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I don’t really think that it’s on fast profits. That’s exactly the point I wanted to make. But from the continuation of this thread some might think that it’s about. You state that “Using it this way – you’ll “see” current market “sentiment” of that TF”.
Wouldn’t it be much easier to just look at the position of the recent price (e.g. close) of a particular candle in a particular TF to know what the sentiment is?! For instance, some could calculate something like
sentiment=(2*Close-High-Low)/(High-Low)
for each candle. This is what I did for the current TF (M15 in EURUSD) in attached image. By combining this sentiment info of different TFs and combine it in any way it’s much easier to spot actual sentiment from a histogram …. (just my opinion)
Eeehm. From which parts of my posts do you conclude that I think your indi is for fast profits? The idea of entry and exits I obtained from statements read here, the offline behaviour of the SSS as well as thing learned from EURUSDD’s posts. It’s just an interpretation as there’s no clear mention on the meaning of different symbols. As you state that your indi contains subsequence analyses, my conclusion would be that the different symbols give potential reversal points with high probability – and also future hitting prices.
SSS is not mine, and never mentioned here by me. EURUSDD’s posts wasn’t mentioned here by me, nor any reference to him.
I also never refered to any of the “symbols” and their meaning.
Also, I never stated that “indi contains subsequence analyses” – since there is no “indi” posted here by me.
G.
I don’t really think that it’s on fast profits. That’s exactly the point I wanted to make. But from the continuation of this thread some might think that it’s about. You state that “Using it this way – you’ll “see” current market “sentiment” of that TF”. Wouldn’t it be much easier to just look at the position of the recent price (e.g. close) of a particular candle in a particular TF to know what the sentiment is?! For instance, some could calculate something like
sentiment=(2*Close-High-Low)/(High-Low) for each candle. This is what I did for the current TF (M15 in EURUSD) in attached image. By combining this sentiment info of different TFs and combine it in any way it’s much easier to spot actual sentiment from a histogram …. (just my opinion)
I see that you edited your reply multiple time after I responded to your original post.
Feel free to make your own “spot easy” calculations and indies on whatever you want and use it to maximize your profits.
BTW: there is no such thing as price “Close” in my vocabulary or my FX market understanding.
G.
gg53, yes, I know that this is your opinion. And although I understand your arguments, I think that the close price has a little but not very much effect as every new trader is taught on the importance of the close price: indicators use the close to calculate whatever, “don’t enter market before the close of current candle”, candlestick patterns are widely based on close prices. And also for your “river profile” you use the X close as base (as the ranges of 4H, hourly, etc., minute bars are set by default of close of highest TF X take into account). Nevertheless, I believe that your thoughts in continuous flows are a novelty to most traders and that it can lead to new insights.
gg53, yes, I know that this is your opinion. And although I understand your arguments, I think that the close price has a little but not very much effect as every new trader is taught on the importance of the close price: indicators use the close to calculate whatever, “don’t enter market before the close of current candle”, candlestick patterns are widely based on close prices. And also for your “river profile” you use the X close as base (as the ranges of 4H, hourly, etc., minute bars are set by default of close of highest TF X take into account). Nevertheless, I believe that your thoughts in continuous flows are a novelty to most traders and that it can lead to new insights.
There is no “X close” in the “river profile”. read again…
It uses the range (max/min) which are the only true facts within that TF.
My “R” statistical tests, on milions samples, on every std indicator showed no significant results. And there are others that also confirmed that.
“Enter on bar close”, “candle patterns”, etc. – requires real account proof. Haven’t seen one yet…
“…trader is taught on the importance of the close price…” – true, and the last I heard is that 95% of them are loosing money….
G.
don’t enter market before the close of current candle
IMO, this argument is more about timing than about price. ‘Close’ is the price of an instrument at an arbitrarily chosen moment in time. Thus, close price is abritrary itself. It means nothing, except at the currently open bar.
s.
A good trader is a realist who wants to grab a chunk from the body of a trend, leaving top- and bottom-fishing to people on an ego trip. (Dr. Alexander Elder)
don’t enter market before the close of current candle
IMO, this argument is more about timing than about price. ‘Close’ is the price of an instrument at an arbitrarily chosen moment in time. Thus, close price is abritrary itself. It means nothing, except at the currently open bar. s.
For me, when something “means nothing” it’s simply ignored… doesn’t exist… not there… NADA…
But your previous argument stated its importance as “wait for close”, “every indicator is based on close”… etc.
But let’s close this argument.
G.
On True Bars/Candles and Market Sentiment:
By now you should have an indicator that shows “channels”, one within the other (based on the picture in post #9085).
Since we know that the water level increases when water amount increase (Volume – range extended),
and we know what was the water level at “normal” water amount,
and we know that there is a direct correlation between water-level (Range) and water amount (Volume),
We know the EXACT RANGE when the Volume will return to its “normal” flow rate.
If you code it correctly you’ll have a highly accurate predictive indicator. It will show the exact range that the price return to after high-volume incidents.
G.
Come on chaps we should have an indicator now – heck I cannot get a video together yet, so I’m not helping much !!!
I understand the concept and logic but struggling – might try changing the strength of my coffee.
Pip
skype : pipatronic
On True bar/Candle:
True Bar/Candle is where Gadi_OBV changes direction (red/yellow dot).
Calculate that Bar/Candle proportions (or Strength) and You’ll know the next TRUE bar direction (>90% probability).
G.
On True bar/Candle: True Bar/Candle is where Gadi_OBV changes direction (red/yellow dot). Calculate that Bar/Candle proportions (or Strength) and You’ll know the next TRUE bar direction (>90% probability). G.
Hi G
How can do this?”You’ll know the next TRUE bar direction”
if you can show this pic, A picture is worth a thousand words.
Sorry for my English.
Best Regards.
Read through this thread 50 times – doing my head in – but I can see how brilliant this can be, anyone any further, I am going to sit in the corner and bash my head against the wall !!!
Pip
skype : pipatronic
Hi gg53,
in one of your posts of the first page you wrote.
It’s also (or mainly) effective because it is based on a basic statistical concept: if two distributions doesn’t overlap, they can be considered different.
As discussed previously, you state that High/Low is the only valid info on “price flow”. Just one thought:
Each candle (or the prize between two chosen time points) has its own distribution. I think we can say that there’s a high probability that price stays longer/more often within Open and Close than within the wicks. This may be not true for small time frames, but will be true for longer TFs that often possess bigger bodies than wicks (for instance, draw a daily candle in M1 chart and check wher pice stays more often/longer). Each TF has it’s own “river bed” and is not just a canal with straight walls. Wouldn’t it be a good deal to consider this “candle” distribution to draw our channels?
Unfortunately I have absolutely no idea how this could be performed. Some ideas regarding this thought?
On True bar/Candle: True Bar/Candle is where Gadi_OBV changes direction (red/yellow dot). Calculate that Bar/Candle proportions (or Strength) and You’ll know the next TRUE bar direction (>90% probability). G.
The dot on the OBV is where we get a change in direction of the OBV (OBV leads price), what I do is have 3 charts up all the same but differing time frames M15 M5 and M1 to zoom in to the action at the current time. If the dot is formed at a turning point do we not already know the market sentiment or are we looking for confirmation.
Still pondering over water, flow and volume and the “normal range”
Just a thought G_Tactics (ForexGT ????)
I will try to puts my ponderings and thoughts together into a video (did try today but it became a fragmented mess)
Pip
skype : pipatronic
Ok! Let’s consider this one a first try, not more! I decided to hold onto Donchian for now, because I already have it and it’s easily implemented with no timeframe fiddling. Also that high sample rate seems advantageous to me. Now, the ‘bottom line’ of our sonar is flattened, while the surface level varies. Could easily be changed to a constant (water) surface level, while ground level varies. Or totally normalized: bottom and surface level flattened. Also possible: eliminate part of the inner lines – highs, lows? Or did you mean to project only the ‘range’ of the inner channels on top of the river bottom? Or below the river surface? Thus we would loose the absolute position of the inner channels inside the outer, engulfing one. Don’t know whether you meant that. In the end, this would only be a different visualization, while the basic channels remain the same. Many different sonar views are possible. s.
Hi sim
I want to aks if you can add a pop alert,when TF1 and TF 5 , and TF 15 channel first touch together,
I found its a good way to find a pullback.
Regards.
Hi gg53, in one of your posts of the first page you wrote.
It’s also (or mainly) effective because it is based on a basic statistical concept: if two distributions doesn’t overlap, they can be considered different.
As discussed previously, you state that High/Low is the only valid info on “price flow”. Just one thought: Each candle (or the prize between two chosen time points) has its own distribution. I think we can say that there’s a high probability that price stays longer/more often within Open and Close than within the wicks. This may be not true for small time frames, but will be true for longer TFs that often possess bigger bodies than wicks (for instance, draw a daily candle in M1 chart and check wher pice stays more often/longer). Each TF has it’s own “river bed” and is not just a canal with straight walls. Wouldn’t it be a good deal to consider this “candle” distribution to draw our channels? Unfortunately I have absolutely no idea how this could be performed. Some ideas regarding this thought?
Well, we don’t know where price been, or visited, the longest TIME. You’ll get an answer for that if you use a “Market Profile” indicator.
The whole idea of this thread is to detach ourselves from the standard Time/Price, which is sample-rate based (TF) and not truely representative.
Also, there is no clear evidence that “staying longer”, or multiple visits, at one specific price have some meaning, and that the market really want to visit that price yet again.
G.
Ok! Let’s consider this one a first try, not more! I decided to hold onto Donchian for now, because I already have it and it’s easily implemented with no timeframe fiddling. Also that high sample rate seems advantageous to me. Now, the ‘bottom line’ of our sonar is flattened, while the surface level varies. Could easily be changed to a constant (water) surface level, while ground level varies. Or totally normalized: bottom and surface level flattened. Also possible: eliminate part of the inner lines – highs, lows? Or did you mean to project only the ‘range’ of the inner channels on top of the river bottom? Or below the river surface? Thus we would loose the absolute position of the inner channels inside the outer, engulfing one. Don’t know whether you meant that. In the end, this would only be a different visualization, while the basic channels remain the same. Many different sonar views are possible. s.
On Donchian:
I suggest you try my “Anti Donchian” strategy…
On every Donchian upper breakout, instead of going LONG, go pending SHORT (Sell-Stop) on that exact same breakout level.
Do the same for the opposite breakout.
Report your success rate comparing the std. Donchian “rule” vs. my “Anti Donchian”…
I can save you the trouble – my “Anti Donchian” strategy wins…
Why? because the river wants to return to the previous, natural “channel”…
G.
on Water Level:
Water-Level cannot be fixed, as one suggested.
Water-level rises (Range Extend) as Volume increase, and vice-versa.
We need to “see” the Volume/Range relationship in order to predict future move of the range.
G.
On True Bars/Candles:
Each space between the vertical lines (based on Gadi_OBV, or later ver.) represent one True Bar/Candle.
From Trough to Peak (Yellow to Red dot) is a true UP bar.
From Peak to Trough (Red to Yellow dot) is a true DOWN bar.
Never mind what happens in between.
G.
The “…Never mind what happened in between…” is categorically and absolute, no exceptions.
If you have some Fibo and/or Support/Resistance and/or any other “voodoo” stuff in between – do yourself a favor and ignore them…
G.
Excellant work all and thank you for your input G, creates lots of positive thought
pip
skype : pipatronic
We need to “see” the Volume/Range relationship in order to predict future move of the range. G.
Just thinking aloud here – re; volume/range relationship, after a large move say on news a bit like the 60% retracement we have been talking about on the VIDEO thread, the water will settle down and so using the volume/range relationship equation it should give us predictive qualitites as to where the price will go
Pip
skype : pipatronic
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