I’ll leave. Sure there will be cases where I get false positives, but in the long run, my system looks better and feels cleaner. All depends on your trigger of course.
thank you CSendo, I like your idea and I will check it
October 3, 2015 at 11:47 pm #8197Thank you!
October 4, 2015 at 3:48 am #8198Hi Guys, I have a big question for you: suggestions on how to manage a loosing position ?
1. A position is not “loosing”. It’s money in the market. It will become “loosing” if you close it without profit…
2. Can’t bare the DD? – Hedge !!
3. Work yourself out of of the hedged position, in small steps, until BE.
4. Can’t work yourself out of hedged position? you don’t have a reasonable winning system, so quit trading and get back to the drawing board.
G.
October 4, 2015 at 11:54 am #8223Hi Guys, I have a big question for you: suggestions on how to manage a loosing position ?
1. A position is not “loosing”. It’s money in the market. It will become “loosing” if you close it without profit… 2. Can’t bare the DD? – Hedge !! 3. Work yourself out of of the hedged position, in small steps, until BE. 4. Can’t work yourself out of hedged position? you don’t have a reasonable winning system, so quit trading and get back to the drawing board. G.
Hi GG,
the third is my favourite, very slow to reach the BE and for this reason I asked for suggestions :)
playing on the money management size, I would like to avoid increasing size for every new trade
thank you
October 4, 2015 at 1:40 pm #8224Hi Guys, I have a big question for you: suggestions on how to manage a loosing position ?
1. A position is not “loosing”. It’s money in the market. It will become “loosing” if you close it without profit… 2. Can’t bare the DD? – Hedge !! 3. Work yourself out of of the hedged position, in small steps, until BE. 4. Can’t work yourself out of hedged position? you don’t have a reasonable winning system, so quit trading and get back to the drawing board. G.
Hi GG, the third is my favourite, very slow to reach the BE and for this reason I asked for suggestions :) playing on the money management size, I would like to avoid increasing size for every new trade thank you
Read my entry on lot size in the VIDEO thread. DON’T use proportional – it’s common newbies mistake.
G.
November 10, 2015 at 10:47 pm #8972Morning All,
Just found this thread and read all the pages….Interesting concept.Will test on a Demo account.
No further posts since October so is anyone still using this trading idea.
Cheers,
Ronald
November 11, 2015 at 9:13 am #8987Quick Update
London has just opened and I have already made 8 trades during the day …All winners…Time consuming but money is money.
T/Profit 5 pips using Renko Charts and cross reference to Candle Charts.
My favourite trading zone is the New York with the 3 hour London overlap.
Ronald
November 11, 2015 at 10:27 am #8989Morning All, Just found this thread and read all the pages….Interesting concept.Will test on a Demo account. No further posts since October so is anyone still using this trading idea. Cheers, Ronald
I continue to use it on real acct.
Same Win/Loss ratio, profits && DD as before, nothing changed.
G.
November 11, 2015 at 11:34 am #8990Hi Guys, I have a big question for you: suggestions on how to manage a loosing position ?
1. A position is not “loosing”. It’s money in the market. It will become “loosing” if you close it without profit… 2. Can’t bare the DD? – Hedge !! 3. Work yourself out of of the hedged position, in small steps, until BE. 4. Can’t work yourself out of hedged position? you don’t have a reasonable winning system, so quit trading and get back to the drawing board. G.
Hi GG,
Do u mind explaining step 3 and pls teach us – How do u work yourself out of the hedged position in small steps, until BE ???
EA or manual?
I once read before
- Open a total position lot size same as all of your open losing trades eg. Open 1 lot size as opposed to 1 lot losing position
- When the hedge position is winning $, take profit of the winning hedge position. (eg. TP by closing 0.10 lot size)
- Then close 0.10 position of losing position (so lot size of both winning & losing are now 0.9 lot)
- Repeat till all positions are closed at BE.
- But its almost insane to do this humanly and if one got too many open losing positions.
Pls advise, greatly appreciated.
Best Regards,
LearnAlways
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This reply was modified 10 years, 7 months ago by
LearnAlways. Reason: More Explanation
I only know I know nothing
Skype: learnalways@outlook.comNovember 11, 2015 at 11:39 am #8991Thanks for your reply “G’
I am using it on a live account…11 wins now with one trade still running…need to concentrate on my other trading so will look at this again to-morrow.
Have a good day.
Ronald
November 11, 2015 at 12:34 pm #8994Hi Guys, I have a big question for you: suggestions on how to manage a loosing position ?
1. A position is not “loosing”. It’s money in the market. It will become “loosing” if you close it without profit… 2. Can’t bare the DD? – Hedge !! 3. Work yourself out of of the hedged position, in small steps, until BE. 4. Can’t work yourself out of hedged position? you don’t have a reasonable winning system, so quit trading and get back to the drawing board. G.
Hi GG, Do u mind explaining step 3 and pls teach us – How do u work yourself out of the hedged position in small steps, until BE ??? EA or manual? I once read before
- Open a total position lot size same as all of your open losing trades eg. Open 1 lot size as opposed to 1 lot losing position
- When the hedge position is winning $, take profit of the winning hedge position. (eg. TP by closing 0.10 lot size)
- Then close 0.10 position of losing position (so lot size of both winning & losing are now 0.9 lot)
- Repeat till all positions are closed at BE.
- But its almost insane to do this humanly and if one got too many open losing positions.
Pls advise, greatly appreciated. Best Regards, LearnAlways
There are two ways of getting out of an hedged position that I use:
1. When you got a strong entry signal (according to your “winning” strategy) – close the opposite hedge for just a few pips. once accomplished, return the opposite hedge. There is no TP in this, just reducing the loosing position with each entry until BE.
2. This method involve 2 other (not necessarily related pairs) in an only long position on H4 and/or Daily, when there is an entry signal, and only on Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday – before 16:00 GMT. More details only after you sign an NDA… ;-}
G.
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This reply was modified 10 years, 7 months ago by
gg53.
November 11, 2015 at 12:52 pm #8996There are two ways of getting out of an hedged position that I use: 1. When you got a strong entry signal (according to your “winning” strategy) – close the opposite hedge for just a few pips. once accomplished, return the opposite hedge. There is no TP in this, just reducing the loosing position with each entry until BE. 2. This method involve 2 other (not necessarily related pairs) in an only long position on H4 and/or Daily, when there is an entry signal, and only on Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday – before 16:00 GMT. More details only after you sign an NDA… ;-} G. [/quote]
- When u mention reduce the losing position with each entry? Do u mean by reduce the losing position size or let it remains? So meaning I get in hedge 1 lot get 10-50 pips and then TP close 10-50 pips and enter 1 lot hedge again. But do I just stick with the same losing position size or decrease it gradually as what I written earlier?
- I’m most willing to sign a Non Disclosure Agreement. If I can get rich doing so. I’m not joking even though maybe u are, lol.
Pls advise, thanks a lot.
LearnAlways
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This reply was modified 10 years, 7 months ago by
LearnAlways.
I only know I know nothing
Skype: learnalways@outlook.comNovember 11, 2015 at 1:50 pm #8998Answer to Q1:
Assuming you are in an hedged position, and you got a LONG entry signal according to your “winning” strategy. Now you do the following:
1. Close the SHORT position, but remember where it was.
2. Let the long position run for just a few pips, let’s say 10 pips for example.
3. Put the SHORT hedged position again, in it’s previous size and position + the 10 gained pips.
Do the opposite for short signals.
Relax, coffee, and repeat on next signal… there is no urgency, you can do it again at any conveneint time.
G.
November 11, 2015 at 2:33 pm #9001Answer to Q1: Assuming you are in an hedged position, and you got a LONG entry signal according to your “winning” strategy. Now you do the following: 1. Close the SHORT position, but remember where it was. 2. Let the long position run for just a few pips, let’s say 10 pips for example. 3. Put the SHORT hedged position again, in it’s previous size and position + the 10 gained pips. Do the opposite for short signals. Relax, coffee, and repeat on next signal… there is no ergency, you can do it again at any conveneint time. G.
Thanks for the explanation, but in reality I find it hard to implement it. And what if when u hedge short the long position runs too fast, and the hedge short is losing money instead and the long is still in negative. And price stays in a range. Its extremely tiring to keep on opening hedge position and monitoring to close out and wait for the entry signal for the “winning” strategy.
And what should be the best course of action then? Pls advise, thanks. Have u ever encounter hedging gone wrong, and normally how far apart the pips will u start to hedge?
I only know I know nothing
Skype: learnalways@outlook.comNovember 11, 2015 at 3:35 pm #9002Answer to Q1: Assuming you are in an hedged position, and you got a LONG entry signal according to your “winning” strategy. Now you do the following: 1. Close the SHORT position, but remember where it was. 2. Let the long position run for just a few pips, let’s say 10 pips for example. 3. Put the SHORT hedged position again, in it’s previous size and position + the 10 gained pips. Do the opposite for short signals. Relax, coffee, and repeat on next signal… there is no ergency, you can do it again at any conveneint time. G.
Thanks for the explanation, but in reality I find it hard to implement it. And what if when u hedge short the long position runs too fast, and the hedge short is losing money instead and the long is still in negative. And price stays in a range. Its extremely tiring to keep on opening hedge position and monitoring to close out and wait for the entry signal for the “winning” strategy. And what should be the best course of action then? Pls advise, thanks. Have u ever encounter hedging gone wrong, and normally how far apart the pips will u start to hedge?
1. From your described situation I don’t think that you actually have a “winning” strategy.
2. It’s not “extremely tiring” to open a hedging position. You can do it at your own pace and will. Read again my notes.
3. Do it calmly, there is no rush, just win a few pips at a time.
But again, according to your description – I don’t think you have a “winning” strategy, otherwise you wouldn’t have an “extremely tiring” trading situations.
If that’s how your trading looks like – do yourself a favor and get back to the drawing board.
G.
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