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I am sure you did not see my chart because the blue is ema(1)close and the red is ema(1) HL/2. Please correct me if am wrong for those candles on the 19th Dec. How do you filter trade like those? Thanks dtlase
Search for bars where the ma’s CLOSE is in opposite direction.
G.
I didn’t say Median or HL/2 – there is at least one better way (pips wise).
But HL/2 will do the work of demonstration.
In the attached chart – “close” and “sentiment” are in opposite directions on the same bar – so NEXT bars will meet the current bar “SENTIMENT” price.
G.
In the attached chart – “close” and “sentiment” are in opposite directions on the same bar – so NEXT bars will meet the current bar “SENTIMENT” price.
So my interpretation would be that you’d have to define some kind of threshold difference between close and sentiment to trade this on the active bar. Correct so far?
A good trader is a realist who wants to grab a chunk from the body of a trend, leaving top- and bottom-fishing to people on an ego trip. (Dr. Alexander Elder)
In the attached chart – “close” and “sentiment” are in opposite directions on the same bar – so NEXT bars will meet the current bar “SENTIMENT” price.
G.
What about the sixth bar in your chart GG? Close and sentiment go in different directions but why haven’t you marked this bar?
In the attached chart – “close” and “sentiment” are in opposite directions on the same bar – so NEXT bars will meet the current bar “SENTIMENT” price.
So my interpretation would be that you’d have to define some kind of threshold difference between close and sentiment to trade this on the active bar. Correct so far?
To enter such a trade you need: potential Profit-Costs>0.
G.
In the attached chart – “close” and “sentiment” are in opposite directions on the same bar – so NEXT bars will meet the current bar “SENTIMENT” price. G.
What about the sixth bar in your chart GG? Close and sentiment go in different directions but why haven’t you marked this bar?
6th bar is valid too. I just marked bars for illustration of the concept, not all possible trades.
G.
In the attached chart – “close” and “sentiment” are in opposite directions on the same bar – so NEXT bars will meet the current bar “SENTIMENT” price.
So my interpretation would be that you’d have to define some kind of threshold difference between close and sentiment to trade this on the active bar. Correct so far?
To enter such a trade you need: potential Profit-Costs>0. G.
Sure – obviously correct! My question was about the potential Profit detail of your equation.
A good trader is a realist who wants to grab a chunk from the body of a trend, leaving top- and bottom-fishing to people on an ego trip. (Dr. Alexander Elder)
Simplex at the close of the bar you see the amount of pips you can make due to the difference between close and the sentiment. That is your profit potential.
If the difference between close and sentiment is 10 pips and you want these 10 pips – spread, take itIn the attached chart – “close” and “sentiment” are in opposite directions on the same bar – so NEXT bars will meet the current bar “SENTIMENT” price.
So my interpretation would be that you’d have to define some kind of threshold difference between close and sentiment to trade this on the active bar. Correct so far?
To enter such a trade you need: potential Profit-Costs>0. G.
You also have to obviously consider the size of your average loss as well as the average winning percentage.
@GG53 I have one question pls.- can we use for determination of “market sentiment” some type of shift MA? For example period +1?
Thx you very much,
geminicz
@GG53 I have one question pls.- can we use for determination of “market sentiment” some type of shift MA? For example period +1? Thx you very much, geminicz
The whole purpose of this thread wasn’t “how to get quick pips”, but to show how efficient is knowing “true price”, “fair price” or “market sentiment” – call it whatever you like.
The main point was to ask yourself where price SHOULD be relative to were it is NOW.
This small demo is the tip of an iceberg.
Please don’t confuse “market sentiment” with what published indicators or the 95% of the public “think”…
Find your way to draw a price chart that almost eliminate the “random” effect of price movement.
G.
@gg53 , can you at least give us some hints were we should start digging to find our way of true price?
Great thread as always gg!
I have been so busy that I kept on postponing taking the time to read through the entire thread. Now that I have read it, I can make some comments
I have also thought a lot about this “sentiment” price, like gauging where the “true” close price should be that the price will revisit if the current close isn’t near it. One approach I had was to look at M1 candles in for example H4 candles. Get the average close of all the M1 candles in H4. That gave some pretty good results. I just don’t know where the indicator I made or its name.. haha I made so many indicators that I lose track of it all. To take it a step further, one could show the average M1 price location and it’s M1 standard deviation for the H4 so it gives a range for which the H4 candle should have closed at. In theory this made sense because this is where majority of the trades were taken place within that H4 bar.
However, when I got the statistics, I wasn’t so impressed because there were some really wrong levels which the price never came back to. I felt that this gave me a bias when trading which can be wrong so I abandoned the idea. I really wonder what your’s is based on. If you don’t mind me asking, what percentage of levels were cleared in the past 3yrs for example in EURUSD? I think mine had something like over 90%.. don’t remember the exact number… you know what, I think I will remake this indicator.. only should take me a few minutes. I will update with the results
Focus, Patience, Determination & Order in chaos
you know what, I think I will remake this indicator.. only should take me a few minutes. I will update with the results
I just made that indicator and I don’t think the averaging is what I did. I don’t remember what exactly I did to get those results but it was very similar to yours.. hopefully it will come back to me.
Focus, Patience, Determination & Order in chaos
I made another attempt at this using multiple currencies to figure out the close price. This is what that looks like
Focus, Patience, Determination & Order in chaos
I made another attempt at this using multiple currencies to figure out the close price. This is what that looks like
As far as can see from your pic – ALL different directions on the close accuratelly predict future price. (!!). Good job!
Same here…
G.
Remember that when you are looking at a price chart you are NOT looking at an analog movement.
You are just looking at SAMPLES of movement according to time lapse snapshot.
The real analog movement, and its “frequency” is not obvious from looking on price chart.
G.
I made another attempt at this using multiple currencies to figure out the close price. This is what that looks like
Nice work. Back in the FF days it became clear that detecting mis-pricing was very valuable.
I made another attempt at this using multiple currencies to figure out the close price. This is what that looks like
you are in the right road brother.i will be surprise if this thread die because this is where the sauce/recipe is guys don’t let this thread die.i have been doing this for ages if you can see wat I call cycle in ff this is the recipe of cycle please all the charts I have been posting on ff is through this road is only that mine is manually done.is hard but the payment for the result is what matters
Remember that when you are looking at a price chart you are NOT looking at an analog movement. You are just looking at SAMPLES of movement according to time lapse snapshot. The real analog movement, and its “frequency” is not obvious from looking on price chart. G.
Hi G,
Could you please explain more about “analog movement” and “frequency” , and how can we get benefit from them ?
Thanks
I made another attempt at this using multiple currencies to figure out the close price. This is what that looks like
you are in the right road brother.i will be surprise if this thread die because this is where the sauce/recipe is guys don’t let this thread die.i have been doing this for ages if you can see wat I call cycle in ff this is the recipe of cycle please all the charts I have been posting on ff is through this road is only that mine is manually done.is hard but the payment for the result is what matters
Fxrambo please tell us about “cycle” and how you manually find levels.
Can anyone give any examples of calculating “potential profits – costs” within the context of this thread/indicator?
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