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For a valid real time signal the real time EMA should exceed the close of the bar. In history there are no real time data therefore instead of real time EMA we use the closed candle EMA. This is obviously inaccurate and explains why the circled areas could have given valid real time entry signals but no historical ones.
For a valid real time signal the real time EMA should exceed the close of the bar. In history there are no real time data therefore instead of real time EMA we use the closed candle EMA. This is obviously inaccurate and explains why the circled areas could have given valid real time entry signals but no historical ones.
Hi Xux99,
Thank you for your response it is most valued.
So does that mean the EMA 1 for confirmation along with min closed bar 1 outside the box has no significance and the back tested results are irrelevant?
I have attached a EURUSD chart to show what I mean- you have said that the EMA 1 needs to close above the min bar close in case of long and below the close of the breakout candle in case of short. Does the EMA have to close above the breakout candle or above the EMA for that bar?
The chart below shows a signal being permitted before the EMA has even closed above the first breakout candles EMA. Is this wrong or have i misread?
Kind regards,
Roni
Backtest results with EMA are inaccurate. The signal was shown to be permitted before the EMA had closed above because the indicator uses an approximation method for the entry price level, it tries to simulate real time behaviour. The EMA 1 should exceed the close of the candle.
Hi xux99,
That’s extremely upsetting and both frustrating to know that the back test results bear no significance. Most of my trades were entered with the confidence of he indicator and the ena 1 which produced amazing results on the backtest.
How do you suggest I now continue? Do you suggest I continue trading as I am but by disregarding the indicator and waiting for the ema to close above the breakout candle?
Also what other ways are there to trade this other than doubling your lot size when you lost a trade from a trade set, if any?
Sorry for so many questions- I really did think I was doing well until now :(
If your forward test results are good you can continue trading with the same settings, otherwise try to find new settings with EMA disabled.
Hi- I understand.
However once the ema is disabled the manual backtesting settings are horrendous with trade set wins being 35-52% win.
How will i trade the same settings without understanding the if the indicator is giving me a correct signal or not?
As you said it is inaccurate and is only calculating historic EMA’s and not real time. Should i just trade the settings on the chart whenever a signal pops up with the breakout candle and EMA 1 or should i now start waiting for the EMA 1 to close past the breakout candle.. What do you advise?
Hi Billyon,
As I mentioned with the EMA 1 disabled the back test results are actually horrendous.
what do you advise?
I think I will go back to just trading naked if the back test results are not relevant…
I know if you lose a trade from a trade set your double lot size for the next one right? thats the only way ive been trading so far with mixed results
Welcome to the same EURUSD chart that had backtesting results of more than 80% wins with the EMA 1 now to a mere 40% without the EMA.
See screenshot below- this is dreary.
Also try taking all the indicators of your charts and switch to a 15min line chart to spot CZs
AT YOUR DISCRETION CHOOSE THE BEST LOOKING FLAT CZS TO TRADE (FORMS A HORIZONTAL LEDGE ).
Find the best looking ones for the past 100 days by hand and draw the breakout potential. Get an Average target pips and use that as you initial breakout.
Try a sentiment filter of you choice or a combination to increase probability. (96 MA use in this example on 15 min cart this is not the filter in the indicator it’s just added to my charts) it’s basically a 24hr MA. 1440 minutes /15 min =96 min MA
When things get choppy don’t trade.
Also try taking all the indicators of your charts and switch to a 15min line chart to spot CZs AT YOUR DISCRETION CHOOSE THE BEST LOOKING FLAT CZS TO TRADE (FORMS A HORIZONTAL LEDGE ). Find the best looking ones for the past 100 days by hand and draw the breakout potential. Get an Average target pips and use that as you initial breakout. Try a sentiment filter of you choice or a combination to increase probability. (96 MA use in this example on 15 min cart this is not the filter in the indicator it’s just added to my charts) it’s basically a 24hr MA. 1440 minutes /15 min =96 min MA When things get choppy don’t trade.
Hi Billyon,
I will do just that tonight!- I will be doing this on the 1hour charts. Is it 24 SMA you use or a 96 period SMA?
Cheers,
Roni
“Backtest results with EMA are inaccurate. The signal was shown to be permitted before the EMA had closed above because the indicator uses an approximation method for the entry price level, it tries to simulate real time behaviour. The EMA 1 should exceed the close of the candle.”
So does that mean that if backtest even with tickdata are done, these are misleading?
thx
Hi guys,
I have no scrapped the indicator and have gone back to trading naked.
However, I am finding that my account is depreciating rapidly. As i understand, when you lose a trade you then double your lot size on the next etc.
I trade up to three times on a break out if i lose i then go on to the next breakout.
This results in my profit being wiped quickly- are there any better ways to hold on to profit and trade??
kind regards,
Amar
This results in my profit being wiped quickly- are there any better ways to hold on to profit and trade??
Yes: Stop trading Forex and move on to something you actually have an aptitude for. Trading is not for everyone, as you have clearly shown. Time to move on.
This results in my profit being wiped quickly- are there any better ways to hold on to profit and trade??
Yes: Stop trading Forex and move on to something you actually have an aptitude for. Trading is not for everyone, as you have clearly shown. Time to move on.
You just couldnt help yourself could you.
I have read through the forum on SSBO several times and the only methods advocated are either just trading the first breakout of a consolidation zone or thereby doubling or martingale lot size on the second and thus fourth.
It may be your method by you sir are an absolute shit bag. Goes to show how successful you really are if you have time to come onto forums and talk shit.
Ciao :)
FXH gave you some sound and profound information. You should thank him and take time to explore other possibilities.
You are trading demo I presume? Why would you use an underfunded approach in your testing? You must be 100% honest with yourself.
If you are losing real money, you are quite foolish and living in holy grail dreamland. Pull back and understand first. Study on your own a bit.
You will come back months later to apologize here.
Goes to show how successful you really are if you have time to come onto forums and talk shit.
SSBO post #7094 shows how I was trading exactly three years ago. Try to imagine what my trades are like today, after 3 years of compounded equity. Most retail traders will never see those types of numbers in their lifetime. Intelligent people will want to know how I am able to do these things. Those less intelligent will call names and sling mud in jealousy or fear. Which are you?
Try a sentiment filter of you choice or a combination to increase probability.
Hello xux99,
According to the strategy of BillYon, I would like to make a suggestion.
Is it possible to integrate a partial close function in the Rossbot EA? Used in conjunction with Swing line or MA. And an order line for buy and sell to re-enter.Goes to show how successful you really are if you have time to come onto forums and talk shit.
SSBO post #7094 shows how I was trading exactly three years ago. Try to imagine what my trades are like today, after 3 years of compounded equity. Most retail traders will never see those types of numbers in their lifetime. Intelligent people will want to know how I am able to do these things. Those less intelligent will call names and sling mud in jealousy or fear. Which are you?
I just said I cannot find anywhere in the thread that is clearly states what we should do when a trade is lost, i have only known to martingale until the loss is made back.I wanted to know what other better ways are there to take profit.. nothing else.
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