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I still see TZs everywhere on my charts hehe. Once seen, never to be unseen.
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interesting. I’m in the process of building a proper framework in python (with no coding experience) so it’ll take me a while but once i get up to speed i’ll certainly be curious to explore this
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isn’t h=50 with a 96.6% probability quite a bit lower than a regular t-bar? I haven’t tried this particular method because it seems a little messy, but I suppose not without its potential merit. What I mean is that within the life
What it sounds like (and maybe I’m wrong, a picture is always helpful :) ) is that you’re essentially looking at a histogram of market price – a count of how many times a particular price, or bin of prices, has been touched within time span h. While I haven’t tried this particular method because it seems a little messy, but I suppose not without its potential merit. What I mean is that within the lifetime of a particular bar x, price can run up and down many times. That’s just theory of course. In the rough reflexiveness of the market, hourly bars don’t tend to be too range bound. I think it’s worth a look, at least to understand how that market structure behaves.
I have, however, looked at a much broader version of this, looking at how price flows through the 100 and 50 pip levels (1.1700,1.1600,1.1650,etc). Combined with transient theory it might be cool to study. I might put it back on my list of things to revisit when I get the chance.
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I’m not an expert on the sim system but when considering descriptive statistics about a forecasting model, average, min/max are NOT what you want. Simply put, it’s just not very helpful when it comes to making trades. This is because due to the nature of the market (news events and risk on/off environments), the mins tend to be very very low, while the maxima tend to be very high. Additionally, knowing the average will (at best) give you a good entry, however it provides no time line or price point for your stop.
Instead, frequency distributions provide a much more clear picture of what possible scenarios can look like. As a bonus, you don’t really need to do too many more calculations compared to avg/min/max to get these numbers.
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^… would be quite curious to see some people pick this one up.. hard to make sense of what Rel is doing sometimes though..
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On the other hand: was there any sign of substantial conceptual content in the new thread? I did not find any.
Could have been but we’ll never know will we? Admittedly he wasn’t quite on track to share something but you never know.. Maybe that’s why I’d make an awful cop; if you can’t read the signs you don’t deserve to be around
I would be interested to see too. I fail to comprehend how understand how anticipating moves to the tick is still not satisfactory… if I could predict moves even within 10 pips I would be gone in my i8
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So far it seems very similar to the idea of alternating zones; a top TZ being continued with a bottom TZ. will be interesting to see how this develops and how it differs..
What I mean is the following. Lets take for example what you witnessed: “I saw even NZD news shaking GBPUSD around.” What you saw is how NZD news affects GBPUSD. The ratios of the price change between NZDUSD and GBPNZD and GBPUSD should give an indication as to the “value” of NZD priced into GBPUSD. It’s difficult to explain what’s in my head.. I assume NZDUSD and GBPNZD moved by different pip amounts. In reality, GBPUSD shouldn’t have had any affect yet you saw it move as well. This move in GBPUSD has to have some correlation with NZD and the ratio of this move I think can be used to calculate value during normal times. I will have to test this out when I have time. Also, what we know is that the price must always go back to “value”. In theory, we should be able to trade mismatches between price and value.
Nice to see you around friend :)
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@pipatronic goodluck indeed! Would you be willing to talk about it at all (possibly in private if you’re more comfortable?) or is this all solo secret stuff?
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Okay, seems to be in line with what I thought. Interesting to know that the equity curve is the result of multiple time frames! Are you just using the same strategy that was reviewed in the thread? (Waiting for a completed TZ first, and trading the second one) I’ll be interested to know how the rest of your strategy plays out! I’m tempted to try this out myself, I expect there’s a lot to learn from it.
Hi CSendo, I spent 8 months to nail fully the FX-Jay base-model, checking all trades he did, charts and messages. In the end he was honestly sharing practically everything, and there was nothing else than the interpretation around TZ. There are a lot of different interpretations (I found at least 5) so his suggestion to follow our own way to research was correct. Our fantasy will help us. I can suggest something, but I would like to exchange different point of views, use your imagination to “extract” what you see from charts. I will continue to look for a key in this, potentially I’ve never seen a so high probability pattern (including the big drawdowns).
Your dedication is inspiring sir. I was fairly unsuccessful in implementing the strategy that was revealed in the thread (IIRC, it was a while ago haha) and I instead worked on a variation of it on my own; not using the TZs directly but modeling price based around them. Perhaps it’s worth taking a closer look at again :)
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Okay, seems to be in line with what I thought. Interesting to know that the equity curve is the result of multiple time frames! Are you just using the same strategy that was reviewed in the thread? (Waiting for a completed TZ first, and trading the second one) I’ll be interested to know how the rest of your strategy plays out! I’m tempted to try this out myself, I expect there’s a lot to learn from it.
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Hi, almost 1 year trading on a paper account following FX-Jay’s style (never disclosed the strategy with me of course) – image attached. Obviously MT4 has the big issue on the real drawdown calculation, but what I think is that the trading style is risky because truly you have the majority of trades closing positively but when you have the looser one… it’s pain, real pain for the account the real drawdown in last year was around 90%, so not sustainable I suppose this is the reason why FX-Jay tried to continued to look for a new trading style, because he was lucky enought to tranform 10k in 400k in less than 3 months but he has seen what I have seen… Thank you for your comments and opinion D.
Impressive! Both in the result and in the time duration. Care to share any of your thoughts on anything you learned? You say that it is unsustainable, but did you or do you (to some extent) think that this type of strategy may have a true edge? I say this because I know of a few traders who trade *kind of* like this, where they incur high “live DD” (aka closing the current losing trade would result in say 15, 20, 30%+ loss) but relatively small “true DD” (drawdown in equity graph). From the info I’ve garnered from these traders, they use no SL, they add on (sometimes in greater size) to the losing position (how many rules do they break here??) BUT at the end of the day they are profitable. I would think that trading an entire YEAR is quite a stress test of how well the system can perform, depending on the time frame. It also has made me wonder if trading at the retail level is really like a top tier performance skill, where the winners win big, and do so via the seemingly slimmest of margins. If one can take 10k and make 400 (40x) it seems well worth it to continue with account money management, like trading 2 5k accounts and letting a margin call take the trader out flat, rather than using a single 10k account and lowering risk.
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If you doubt it then what’s the point of the post?
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Interesting take and completely valid to argue.. I see the original idea being presented as theory rather than instruction so you can add additional components as necessary. Getting rid of the wicks has been discussed, however I think the problem that remains are the MTZs or middle transient zones. These are the areas with no wick that can still fail, and often times greatly because they come about via news events and price is very one-dimensional. Thoughts on counter-acting losing in these zones?
It’s really simple: one of them is “magnetic”. You can choose which one, and he’s kind enough in providing a lot to choose from, and you even got different choice of colors …. ;-}
I had no idea! It’s soooo simple! Once again G. came around and opened my eyes. ;-} s.
Trust me I’ve been using this system for about 5 hours now and I made so much money I don’t know what to do with it.
I have a bit of a silly question if you don’t mind..
What’s the point of using a CSI?From what little I have read about it, I see two uses. The first is when you have a particular setup on two or more pairs sharing a same base currency (EJ/EU), one can use CS to pick the pair with the greatest gap between strength. The second is to trade a single pair as one normally would, but would look to hold for a shorter/longer period of time depending on the relationship of CS. I feel like the ways that you can integrate other pieces of information depends on which use it is. What is your take on it?
As for the “lower limit”, I just mean that it is very hard to use too little data when making analysis. The easiest example is TZ h values; the lower the h value, the harder it is to extract useful information. Part of this (perhaps a large part) is that as you move to a higher frame, price itself retains it’s values better, i.e the highs and lows of a swing on the 1hr frame are much less likely to be broken through than the swings on the 1m frame.
Interesting and good work! I may decide to give this a go next week and see how it works..
I’m not very experienced in currency strength indis. To me it feels like a different field detached from price, kind of like volume analysis. You can certainly trade without it, and you can certainly improve crucial aspects of your trading with it if you get it right! Hence my interest :)Now, I would think that CS, like price, has a sort of “lower limit” in terms of filtering noise and forward projection. What do you think this lower limit is, if any?
The other question I have is in terms of proper context. ex. In terms of price trading, I trade a 15m frame, with a context of about 3 days. 3 days is either 3xD1 bars, 72x1hr bars or 288x15m bars. If you use any sort of indicator, there can be a big difference between them. However given the nature of what we’re looking at (relative strength), I’m wondering is it even feasible to say that the true “strength” is changing every 5/15/30 etc minutes?
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I wouldn’t put site reconstruction anywhere near the top of my list either, it was just a thought I had about the site in general.
As far as I know Saver does run the site himself and is really busy, hence why he hasn’t posted much here after things settled down a bit after the initial launch.
Giving a little more life to our discussions and our developments would be much more important, IMHO. Cheers, simplexI can’t agree enough
As a background, I think a lot of people are working on very specific things, and at this point the number of “styles” of systems that people are working on is quite vast. It makes it hard to collaborate on specific things, so discussion is kind of lost. I think we (as a very general community that came from FF) achieved a lot inside FF because the topic at hand (transient bars) was a very focused and specific piece of the market. When we, both separately and in groups, discovered that TZs cannot be traded profitably by themselves, the number of expansions and possible applications for the idea began expanding rapidly. This leads to less people begin able to be involved in multiple topics and devote time to them.
IMO, The fact that we’re left to our own devices to come up with and share our findings is really the downside. As much as I like being a part of elite groups, the idea of that is inherently anti-social. It has the correct idea, that those who share a part of the glory should be putting in the work, but it leads a lot of people to not want to share their stuff publicly at the possible cost of people “stealing the money”. Additionally, I’ve noticed that without someone with solid evidence via a trade history or historical calls, others are not willing to follow the path that is suggested, viewing it as a waste of time.
I’ve always been open about what I’m working on and what parts I’m looking to expand on to make my strategy more solid, but it’s very rare to find someone that has an interest, let alone something to contribute.
This is perhaps why I don’t mind a skype group. These groups tend to fall apart rather quickly, but they do offer chances for people to more casually share their trades, which leads to discussion, which leads to thoughts, ideas, and research. At the end of the day, that’s all I can really hope for.
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A more active chat would be kind of cool. My favorite thing about this site by far is just the community of people that made it. Knowledge seeking traders that can have a healthy discussion :)
I also agree with LearnAlways that the site is a little big atm, we (as a community) are not that active here so we don’t need as many subforums for the time being. Maybe someone can start a thread for a skype group if there’s enough interest?
Hmm, that’s quite the question isn’t it! Personally I’ve been thinking about this question a lot lately because I use a strategy that is not quite 1 pip, but it’s taking large positions and getting away with a few pips at a time.
To me, TA tells us which side the probabilities fall on. It is a pre-structure set up, and a post-structure result. The TA analysis that we use rarely employs or uses the middle. Aka, if you trade a breakout of a trend, you will make 1 pip 90% of time. But if you don’t, you’ll lose.. a lot. It requires the inputs, and gives outputs, but it doesn’t tell you what is going on in the middle. When it comes to finding stops for losing positions, I believe that it’s the middle that tell us when things go wrong.
In other words, I think you have to really employ and look at the candles and structure that occurs right when the trade is triggered, and then distinguish between the winning trades and losing trades. For me, I just look at a single candle (the breakout candle) on a 5m or 15m chart, and if it looks bad, I’ll just cut it. For example, if I take a long break and the candle pops up to trigger my entry but not enough to give me my TP, and then drops down and <i>closes</i> red, I’ll leave. Sure there will be cases where I get false positives, but in the long run, my system looks better and feels cleaner.
All depends on your trigger of course.
I noticed this as well. I don’t have much to back it up atm though, it’s something to pay close attention to thought because often this sort of thing can happen within a 1 minute bar as well, so looking over exported data will not show it correctly. My current issue with this is that trading during the news has such a huge spread for most of the standard small fish brokers..
Cool thread Saver!
I also came to the conclusion a while ago that maybe a margin call isn’t so bad in the long run, and using your entire account as your stop loss works if the numbers are right, especially if you take withdrawals out after a streak of winners. I think this idea works well if you use another “axiom” of the market: breakouts work. I tested a combo of identifying the trend using TZ concepts and breakouts of CTZs and it looks like it has potential. It allows you to set limit orders so you don’t have to stalk the chart like a hawk, with the drawback of not being able to be in as many trades over time as the method that you have suggested.
I use it every now and then, but given my schedule I’ve been working on a strategy that’s better suited for my time constraints. I’d love to see how this turns out in a real account after a few months!
