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I said region not religion.
Yes, I have misread it. So, sorry about that.
However, main issue still stands and it is not restricted to whatever we think it may be (religion, region, or any other). Every country is an aggresor, against their own or other people.
I will pray for his release. I am not hopeful however. Thousands of men, women and children have been crucified, beheaded, sold into sex slavery etc in that region, and there is no outrage.
Yeah, it’s hard to cry or shout when your throat is full of OIL… G.
What religion??
http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-34675324
Show me ONE country which did NOT broke so called “human rights” if such ever existed?? Every one of them have done it, doing it and will do it again.
“Stopping by to just spread your negative thoughts based on ignorance does no one any good.”
Ah yes…thoughts based on ignorance….wish you good luck in your trading career…
This idea is not that bad…however most pro do not trade like this, retail may (will be) be asked by broker to leave (of course ONLY if you make money, and I mean Money not pennies) as will be regarded as toxic flow…
https://www.jpmorgan.com/pages/disclosures/fx_notice
This is the (almost )TOP of the mountain..and they are still playing games with their customers….and now you – bottom of the chain..
Market tracer or market follower
What’s your definition of market tracer and market follower?
It is just my own term – some currencies will follow others let say…the way it works it simple law of economics that small economies fiscal policies will always follow bigger ones so:
USA->EU->EM….so market tracers would be EU,GU, UJ (depending on the day, one of those three will lead, others react or lag) and market followers are usually emerging markets currency crosses as they influenced strongly by foreign investments, on direct/indirect inflows and outflows of capital (and their CB reacting on the bigger economies to some
extent)Hope that helps
ps. I don’t know why it come up in bold.
PS. btw I’m waiting my next ‘soon’ in W1 point of view..for EURUSD..
Ta Daaa… that ‘soon’ is this week…lol… Have a nice week end for all…. Best Regards MTH
I hope you not thinking about “that soon”…:D ? When you dive you have to take up some air sometimes. I would follow OIL this time…:)
“ At what point do you enter a recovery trade and for what (lot) size. “
Not necessarily in the way you think as you can apply it in opposite way, that is 1, Fibonacci progression (1,1,2,3,5,8…) that is 2….90% of market repeats the prices (comes back to it…that is 3)
“Nothing in the above EA parameters should be “hard coded” – the “Perfect Trader” EA should adapt to market conditions and the currency pair “DNA”.
Define “DNA”…it will be easier to know how do you understand it so we are on the same page? That is how I understand it…
1. Volatility
2. Speed
3. Balanced/Unbalanced
4. Market tracer or market follower
5. Current trend
6. Following or leading prime markets…(constantly changing)
DNA is something dynamic …personally I think that.
Don’t you think that there is an issue (contradiction) in what you have just wrote?
“ preconditions: profitability at random entry. Planning recoveries would require a non-random entry strategy.”
If random entry, how can you press the winners (scale to winning positions) without planning it? You want to scale at random??? You have to have some assumptions? So all entries cannot be random, can’t they?
It all started from a train of thought of running a system without a stop loss.”
It is not about stop loss, as YOU have to take loss on sour position…part of the game…and originator of the thread mentioned it. I think that he meant that it shouldn’t be rigid rather preconditioned to market…current pair volatility would be my 5 cents here..
Hi,
It is nice that you are going that way.
While managing existing position (bad position)……only two option exist…
1. Recovery
2. Somebody called it “biting the bullet”…in the other words closing down…
1a. Bad position – wrong timing or wrong direction (against the flow/trend)
And personally I think that this is the ONLY way to go…so absolutely adore the idea, only problem is that no robot can substitute for human being in vastly changing conditions, however other part of me knows that it is possible as nothing is impossible.
regards
D.
ps. there is one guy who was talking about it (first point above) and he was retired after 2x years as pro trader for major tier 1 bank (dealing with spot fx on top senior position) as far as I remember he said that you have to understand:
– martingale
– Fibonacci progression
– log arithmetic spirals
…and that all secrets lies in the pi and its skew…he was applying those things to SIZE..not price..think about it..
and most importante… it is about what market is doing…like gg said it, methods cannot be rigid as they have to adapt to market conditions…and market is not rigid place
4. 5 trillion a day market IS A FALLACY…think about it as most of you think about spot while FX contains futures, options and forwards…+ spot you trading/gambling at. Why is it fallacy? Tiny hint. Retail trader x trades 1 lot with retail trader y. One is selling and other is buying, both have 1000$ on their account….yet their trade in volume is larger than their accounts combined. How is that possible. That is FAKE side of the market – Tier 3- micro world of retail. Mercedes-Benz comes to DB and want to BUY 200 mln $ to fund their US operations…and pay in Euros…through the phone they say how much they want and at what price, DB will accept (as they are probably their dealer) and USE forward deliverable to close the deal. What this does to DB is this…..DB is now 200mil $ short (as they have Mercedes Euros) so any move in $ against them will create HOLE in their balance sheet (they will loose on the deal). In the other words DB HAS LONG EUR/USD position…..so they will hedge same amount on spot FX …….BUT TO DO IT SOMEBODY HAS TO TAKE OTHER SIDE OF THAT TRADE…. It will be either THEIR own client (on their internal exchange as every tier 1 bank their operate few) OR other banks if they send this quote to EBS/REUTERS…..and DB counter party lets say UBS ….and this bank have agreements as liquidity provider with brokers and other exchanges and they will show those “200mil” quote to them because they know if they hit that button UBS can hedge it instantly on EBS……so we have 200 mln in EBS, 200 mln to some brokers and 200 millions to some exchanges in total few times 200 mil liquidity (let say x5 = 1 bil) provided and in reality ONLY 200 millions liquidity. It is even worse than that as there are MANY MARKET participants and many quotes so market really multiplying liquidity levels…..
Hi Revolution, I was reading this thread and your style seemed familiar to me. Then I read the above example which is exactly the same as orderflowtrading.com’s Lesson 3 (http://www.orderflowtrading.com/LearnOrderFlow/Mindset/Lesson3.aspx). Is that correct? I mean are you orderflowtrading.com ? Best regards…
No, I am not. Darkstar is the originator of the website I believe….similarity accidental, maybe because I have read it long time ago and it stayed in my head…anyways still works the same…
Hi Brother, Please forgive me.. I just ordinary man, so this is only my own opinion without any ‘formal’ knowledge. Is not about indicators or tools, it just my own experience starring chart for more than 12 years.. , even we could see it with only naked chart (since chart also indicator)..
But isn’t that what trading is about. I like your statement!
Look guys, it is good to know how these things work…but that is all. Don’t try to learn it, it is for you info only. There are some guys who know this staff better than anyone else but they are shit traders, hence they teach others :D Also the way to make money and others fall for it. So Kiads here is giving you best advice you can get…experience in the end will make you profitable but you have to watch that staff, feel it. I am not saying that indis does not work, I am saying without your own judgment they will not work as market is not mechanical and you are not computers….
Even if you will find value indicator, you will have to make judgment call whether VALUE will chase price or the other way around, only in few situations it will be obvious.
Now, I will be quiet and you guys continue, sorry to cut in.
Actually before you do answer I will move this little bit forward as you have NO IDEA what are you talking about. You do not know how market structure works, not only FX, but overall. Faster we will go over it faster we reach the target. Don’t take it personally BlackStack, ok? Believe in whatever you want.
1.For paper money to exist there have to be something underlying as if there isn’t, you will have Zimbabwe in your country. So again what is it?
2. If we are in the world of Aristotle: in the whole there is more wealth in USE then in OWNERSHIP? What does it mean? Wealth in use and in ownership?
3. Bond market is THE PRIMARY MARKET as this is where it is all starts from macro side….or if you prefer from micro point of view “mr. Jones come to shop and BUY socks (to be easier this are not american socks as those were imported to US.)
4. 5 trillion a day market IS A FALLACY…think about it as most of you think about spot while FX contains futures, options and forwards…+ spot you trading/gambling at. Why is it fallacy?
Tiny hint. Retail trader x trades 1 lot with retail trader y. One is selling and other is buying, both have 1000$ on their account….yet their trade in volume is larger than their accounts combined. How is that possible. That is FAKE side of the market – Tier 3- micro world of retail.
Mercedes-Benz comes to DB and want to BUY 200 mln $ to fund their US operations…and pay in Euros…through the phone they say how much they want and at what price, DB will accept (as they are probably their dealer) and USE forward deliverable to close the deal. What this does to DB is this…..DB is now 200mil $ short (as they have Mercedes Euros) so any move in $ against them will create HOLE in their balance sheet (they will loose on the deal). In the other words DB HAS LONG EUR/USD position…..so they will hedge same amount on spot FX …….BUT TO DO IT SOMEBODY HAS TO TAKE OTHER SIDE OF THAT TRADE…. It will be either THEIR own client (on their internal exchange as every tier 1 bank their operate few) OR other banks if they send this quote to EBS/REUTERS…..and DB counter party lets say UBS ….and this bank have agreements as liquidity provider with brokers and other exchanges and they will show those “200mil” quote to them because they know if they hit that button UBS can hedge it instantly on EBS……so we have 200 mln in EBS, 200 mln to some brokers and 200 millions to some exchanges in total few times 200 mil liquidity (let say x5 = 1 bil) provided and in reality ONLY 200 millions liquidity. It is even worse than that as there are MANY MARKET participants and many quotes so market really multiplying liquidity levels…..if JPM and Citi are liquidity providers to currenex and they BOTH see 200 mln quote on EBS they will “show” 200 mln each to currenex clients that is 400mln in total. Why do you think that gave you LEVERAGE…CREDIT FOR FREE ??? Have you ever heard about credit for free?? They needed you as that risk taker, to spread it across market place and minimize the risk.
5 Trillion market is just fallacy for guys like you……HOT POTATO changing HANDS…..to simplify it….I have one mandarin in hand and you are allowed to hold it, every time bank/broker/speculator have touch it or holding it his bearing that risk and THEY WANT TO MOVE IT ON TO ANOTHER PARTY….and this party IS YOU…you bear the risk , you RETAIL TRADER you are risk taker…end user of the SPOT FX or any other speculator on ECN marketplace.
And guys from above post tells me that primary drive of market is manipulation…..ok, I will
:)ps. I have to go with dogs , so I am sorry for any mistakes as written quickly.
ps2. edited :D
I copied this from a webpage, as I would not explain it as well as this does. According to Aristotle, for something to be considered money, is has to fulfill four characteristics: 1) It must be durable. It can’t fade, corrode. 2) It must be portable. It has to be ‘dense’ so that you can take it with you when you travel to the market. 3) It must be divisible or, ‘fungible.’ This means that if you break it up into smaller pieces each smaller piece when you add them up will equal the value of the original piece. 4) It must have intrinsic value. This means it must have value whether or not it’s used as money per se. Governments issue fiat money. Fiat … by decree of the government saying that the currency is money when it is not. What is the intrinsic value of a paper currency? The value of the paper it is written on. Manipulation is not a byproduct of the market. It is a prime driver of most markets. Easier to do manipulation on stock and bond markets because they are so small. More difficult to do with the currency exchange market but the governments have admitted that they have been doing it.
With all do respect to Aristotle, can explain to us HOW IS THIS GOING TO HELP US TO FIND VALUE/STRENGTH?
If manipulation is NOT byproduct and it is prime driver EXPLAIN to us how this manipulation WORKS please, I would like to hear. And it is apparently easy to manipulate BOND market because it is small :) Please tell us how it is DONE?
Where governments admitted it that they have done it – manipulate currency and how they have done it?
ps. for others reading if there are any…how is paper money created (either in physical form (1% in circulation or electronic) ??
The FX market is currency exchange. Currencies are not money .
If currencies are not money, what is? And where did I wrote that currencies are money? Read it again please.
“They are issued by government by fiat. Hence the term fiat money, which is what a currency is”
So you say that currencies are not money and few words later “… fiat money, which is what a currency is” . So it is not money it is FIAT money?
What does it mean issued by FIAT? You mean issued by governments as fiat currencies??? Term FIAT means NOT BACKED by physical commodity, based on S/D law…
“Gold is money”
Say it to those who bought it in 2011/2012…$ was FALLING in price while GOLD was RISING…today other way around…in other words can’t be unless you are gold bug :)
Come on people…what is today’s GOLD for currency?? Think like them WHAT WOULD YOU DO WITH 1 Billion $ if you would be scared to loose them…or need to keep it in LIQUID market in case you would need cash? Forget about FX…we are talking about Value/strength and where is it comes from.
ps. Also forget for a moment about “manipulation” as it is just byproduct of how the markets works…let say lesser friend of the big boy called FLOW.
ps2. please don’t get annoyed…it is just my way to answer I seem to be arrogant sometimes but it is not true, I just like to challenge people :D
This is what it looked like…
Sorry for the late reply, but really fascinating result! and very good talk is going on. not index, not value, but strength! very interesting! I am novice to this area so I will wait and see.
<h2>”not value, but strength”</h2>
What is the difference? If there is rising value there is rising strength. It is just words, nothing else Jim apart from one subtle thing – time.
How about this, what makes one currency desired by others? Is it determined by current economical factors? Definitely is!! Why? Because value is just a stardust, something intangible/unsubstantial YET some currencies rise and fall because of some reasons which means…….that there are some factors which influence value and what also follows…. price.
Why somebody buys/sells one currency? I am not asking about cross, forget about it, I am asking about the value of prime, single currency, let call it X. What makes X to rise in value and getting stronger? And first of all WHAT IS MONEY? What is it exactly?
You must define money and its value to understand strength of X, if you need predictive indicator YOU NEED TO UNDERSTAND VALUE OF MONEY…as when value is rising (X is more desired) somebody buys it and X is gaining strength hence price is rising!
Just my opinion…
ps. Why when $ rising is rising across all markets, not one or two but all, think about it.
Thanks everybody, You have open my eyes, and I did learn something valuable here. Greatly appreciate. Maybe all u guys are all right, its just different parts of the elephant (Buddha story about elephant, A group of blind ppl are told to describe an elephant using their sense of touch since they can’t see. Therefore their description is all part of the elephant, trunk, tail, ear, etc. Not the whole picture, But they are all right in a way, Didn’t mean to say u guys are blind so pls don’t be offended, u get what I mean) Pls carry on this discussion if there’s any merit. from the youtube video, I saw they have an average price between bid and ask with lots sizes description also, But the movement is too fast. Q) I mean how do they enter in the market? using EA or manual because the speed is not humanely possible? Best Regards, LearnAlways
It is normal speed of the market, in reality probably even faster…it is just your platform which shows it slower ;) How do you enter the market? Just like them, as they are not any different from you apart from few behavioral modifications learnt of the way…
Algos in FX are much in less use than lets say equities market or futures….they do exist in liquid markets in FX, like EU, GU, UJ and some larger stream like AUD, CAD, maybe MXN….so narrower spreads, shorter quote life, smaller quotes size, more frequent trades…but also liquidity mirages (something gg was referring to), “hot potato” volume.
I never said it’s for retail trader. Retail traders can’t lift the heavy weight… But Financial institution are doing it all the time, and it’s perfectly legal. Did you worked in big financial institution trading room? or visited there? Have you programmed a Bid/Ask software algo? Or seen one at work? I sure hope you enjoy the video with 1 pip interval… G.
Big financial institutions, from banks to HF do not know their competitors order flow. Setting and removing limits orders on any security on any market is daily normality, they do it however to disorient the other party algos and you trying to imply that some institutions make their decisions because somebody sees a large order below or above the price. Do you know how it sounds, like gambling that somebody will not remove such order so we buy/sell. GG I am not saying that this is not happening, ok? I am saying that the price move because of different factors/reasons…
ps. leaving because of disagreement? That is the last thing you need in trading :) So come back please and contribute.
On large orders – they will manipulate the market. If they need to buy 50 milion USD, they will SELL 1 mil every few minutes to drop the price, and then start to buy at a cheaper price – again in small chunks.
This is an interesting topic too.. I have been thinking about how they might be manipulating the markets. I don’t have any buddies that work at any big banks so I have no idea. But I was thinking that if I had the money to be able to manipulate markets the way I would do it might be in the following way. If I need to buy 100 million EUR with my USD, I would lower the price of EUR indirectly. The way I would do this is by increasing the demand of the other currencies indirectly lowering the demand for the EUR. And while this is going on, I would buy up EUR. I need to put more thought into it but this is the idea behind that basket currency indicator that I made. What it’s showing me I think is the manipulation that happens before the big move across related currencies.
Think of it like this… When customers buying $ they making banks (MM) short of $, unlike their traders. After all they are MM and that is their nature. Brokers do have bunch of limit orders from MM – their providers so they are able to make market for you….. To move the price MM can front run their client orders (execute at “best” market price) or move immediately (execute at market price instant) Limit orders provide liquidity, market orders consume it. That is why during the news we have such moves as MM removing liquidity from the market – limiting their exposure and risk. Who is the counter party to banks and MM’s? Your brokers, clients, HF and PF’s managed by other companies….market structure have changed recently as their is more “liquidity providers” MM’s market share is now less than 50%…so markets became more efficient and it is generally cheaper, also you do not realize that they operate WITHOUT LEVERAGE unlike you. Market moves because of ….think guys why do market moves..especially decentralized forex market? For each buyer there have to be seller so it is not “more buyers moves market up”..it is more buyers are willing to pay higher price for the “whatever it is”…they click those buttons and consume level after level…. Think like them THEY CANNOT JUST CLICK BUTTON AND DONE if they have big order they have to work it..that is why you have consolidation periods mistakenly called by others as equilibrium as there is no such thing because you tell me where is the equilibrium? So if you look for your currency strength MAYBE (and it is just suggestion) you look at the price but not every price bar more like important handles or bar clusters at important levels… ps. it is not that simple as gg thinks market have lots of participants and people who wait for the banks mistakes…advanced DOMes will show you friends despite you do not know who they are (sometimes probably they know :) ) who buy/sell also at similar levels (handles) ps. “billion dollar traders” watch it…..you will be able to grasp it.. ps3. did anyone ever asked himself what is spot fx and why it has been created? Usually it is used as the hedge machine..and only times to profit are the times of when MM is unbalanced correctly or prop traders either from banks or HF hunt for – someone call it “sitting ducks level” – stop losses……which means they HUNT for liquidity…so nothing against you guys …as gg said THEY NEED TO FILL THEIR ORDERS AT THE BEST PRICE WITHOUT SLIPPAGE…
please everybody read what revolution has said in his quote this is the way market works there is no other way but this way. limit order/stops/……
Not true. Limit orders are the cheapest way to manipulate the market. Market Makers are using it all the time. You can put a limit order of considerable sum and at the last minute, when price comes to where you want it to be – cancel it. That’s market manipulation, it’s done all the time by market makers and movers, and it cost them nothing… G.
So please explain how does it manipulate the price of any security by setting and removing orders? On your example : if gg comes to the market and set limit order on xxx price of any security and when price comes close to his handle/level he removes the order…so gg is market manipulator? And before you ask, how does it differ between gg’s $0.1 and banks $10 limit order? There is no difference and there is no manipulation….of course my understanding of the word manipulation may differ from gg’s hence misunderstanding.
Brokers & Financial Institutions doesn’t use MT4…. They can see Level 2 and Level 1 DOM – which means they can see pending orders, price & lots per each pending order. If someone puts 50 mil. pending order to buy EURUSD 20 pips away from current price – they can see it. The market will react to such an order, or consecutive smaller ones in same direction. …and… those pending orders can be canceled at will… Draw your conclusion how to call it. G.
I am sorry but it is just nonsense. No professional trader will do it and If he/she will do and will tell somebody he/she will get into trouble. You cannot see such thing as it moves to fast …traders looking at the price levels at which there is liquidity (actual market orders hitting bids) and when the price want to shoot off somebody blocks it..if there is no liquidity market moves lower/higher to find it, and again same play, usually you know from charts where the levels are and you looking at those price levels through DOM. Newbee traders have no chance to look at chart for first few months…they looking at DOM for few months…and they have chores to do everyday…ie. scalp market for 3 ticks, do 100 trades a day, entry at random and manage trade…it is different world than the one you operate in……Don’t take it personally but you have not seen DOM and how it works!
Interesting I have found something on YT ..archaic model of DOM…tell me gg where is the big order??? HFT also does not look for such things as they usually operate between spread and their quotes are such that you will never get as retail trader….
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NftY6J_sKeI
Can you grasp the concept now?
“Brokers & Financial Institutions doesn’t use MT4….”
Thanks I will note it in my notepad.
On large orders – they will manipulate the market. If they need to buy 50 milion USD, they will SELL 1 mil every few minutes to drop the price, and then start to buy at a cheaper price – again in small chunks.
This is an interesting topic too.. I have been thinking about how they might be manipulating the markets. I don’t have any buddies that work at any big banks so I have no idea. But I was thinking that if I had the money to be able to manipulate markets the way I would do it might be in the following way. If I need to buy 100 million EUR with my USD, I would lower the price of EUR indirectly. The way I would do this is by increasing the demand of the other currencies indirectly lowering the demand for the EUR. And while this is going on, I would buy up EUR. I need to put more thought into it but this is the idea behind that basket currency indicator that I made. What it’s showing me I think is the manipulation that happens before the big move across related currencies.
Think of it like this… When customers buying $ they making banks (MM) short of $, unlike their traders. After all they are MM and that is their nature. Brokers do have bunch of limit orders from MM – their providers so they are able to make market for you….. To move the price MM can front run their client orders (execute at “best” market price) or move immediately (execute at market price instant) Limit orders provide liquidity, market orders consume it. That is why during the news we have such moves as MM removing liquidity from the market – limiting their exposure and risk. Who is the counter party to banks and MM’s? Your brokers, clients, HF and PF’s managed by other companies….market structure have changed recently as their is more “liquidity providers” MM’s market share is now less than 50%…so markets became more efficient and it is generally cheaper, also you do not realize that they operate WITHOUT LEVERAGE unlike you. Market moves because of ….think guys why do market moves..especially decentralized forex market? For each buyer there have to be seller so it is not “more buyers moves market up”..it is more buyers are willing to pay higher price for the “whatever it is”…they click those buttons and consume level after level…. Think like them THEY CANNOT JUST CLICK BUTTON AND DONE if they have big order they have to work it..that is why you have consolidation periods mistakenly called by others as equilibrium as there is no such thing because you tell me where is the equilibrium? So if you look for your currency strength MAYBE (and it is just suggestion) you look at the price but not every price bar more like important handles or bar clusters at important levels… ps. it is not that simple as gg thinks market have lots of participants and people who wait for the banks mistakes…advanced DOMes will show you friends despite you do not know who they are (sometimes probably they know :) ) who buy/sell also at similar levels (handles) ps. “billion dollar traders” watch it…..you will be able to grasp it.. ps3. did anyone ever asked himself what is spot fx and why it has been created? Usually it is used as the hedge machine..and only times to profit are the times of when MM is unbalanced correctly or prop traders either from banks or HF hunt for – someone call it “sitting ducks level” – stop losses……which means they HUNT for liquidity…so nothing against you guys …as gg said THEY NEED TO FILL THEIR ORDERS AT THE BEST PRICE WITHOUT SLIPPAGE…
please everybody read what revolution has said in his quote this is the way market works there is no other way but this way. limit order/stops/……
Not true. Limit orders are the cheapest way to manipulate the market. Market Makers are using it all the time. You can put a limit order of considerable sum and at the last minute, when price comes to where you want it to be – cancel it. That’s market manipulation, it’s done all the time by market makers and movers, and it cost them nothing… G.
So please explain how does it manipulate the price of any security by setting and removing orders?
On your example : if gg comes to the market and set limit order on xxx price of any security and when price comes close to his handle/level he removes the order…so gg is market manipulator? And before you ask, how does it differ between gg’s $0.1 and banks $10 limit order? There is no difference and there is no manipulation….of course my understanding of the word manipulation may differ from gg’s hence misunderstanding.
LA:
Hi Revolution, Q) It is not as simple as u said it, so do u mind explaining it in more simpler terms??? Currency moves because of major fundamental Central Bank Policies? The so called noise or wild swings are what MM used to establish positions themselves and wipe out those SL too? Q) advanced DOMes stands for what? Do u mind elaborating how can we make use of this info u presented, we all know MM hunt stops, so what’s the solution? No SL? or Wait for them to wipe out those SL and join them in the same direction? Thanks for explaining and Best Regards, LearnAlways [/quote]
Hi La,
1. Currency moves because of the global flow, risk aversion, interest in type of securities, who is lending and where and in which currency….so large participants interest may differ however flow remains the same….think about it…what are the biggest markets out there? Bond markets are the fat. SO today you have NEGATIVE interest on EU bonds (some of the members) which investors are willing to buy (some positive but not so attractive :) ) On this one reason I can judge that they will sell Euro and buy $ as UST pays better….don’t think about it through one market only it is complex thing but entangled together…there are some other reasons like paying back debt in $ …
Read about market structure it is there in net, still for free.
1.CB – their participation is very small, probably about 1 % however when they intervene (or stop, CHF exp.) price moves significantly.
CB dealers – do things for CB some of them are tier 1 banks (eyes on the market) Usually CB don’t care much but when they do “ouch” may happen.
Then tier 2 banks and tier 3 market – ECN, brokers and their clients, smaller banks, HF, PF and others participants – today large enough to move markets as well.
To question of yours about swings…
Big Banks goes for liquidity and guesstimate (well….little bit better than that as they have their client flow and they know but will not share these information between each other (at least officially) If you are a trader and have large order to execute let say 2 billion of $ to sell and client is interested to buy £…trader will not execute this trade at once as it is tooo big and he will get lots of slippage and market will probably will come back to or near level of execution because of vacuum created by this order…so you see why they have to look for liquidity in the market? To execute at better price and fill it all without slippage…..also MM sometimes have to re balance their books…as they are against the flow.
DOM – depth of market – bids, offers, how many, at what level, market orders hitting bids or offers, trade volume at level…
SL no SL your choice…where are ducks sitting? Look at you past charts, different TF and look at places where market goes below/above last low/high levels and comes back…
It is always better to go with the flow it sounds easy but as you see it is not as…wait and join or go to yes but you have to know when that is why it is easier to trade with main trend but your level of pain have to be big (DD) . I know what you have in your head…A: do you really think that you have bottom/top?
regards.
ps. let us not continue here as this is a different subject and I don’t want to cause mess here.
On large orders – they will manipulate the market. If they need to buy 50 milion USD, they will SELL 1 mil every few minutes to drop the price, and then start to buy at a cheaper price – again in small chunks.
This is an interesting topic too.. I have been thinking about how they might be manipulating the markets. I don’t have any buddies that work at any big banks so I have no idea. But I was thinking that if I had the money to be able to manipulate markets the way I would do it might be in the following way. If I need to buy 100 million EUR with my USD, I would lower the price of EUR indirectly. The way I would do this is by increasing the demand of the other currencies indirectly lowering the demand for the EUR. And while this is going on, I would buy up EUR. I need to put more thought into it but this is the idea behind that basket currency indicator that I made. What it’s showing me I think is the manipulation that happens before the big move across related currencies.
Think of it like this…
When customers buying $ they making banks (MM) short of $, unlike their traders. After all they are MM and that is their nature. Brokers do have bunch of limit orders from MM – their providers so they are able to make market for you…..
To move the price MM can front run their client orders (execute at “best” market price) or move immediately (execute at market price instant)
Limit orders provide liquidity, market orders consume it. That is why during the news we have such moves as MM removing liquidity from the market – limiting their exposure and risk.
Who is the counter party to banks and MM’s? Your brokers, clients, HF and PF’s managed by other companies….market structure have changed recently as their is more “liquidity providers” MM’s market share is now less than 50%…so markets became more efficient and it is generally cheaper, also you do not realize that they operate WITHOUT LEVERAGE unlike you.
Market moves because of ….think guys why do market moves..especially decentralized forex market? For each buyer there have to be seller so it is not “more buyers moves market up”..it is more buyers are willing to pay higher price for the “whatever it is”…they click those buttons and consume level after level….
Think like them THEY CANNOT JUST CLICK BUTTON AND DONE if they have big order they have to work it..that is why you have consolidation periods mistakenly called by others as equilibrium as there is no such thing because you tell me where is the equilibrium?
So if you look for your currency strength MAYBE (and it is just suggestion) you look at the price but not every price bar more like important handles or bar clusters at important levels…
ps. it is not that simple as gg thinks market have lots of participants and people who wait for the banks mistakes…advanced DOMes will show you friends despite you do not know who they are (sometimes probably they know :) ) who buy/sell also at similar levels (handles)
ps. “billion dollar traders” watch it…..you will be able to grasp it..
ps3. did anyone ever asked himself what is spot fx and why it has been created? Usually it is used as the hedge machine..and only times to profit are the times of when MM is unbalanced correctly or prop traders either from banks or HF hunt for – someone call it “sitting ducks level” – stop losses……which means they HUNT for liquidity…so nothing against you guys …as gg said THEY NEED TO FILL THEIR ORDERS AT THE BEST PRICE WITHOUT SLIPPAGE…
Thanks, MTH. But Renko in this configuration are always 45 degreeas, and I need to “filter out” bars that extend beyond that. Another problem with that method is loosing track of “time” – i.e WHEN the predicted price will be, according to the rate of change. G.
Before playing with angles you will have to square your charts ….ie.. 10 points to 1 h (1h to 1pip) or whichever ratio suits you…but it has to be square …
ps. had to correct obvious mistake
regards,
R.
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Hi Guys,
I new here and reading your insights with interest. I have my own opinion on why you all have been “removed” from FF but I will keep it to myself.
I do understand that this forum supposed to be without influence of the “dark side” ;) , so why wont you limit discussion to registered members only as like have been mentioned above “some ideas don’t want to be shared in public” ?
I have followed transient zones on FF tread and I did some testing on TZ only, no other indicators..from 5k$ to 10k in 3 days…however:
– no Sl has been used
– biggest DD was 1,5k after tp was hit
– used heavy lots
– from 30 to 150 points tp used (3-15pip)
:)