Forums Development Price on CLOSE ?! Really?!?!

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  • #3379
    Wanderer272
    Participant

      Drloyd, I like your attitude! :good: Actually gg does not see “short bodies”, as he use line-chart he see lines. And he see only the stright line between Close 1 and Close 2. Thus some part of the movement “get lost”. This is out of my understanding – how by the shape/or position of the line one could understand the direction the price actually is going. There should be something more to look at and compare with to understand the sentiment of the market. EURUSDD also used line-chart but he compared it with BB and stochastic… :scratch: OR… may be it looks like SS?… but it seems that gg put these lines “by eye” without complicated calculations… :scratch:

      Quite simple. Instead of staring at one line chart I stare at two… They are very much correlated most of the time, but sometimes they don’t. When they don’t correlate, and in opposite direction within the same bar – the “Close” price will move almost immediatly to the “sentiment” line. G.

       

      Something like this??

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      #3404
      Rahat Lukum
      Participant

        Ok, regrouped and reloaded I come again  :-)

        Vlan, I’m not the policy of truth or its beholder, so I’m not stating mine is for real, it’s just my interpretation, my best effort. BTW, what are your results with fractal arrow?

        Back to the topic… Let me show you how I see this:

        http://postimg.org/image/bnbshr99l/

        http://postimg.org/image/4r5yjam4b/

         

        Very primitive, lets see if targets will be met except for the upper one.

        EDIT: I still missed one line.

        • This reply was modified 11 years, 3 months ago by Rahat Lukum.
        #3412
        VlanFx
        Participant

          Ok, regrouped and reloaded I come again :-) Vlan, I’m not the policy of truth or its beholder, so I’m not stating mine is for real, it’s just my interpretation, my best effort. BTW, what are your results with fractal arrow? Back to the topic… Let me show you how I see this: http://postimg.org/image/bnbshr99l/ http://postimg.org/image/4r5yjam4b/ Very primitive, lets see if targets will be met except for the upper one. EDIT: I still missed one line.

          Sorry Rahat :) I was just sharing my interpretation.

          #3414
          FXEZ
          Participant
            Something like this??
            Good job, Wanderer. You’re the first to post a picture showing that you understand the simple concept. I guess I should also post a picture. Mine looks similar to yours, down to the DodgerBlue line. I’m a bit surprised more haven’t figured out this. It’s not really a secret, or new. I read about it years ago on another forum and in another context (Market Profile). Maybe that’s why it seemed self-evident when I first saw it on the picture. But I admit, I never did anything with it back then.
            It seems gg53 enjoys hinting and keeping everyone guessing. I guess it makes the thread interesting. But I believe in clarity over confusion :unsure:, and after 78 posts I think it’s time for a little clarity  :scratch:, particularly since it costs me nothing to be clear . drloyd , this is a lesson that you should always trust your first instinct. You were right in your first post in this thread, even though gg53’s reply made it seem like you weren’t quite there. Always trust your first instinct.
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            #3417
            Rahat Lukum
            Participant

              No problems, Vlan! Thanks for getting back on the arrow thing.

              I’m not sure about the horizontal thing, truth is G hasn’t put forward the whole thing and maybe he left those out, he did say not every case is marked.

              As of now the second line from below has been hit, and the way chart looks the lowest should be taken out as well. I hope G sees this and either draws a big red “X” on it or whispers it might be something in the right direction. Marking those lines I remembered Delicate Secret by Eurusdd, maybe I’ll cook up the indi for statistics to see if it has something in it, DD as alwyas a problem, like Patrick mentioned.

              :bye:

              Ok, regrouped and reloaded I come again :-) Vlan, I’m not the policy of truth or its beholder, so I’m not stating mine is for real, it’s just my interpretation, my best effort. BTW, what are your results with fractal arrow? Back to the topic… Let me show you how I see this: http://postimg.org/image/bnbshr99l/ http://postimg.org/image/4r5yjam4b/ Very primitive, lets see if targets will be met except for the upper one. EDIT: I still missed one line.

              Sorry Rahat :) I was just sharing my interpretation.

              #3418
              geminicz
              Participant

                FXEZ: Is in your chart price line with MA 1 HL/2  ?

                #3421
                simplex
                Moderator

                  It seems gg53 enjoys hinting and keeping everyone guessing.

                  Maybe a reincarnation of EURUSDD ? :muhaha:

                  But I believe in clarity over confusion, and after 78 posts I think it’s time for a little clarity, particularly since it costs me nothing to be clear.

                  :good: Yes – the whole topic is still very cryptic in my perception. To be honest, I’m still struggling to find some real clue in this story, but anyway I’m interested. For me a topic gets to the point when a guy or a community starts to develop rules that can be transformed in indicators or EAs. Just my personal opinion.

                  A good trader is a realist who wants to grab a chunk from the body of a trend, leaving top- and bottom-fishing to people on an ego trip. (Dr. Alexander Elder)

                  #3424
                  Pigh77
                  Participant

                    brainstorming… the close of the previous bar… as assumption, because even the close is something “standardized” considering a fixed timeframe… how could be correlated with the open of next bar? :wacko:

                    reply to me, myself and I… correlation on 13000 and more bars is around 99.9913%… not 100  :yes:

                     

                    #3427
                    FXEZ
                    Participant
                      :good: Yes – the whole topic is still very cryptic in my perception. To be honest, I’m still struggling to find some real clue in this story, but anyway I’m interested. For me a topic gets to the point when a guy or a community starts to develop rules that can be transformed in indicators or EAs. Just my personal opinion.

                      Hi Simplex. I’ll quote the part of drloyd’s post that I thought was self-evident:

                      So the idea is that the close of the bar represents mis-pricing and the middle of the closed bar represents where price “wants” to be and where it will usually go?

                      So to be even more clear and explicit to answer @geminicz , yes (H+L)/2 is referred to as the “market sentiment” of the bar and when compared to the close price, you can see differences or a deviations from this “fair value” which again is defined as the midpoint of a bar’s range.

                      So now we can hopefully all get up to speed and on the same page with this idea and focus our collective efforts on application rather than just discovery. As I stated in my first post on this thread, after cursory testing by me, I found that there is a small edge to the multi-lot version of this idea which is a good sign for future development efforts.

                      #3433
                      gg53
                      Participant

                        Something like that?

                        I can see the “Close” and I can see the Channel and correlated movement.

                        Where are the contradiction points to accurately predict next price?

                        G.

                        #3435
                        gg53
                        Participant

                          Ok, regrouped and reloaded I come again :-) Vlan, I’m not the policy of truth or its beholder, so I’m not stating mine is for real, it’s just my interpretation, my best effort. BTW, what are your results with fractal arrow? Back to the topic… Let me show you how I see this: http://postimg.org/image/bnbshr99l/ http://postimg.org/image/4r5yjam4b/ Very primitive, lets see if targets will be met except for the upper one. EDIT: I still missed one line.

                          Your first link is very very close to mine – containing some extra lines, which might be logical and accurate, but I need to check if valid.

                          G.

                          #3436
                          gg53
                          Participant
                            Something like this??

                            FXEZ,

                            I don’t “enjoys hinting and keeping everyone guessing”…

                            I like to introduce a concept and let people THINK for themselves – not spoon-feeding them.

                            BTW: I don’t see the “next price” in your chart.

                            G.

                            • This reply was modified 11 years, 3 months ago by gg53.
                            • This reply was modified 11 years, 3 months ago by gg53.
                            #3439
                            simplex
                            Moderator

                              So to be even more clear and explicit to answer @geminicz , yes (H+L)/2 is referred to as the “market sentiment” of the bar and when compared to the close price, you can see differences or a deviations from this “fair value” which again is defined as the midpoint of a bar’s range.

                              Thanks for clarifying, @FXEZ. Can it really be that simple to find a price that reflects ‘market sentiment’ or ‘nearly true value’. (H+L) / 2 is surely a possible attempt to get closer. The basic problem is, that the base values defining median price are bound to a specific timeframe.

                              Let’s assume that we will stay within a certain timeframe, say H1 is our choice for a certain strategy. Just an idea: what if we substitute (H+L)/2[H1] by  (TOTAL( (H+L)/2[M1]) / 60) ? The result would still be defined in the H1 timeframe, but would reflect the price where the M1 Median Prices accumulated most of the time.

                              Never tried that, but would be simple to code. Won’t do it now, though, got to catch some sleep soon. Just posting a thought for now.

                              s.

                              A good trader is a realist who wants to grab a chunk from the body of a trend, leaving top- and bottom-fishing to people on an ego trip. (Dr. Alexander Elder)

                              #3440
                              gg53
                              Participant

                                No problems, Vlan! Thanks for getting back on the arrow thing. I’m not sure about the horizontal thing, truth is G hasn’t put forward the whole thing and maybe he left those out, he did say not every case is marked. As of now the second line from below has been hit, and the way chart looks the lowest should be taken out as well. I hope G sees this and either draws a big red “X” on it or whispers it might be something in the right direction. Marking those lines I remembered Delicate Secret by Eurusdd, maybe I’ll cook up the indi for statistics to see if it has something in it, DD as alwyas a problem, like Patrick mentioned. :bye:

                                Ok, regrouped and reloaded I come again :-) Vlan, I’m not the policy of truth or its beholder, so I’m not stating mine is for real, it’s just my interpretation, my best effort. BTW, what are your results with fractal arrow? Back to the topic… Let me show you how I see this: http://postimg.org/image/bnbshr99l/ http://postimg.org/image/4r5yjam4b/ Very primitive, lets see if targets will be met except for the upper one. EDIT: I still missed one line.

                                Sorry Rahat :) I was just sharing my interpretation.

                                Very small DD, since it’s almost immediate, and no need for statistics.

                                No connection to “delicate secret” which you can uncover reading some books on fractals.

                                Later I’ll post a chart marked with bars that contain “contradiction” in them.

                                G.

                                #3444
                                gg53
                                Participant
                                  :good: Yes – the whole topic is still very cryptic in my perception. To be honest, I’m still struggling to find some real clue in this story, but anyway I’m interested. For me a topic gets to the point when a guy or a community starts to develop rules that can be transformed in indicators or EAs. Just my personal opinion.

                                  FXEZ,

                                  Yes, HL/2 is a good enough answer, when there is a direction contradiction whithin the same bar. although there is (at least) one slightly better way (pips wise).

                                  My way of exploiting it is by multi-lot trading, considering spread & slipage.

                                  Writing an EA for this is just a couple of code lines.

                                  G.

                                  • This reply was modified 11 years, 3 months ago by gg53.
                                  • This reply was modified 11 years, 3 months ago by gg53.
                                  #3453
                                  gg53
                                  Participant

                                    It seems gg53 enjoys hinting and keeping everyone guessing.

                                    Maybe a reincarnation of EURUSDD ? :muhaha:

                                     
                                    Thanks for the insult.
                                    G.
                                    #3456
                                    Wanderer272
                                    Participant
                                      Something like this??

                                      I used Typical Price (HLC)/3 on mine. There are probably better ways to do it..

                                      #3458
                                      dtlase
                                      Participant

                                        Happy New Year. Many green pips to everyone this year. :-) Hi gg53, i am curious about your concept. Please can you throw more light. If you feel my questions will reveal too much of your findings you can ignore the particular question. 1. how do you determine the candle you find signal on? Is it every current candle close that has signal? 2. When do you place your trade? Is it imediately you find the signal on the close price? 3. How long can a trade hit target? And if it doesn’t, how do you cut your loss? 4. Can we categorise this as similarity/Disimilarity Level? 5. Is this related to the concept Diceman555 was talking about in http://www.ff.com/showthread.php?t=478671&page=38 thank you. I will post more question with the chat you posted later? dtlase

                                        1. I consider a candle that the sentiment (or “true” value) is in opposite direction to the Close. 2. Trade should be placed immediately on bars close that confirm #1. 3. Depends on TF, but almost always within just 1 or few bars. 4. No connection to the similarity/Disimilarity (which is just another fancy name for waves, in my opinion). 5. I’ll have to get bach with an answer on that. Haven’t read it yet. G.

                                        Thanks gg53 for your effort and for the reply.

                                        Please how do you filter your trade? I have been looking at this since 2 days and i still find some candle that has not reach target since 19th Dec.

                                        Both candle met your first answer to my question. “” considering a candle that the sentiment (or “true” value) is in opposite direction to the Close“”

                                        If you buy on the close of “A” the target is 1.22912 and if you buy at the close of “B” the target is at 1.22734.

                                        I will open a demo devoted to this concept and see where it takes me in 2 weeks.

                                        Thanks again.

                                        dtlase

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                                        #3460
                                        dtlase
                                        Participant

                                          Hello all,

                                          I do not trade binary option but i think this is a good strategy for those that trade BO. :yes:

                                          Just my opinion. :unsure:

                                          dtlase

                                          #3461
                                          gg53
                                          Participant

                                            Happy New Year. Many green pips to everyone this year. :-) Hi gg53, i am curious about your concept. Please can you throw more light. If you feel my questions will reveal too much of your findings you can ignore the particular question. 1. how do you determine the candle you find signal on? Is it every current candle close that has signal? 2. When do you place your trade? Is it imediately you find the signal on the close price? 3. How long can a trade hit target? And if it doesn’t, how do you cut your loss? 4. Can we categorise this as similarity/Disimilarity Level? 5. Is this related to the concept Diceman555 was talking about in http://www.ff.com/showthread.php?t=478671&page=38 thank you. I will post more question with the chat you posted later? dtlase

                                            1. I consider a candle that the sentiment (or “true” value) is in opposite direction to the Close. 2. Trade should be placed immediately on bars close that confirm #1. 3. Depends on TF, but almost always within just 1 or few bars. 4. No connection to the similarity/Disimilarity (which is just another fancy name for waves, in my opinion). 5. I’ll have to get bach with an answer on that. Haven’t read it yet. G.

                                            Thanks gg53 for your effort and for the reply. Please how do you filter your trade? I have been looking at this since 2 days and i still find some candle that has not reach target since 19th Dec. Both candle met your first answer to my question. “” considering a candle that the sentiment (or “true” value) is in opposite direction to the Close“” If you buy on the close of “A” the target is 1.22912 and if you buy at the close of “B” the target is at 1.22734. I will open a demo devoted to this concept and see where it takes me in 2 weeks. Thanks again. dtlase

                                            Try ma (1) and find Diff direction on same bar.

                                            Grasp the concept, and continue from there.

                                            G.

                                            • This reply was modified 11 years, 3 months ago by gg53.
                                            #3462
                                            scissors
                                            Participant

                                              Hi GG,

                                              Just trying my luck again, so we get prediction from the following visual:

                                              1)  When the 2 lines cross each other to the next bar

                                              2) When the 2 lines meet at the same point for the current bar

                                              3) When the 2 lines are parallel with each other?

                                              Scissors

                                              #3465
                                              dtlase
                                              Participant

                                                I am sure you did not see my chart because the blue is ema(1)close and the red is ema(1) HL/2.

                                                Please correct me if am wrong for those candles on the 19th Dec.

                                                How do you filter trade like those?

                                                Thanks

                                                dtlase

                                                 

                                                • This reply was modified 11 years, 3 months ago by dtlase.
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                                                #3469
                                                LearnAlways
                                                Participant

                                                  Hi Everybody,

                                                  If we put dots, is it easier for visualization?

                                                  1st pic = price on open & close

                                                  2nd pic = price on close with hl/2 only

                                                  3 pic = price on close with hl/2 & high/low envelope

                                                  I feel price on open & close seems logical something like bulls & bears but I might be wrong. Pls help clarify my thoughts, thx.

                                                  sorry attach wrong pic earlier

                                                  • This reply was modified 11 years, 3 months ago by LearnAlways.
                                                  • This reply was modified 11 years, 3 months ago by LearnAlways.
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                                                  I only know I know nothing
                                                  Skype: learnalways@outlook.com

                                                  #3486
                                                  limprobable
                                                  Participant

                                                    Hello,

                                                    I mark 14 trades (according to some rules but you can choose other rules). Only one fail (for now).

                                                     

                                                    • This reply was modified 11 years, 3 months ago by limprobable.
                                                    • This reply was modified 11 years, 3 months ago by limprobable.
                                                    • This reply was modified 11 years, 3 months ago by limprobable.
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                                                    #3502
                                                    geminicz
                                                    Participant

                                                      Try ma (1) and find Diff direction on same bar

                                                       

                                                      GG, different direction on same bar? Do you mean situation when price line is up and median price is down and vice versa? And then trade the gap between lines?

                                                      Thank you, Sir  and sorry for my english.

                                                      geminicz

                                                       

                                                       

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