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Thanks for the explanation Saver! With my 50 leverage acc, i can only do app. 0,3 % per trade. If i wanted to run 2% per day, i d had to take app. 7-8 trades per day, which is not a problem for me and the up side is, i have bigger pip-space for the black swan scenario. There are tons of small trades i see and don t bother with each day. I don t think it s necessery to demo this aproach, because one can rack 1 pip trades wth every solid strategy out there.
You are right!
As for % per trade, I use Oanda (1:50) and I can get up to 0.43% per trade in EURUSD but if one goes for lower, then that also increases the probability of success because it increases the amount of time you have per trade due to draw down so very valid point. Also keep in mind that you don’t have to go for 2% a day. With 7-8 trades a day, you run the risk of placing bad trades. If you manage to pick those truly transient levels (fractal tops/bottoms) that doesn’t resolve for days, then your account is done for. When you take a million M1 bars, those places are VERY few, but they still DO exist! How many M1 bars are in a day? 1,440. How many ticks are in a day? Probably 1,440,000. See my point? Even with 99.99% success, how many ticks are there which you will fail? 144! (I want to make a note that I haven’t done the statistics for ticks, I plan to do this later). But assuming above is the case, in any given day, there could be around 144 failure trades, but there are over a million success trades. Probability is still in your favor though
You said “If anyone is wrong only 0.01% of the time” Exactly this is my point. You and I are individuals and not a machine that has a specific failure rate.
Statistically speaking, the 99% success rate on any bar at any time for any direction for TP of 1pip is valid and only valid for 1.5hrs which I did the test on. I want to get some good tick data and perform the test later but I’m sure that will only increase this probability. Also, the 2nd nature of the markets apply to this as well.. which is as time goes to infinity the 99% success rate increases. With a random entry 99% reaches to be > 99.9% within 2 days! This is the reason for not having a SL. Markets are highly recurrent, thats why its very difficult to trade successfully with a SL. It can go both direction with an equal probability for a certain amount of pips and as we go for better R:R, this only means we increase the probability of SL being hit (based on random entry).
The system which I have shared is for a human to trade. With an EA it might be possible as well if anybody wants to give that a shot. But its best traded by hand because then you can pick out those trades that will end within 5 minutes for a 1pip TP. It’s the most easiest thing one could do. Do this 3-4 times a day and you can be near ~1% gain per day. This sounds easy, but its an impossible task for most Forex traders so please respect 1% a day and just aim for that!
Focus, Patience, Determination & Order in chaos
Interesting read, and strangely compelling. I have to admit it always compelling when someone starts mentioning millions…. What if we use the excellent renko indicator to determine trend, I have been using a simple renko of 10, with a 15%shift and a huge 400% flip, no accelaration, I then use a 9, with a 15% shift and 100%shift to confirm. I attahc a screenshot of todays 10pips and 9pips charts.
Haha millions sure does get us all excited
The numbers say its possible but its safest to cash out after small gains of 1000% instead of waiting for 10,000% gain! hahaAs for the Renko charts. It’s a good idea. If you are best at telling trend with Renko, sure, use it!
Focus, Patience, Determination & Order in chaos
Ah ok when the statistic is independent of the human and his trade it could work. I would go for the 99.9 percent after 2 days with a random entry.
How are the statistics for 5 or 10 pips TP?
I updated the first post with a link to a new tick chart indicator that I ended up using and the new EA that I made to help me with the trading. It’s now easier to spot where the true TP line would be and to see the up coming news and current spread.
Also attached is an example of a bad trade which still resolved in about 5hrs. This tends to always work because there always generally is a trend. The best trade is when all trends are in sync but its not necessary. M15 trend is all you need but in case you place it against the M15 trend, there is still a chance you will get saved by the H1-H4 trend since before any directional change, market always does a retest of the support levels. BUT, please do not trade at critical support/resistance levels since there is a high chance that price may not return for days/months.
Anyways, made 5 trades today for an easy 2.2% gain
My next post will be on the trend. I’m trying to make a new indicator to help me with that
I’m leaning towards something based on Money Flow.. let’s see what I come up with!Focus, Patience, Determination & Order in chaos
Ah ok when the statistic is independent of the human and his trade it could work. I would go for the 99.9 percent after 2 days with a random entry. How are the statistics for 5 or 10 pips TP?
If you want to go for 99.9% after 2 days, it’s important that you reduce the TP % per trade to perhaps 0.20% per trade (this means reducing the lot size). Try it out with the EA on a demo account and see what you get
I plan on getting the statistics for tick data which I downloaded recently. I post the charts when I get the chance. What it will look like is an exponential decay where as you increase the TP the probability of success drops exponentially
Focus, Patience, Determination & Order in chaos
We know that a pivot points have a 50 percent chance. Maybe we can add this to our probability. But I guess it doesn’t give us much higher prob and only makes the drawdown higher
Thanks for the update and the EA
What are your settings for the Fxblue tickchart EA
When I press the sell or by button, it gives me error 130, any ideas
Thanks for sharing
Hi Saver0,
I am writing after a long silence while I was testing some stuff
I was reading about your strategy and I have a doubt about the trend decision… to me happened frequently that I was fully wrong also using indicators as moving averages, etc.
In my opinion the power of the small TP is not enought in case of wrong trend decision…
I get invalid tp or sl error when I clicked the buy/sell button, probably broker limits the tp/sl range, how about invisible tp?
When I press the sell or by button, it gives me error 130, any ideas
I get invalid tp or sl error when I clicked the buy/sell button
Hmm.. this is most likely due to the order size being too large. Do you already have trades in? It calculates the order size based on account balance, not free margin. It’s meant to be used to place one single trade. Try reducing the Percent_Return to something lower like 0.3 or 0.2 and let me know if that works.
Focus, Patience, Determination & Order in chaos
What are your settings for the Fxblue tickchart EA
Yes, the settings are:
BarPeriodSeconds: 0
BarPeriodTicks: 1 (we want 1 tick charts)
RangeBarPips: 0
RenkoBarPips: 0
ShowAsOfflinePeriod: 3
And everything else default. Open the offline chart M3 and it should show the 1 tick chart.Focus, Patience, Determination & Order in chaos
OK thanks, That is what I did
So the problem is not there
I still get the 130error when pressing buy or sell button
the 130 error is a price problem, right?
I tried changing size, but no joy, still error messages
let me know if you need me to test other possibilities
the 130 error is a price problem, right?
Yes, you are correct.. I added a bit of debug info to this version of the EA. Please try it out and copy and paste the message you get after the error code.
Also are you using the FX-Blue tick chart or the MathTrader7_ScalpersTCCreator.ex4? The EA won’t work for MathTrader7_ScalpersTCCreator.ex4
Focus, Patience, Determination & Order in chaos
I got some interesting statistics for everyone. I tested this theory with tick data from January 1st 2012 to now for EURUSD.
I checked the probability of success with a TP of 3pips (assuming 2pips for open/close spread). The probability of success came out to be 92.324% for a trade to end successfully within 24 hours!
Total of 354,985 successful trades and 29,513 failed trades. What I did was, I opened a trade on every tick (short and long) and checked to see if it closed with 3pips in profit in both direction within 24 hours.So the theory is accurate, market is HIGHLY recurrent for a small TP!
What this means is, even if we were to trade every tick blindly placing a trade for both directions WITH SL, we would still come out being a winner (assuming the markets and brokers were perfect with no slippage and news spikes, etc). Let’s do the math!
354985 successful trades => +354985pips (that’s 1pip profit each trade after we take out 2 pips for the round turn commission)
29513 failed trades => 29513*(3+2) = –147565pips (that’s with 3pip SL with 2pips for round turn commission)
Total sum = +207,420pips of profit!In theory this is highly exploitable. If we can be good enough telling the trend, then the trades can be certain!
Focus, Patience, Determination & Order in chaos
probability of success with a TP of 3pips the probability of success came out to be 92.324% for a trade to end successfully within 24 hours!
Very interesting! Any idea what a strategy of trailing the trade with 3pips or 30babypips, would yield. I started adding trades without tp and sl, but with a 30babypips trail, and it has been very effective, and the same trade with a simple 10babypips profit, and no stoploss. All of these trades have closed out in profit but the trail method yielded much more profit, for 61 trades almost 50% more in profit, 47% to be exact.
What would you think about an agressive trail instead of fixed TP? Same probability of not having a losing trade ?
I added a bit of debug info to this version of the EA. Please try it out and copy and paste the message you get after the error code.
Concerning the retest, I will run it this evening
Cheers and thanks for the very interesting statistics
the 130 error is a price problem, right?
Yes, you are correct.. I added a bit of debug info to this version of the EA. Please try it out and copy and paste the message you get after the error code. Also are you using the FX-Blue tick chart or the MathTrader7_ScalpersTCCreator.ex4? The EA won’t work for MathTrader7_ScalpersTCCreator.ex4
Thanks a lot Saver0. Great work. Will try it soon …
I got some interesting statistics for everyone. I tested this theory with tick data from January 1st 2012 to now for EURUSD. I checked the probability of success with a TP of 3pips (assuming 2pips for open/close spread). The probability of success came out to be 92.324% for a trade to end successfully within 24 hours! Total of 354,985 successful trades and 29,513 failed trades. What I did was, I opened a trade on every tick (short and long) and checked to see if it closed with 3pips in profit in both direction within 24 hours. So the theory is accurate, market is HIGHLY recurrent for a small TP! What this means is, even if we were to trade every tick blindly placing a trade for both directions WITH SL, we would still come out being a winner (assuming the markets and brokers were perfect with no slippage and news spikes, etc). Let’s do the math! 354985 successful trades => +354985pips (that’s 1pip profit each trade after we take out 2 pips for the round turn commission) 29513 failed trades => 29513*(3+2) = –147565pips (that’s with 3pip SL with 2pips for round turn commission) Total sum = +207,420pips of profit! In theory this is highly exploitable. If we can be good enough telling the trend, then the trades can be certain!
This is really good news bro.
If we have a “sideway” (non trend) indicator, then we can trade safe. Just do not trade 1 hour before & after big impact news.
Any body know a good ‘sideway indicator’ ?Thanks in advance
This theory already checked years ago, and it’s Ok.
The only thing to avoid is not to trade near current market extremes (i.e, SNB & the EURCHF at 1.20 level). Only trade within market “zone”.
Another thing is to whithdraw profits at 20-50% levels, while the remaining account should continue with latest lot sizes.
G.
This theory already checked years ago, and it’s Ok. The only thing to avoid is not to trade near current market extremes (i.e, SNB & the EURCHF at 1.20 level). Only trade within market “zone”. Another thing is to whithdraw profits at 20-50% levels, while the remaining account should continue with latest lot sizes. G.
Thanks a lot G. This will be a ‘killing’ field for the broker
A question: Is it right that a broker can ‘do something’ to our EA, after they know that our EA brings us good profit ? How to prevent this?
Thanks
Another thing is to whithdraw profits at 20-50% levels, while the remaining account should continue with latest lot sizes.
Could you explain this statement pls?
This theory already checked years ago, and it’s Ok. The only thing to avoid is not to trade near current market extremes (i.e, SNB & the EURCHF at 1.20 level). Only trade within market “zone”. Another thing is to whithdraw profits at 20-50% levels, while the remaining account should continue with latest lot sizes. G.
Thanks a lot G. This will be a ‘killing’ field for the broker
A question: Is it right that a broker can ‘do something’ to our EA, after they know that our EA brings us good profit ? How to prevent this? ThanksThings that a broker can do:
slight control of quote price
Change slipage
Change spread
Delay quotes
Requote
G.
Hi, SaverO.
You got too little trades.
I did an EA, and backtested from 2013 01 01 – 2013 01 10. I am buying and Selling with 1 pip TP on every tick. My TP differs from SaverO TP, but TP price doesn’t have influence on trades number. No other filters. And I got over 530000 trades.
You tested 2 years and got only 354,985 + 29,513 trades.
There is only one way of doing a backtest. First create a random history and let your EA ran against it. When it makes a profit, switch to the real history and let it run again. On the real history your EA has to be even better. And use as much history you can get.
Hi, SaverO. You got too little trades. I did an EA, and backtested from 2013 01 01 – 2013 01 10. I am buying and Selling with 1 pip TP on every tick. My TP differs from SaverO TP, but TP price doesn’t have influence on trades number. No other filters. And I got over 530000 trades. You tested 2 years and got only 354,985 + 29,513 trades.
Ticks on backtest are virtual, not real.
That’s why testing this method on backtest is worthless, except for debugging.
G.
If we have a “sideway” (non trend) indicator, then we can trade safe. Just do not trade 1 hour before & after big impact news.
A question: Is it right that a broker can ‘do something’ to our EA, after they know that our EA brings us good profit ? How to prevent this? Thanks
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