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Research of Statistical Recurrences of Candle Directions A slightly different approach (published in 2010) to statistical recurrence. Didn’t read the article thoroughly yet, just posting the link in case somebody is interested: https://www.mql5.com/en/articles/1576 simplex
Very interesting. I too have been looking into to frequency distribution to find places that will consistently provide us with an environment to make pips. None of the stats gained from any statistical research like this can guarantee profits. What they can guarantee is that there are opportunists where profits can be made consistently.
-Life’s Good & Why Wouldn’t It Be? I’m a Pirate After All!have updated 1st post and sig to show results for new high risk $200 account and I have payed my first ante to the market :)
-Life’s Good & Why Wouldn’t It Be? I’m a Pirate After All!Thanks Kiads, as always u r most generous. May pips be with u as always.
How do u think about grid EA? I was actually thinking if 97% of the time price is recurrent and if we can differentiate current market conditions as Trend or Range, We can use grid EA during ranging periods only, Just my thoughts, I might be wrong though. Best Regards, LearnAlwaysAs eurusdd mentioned using proper Money management strategy where a blow is actually only 5 -10% account trading grid strategies(99% win rate no SL strategies) can be very profitable as the chances of blowing up 10 times in a row are pretty slim to none and it doesn’t matter if you blow 10% of your account after making 200%. as you will still be up 120% or so. I unfortunately live in the US so can not play with this strategy.
-Life’s Good & Why Wouldn’t It Be? I’m a Pirate After All!Please check your statistics…
Adding another pack of card doesn’t change the odds at all!
If your odds for a pack of cards is 51% then the odds for 100 packs it’s still 51% ! it’s just more difficult to keep track.
As to Forex, don’t calculate the odd that are in your hand, but the odds that are still in the “pack”.
G.
The odds do shift slighty by the maintain an average 4-5% advantage depending on the black jack rules as mentioned in first post. but yes just the decks themselves combing the odds will stay the same, it will just be a bigger data sample.
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-Life’s Good & Why Wouldn’t It Be? I’m a Pirate After All!I am excited too, Pip! I will try to open an tiny account this week to compete with you. Let’s see who blow out first or make $1M first
Its on brother!
Hopefully we both make a $1M :)
But first I will focus on making $800 to complete the first stage of my plan
-Life’s Good & Why Wouldn’t It Be? I’m a Pirate After All!My trading system is based on Order flow and Markov model. Hi Zelo, Order Flow – Something like Supply/Demand? Markov Model – ??? Pls enlighten me, thx. Best Regards
The markov model is TZ/RZ theory. the proposition Eurusdd initially posted is a stochastics formula/process of a markov chain.
-Life’s Good & Why Wouldn’t It Be? I’m a Pirate After All!I have just joined a contest to test my trading skill after many studying and training. My trading system is based on Order flow and Markov model. Time frame is H1 and M1, i sometime jump on other Time frame for reference, like D1. Here is my trading plan. – Watch motivation video or read motivation quote. – Choose the best pair to trade. – Take a look at calendar. – If there is a setup with good Reward:Risk, jump in — If price hit take profit, then It is Awesome! — If price hit stop loss, analyze it and move on. – Find any potential set up if there isn’t set up available. — Mark them, set alert. — Do something fun. That is. I will update more often. Let’s see. Have a green pips week guys!
Good luck my friend! I hope you smash the competition and take all the pips!!
-Life’s Good & Why Wouldn’t It Be? I’m a Pirate After All!Broker has finally opened up my new small high risk account that I am going to attach to this thread so I will be funding that today and adding it on here. Since this is going to be very high risk trading I am starting with a tiny account as I could blow up if I do not execute properly.
Very excited to see how this goes :)
-Life’s Good & Why Wouldn’t It Be? I’m a Pirate After All!It is a known fact that when you walk into a casino the odds are always in the houses favor. This is how they stay in business, with out fixing the odds in this manner they would go bust as every one won money. This model of risk does not only keep them in business, it makes them extreme amounts of money. So how much are the odds stacked in their favor? Some would think it is much higher than it really is, but the fact of the matter is its around 53-54%. Thats it all. All they need to keep taking every ones money over and over is a 3-4% advantage and proper pay out ratios(risk reward ratios).
One of the beautiful things about investing is we get to decide which odds we are going to bet on and since i have been introduced to the TZ theory it is very simple for us to do. 
When I first began trading TZ and how TZ was introduced was it was intended to be a way to figure out how to find 97% or 90%+ probability trades and I was working with a lot of great traders trying to figure out how to achieve this. Some(FX-Jay) were able to achieve these results and I still haven’t quite figured out how he has done so. After trying for sometime the only way I could achieve numbers like this was to compound probabilities, which we all know does not work. So how does relate to casinos? So after hitting a wall I began to think about vegas, casinos and how it is truly only a slight advantage and proper risk management that allows the “house to always win.” I realized that with proper R:R ratios and risk management we do not need trade probabilities in the 90%+ to profitable, or to always win in the long run as the house does. we don’t even need a 70% win rate to always win as the house does. As long as we never trade a R:R ratio less than 1:1 and maintain a win rate of 55%, we will always win as the house does in the long run. The key is understanding risk management and how much risk you can expect to take on at any given time(drawdown). A casino will never let people place too big of bets as this would cause them to blow up, similar to how over leverage will cause trading accounts to blow up as they can not handle the losing streak they can except to take at any given time. Anyways taking away my compounding probabilities, my set up(% chance of TP being hit instead of SL by x amount of time) probabilities will range any where from 30%-70% and they will change as time continues so what works today does not always work tomorrow, and when this happens we just flip the script and bet against our setup. As long as we maintain a R:R 1:1 and always take trades with a 55% or greater probability we will always win in the long run as the house does. With my current method many of my setups R:R ratios are 3:1 and sometimes even 4:1. As I continue to only focus on the higher R:R setups it will only make it much easier for me to win in the long run as the house always does. The key to it all is knowing the true probability of your setup, using the right R:R ratios, and proper amount of risk per trade. For my account this year I am going to be only trading 0.75% per lot as I could see as much as 7+ losing trades in a row(which would not be surprising) and my account needs to be able to survive these times. I am also trying to be much more risk conservative. That being said with my R:R ratios I can still make 2-3% a trade which will still provide my with fast pace of growth. I will post update of this pic but I am keeping it private on myfxbook so there wont be a direct link as this thread is mostly about the high risk account. On top of this account I am going to open a tiny high risk account to really be in the spirit of playing like a casino. I will think this account to this post once it is up as I did with buried treasure thread along with adding it to my sig. This account with risk 5% per trade and will use R:R of 2-3+. This account should see some quick growth. That being said it will be a very bumpy ride. With this account I will be expecting to deal with some significant drawdown as I will be risk more much per trade. That being said as long as I maintain my winrate and use higher R:R ratio the account should grow quite nicely. Goal For High Risk Account – Grow 500% 5 times(Now time limit or dead line on this, just going to see if I can even get $200 to $1000 and then we can see from there). $200 x 5 = $1000 $1000 x 5 = $5000 $5000 x 5 = $25,000 $25,000 x 5 = $125,000 $125,ooo x 5 = $625,000 So this is my approach going into 2015 and how I will be trading the markets and I just created this thread to journal my progress. I wanted to keep it separate from my buried treasure thread as I am taking a slightly different approach.Your opening statement is quite true, EXCEPT one game – Black Jack (21). In this game the odd are in your (gambler) favor – if you know how to count cards (51%/49%) and increasing. There are some movies about that. That’s why casino’s introduced multi-packets shuffling – to make it harder, but it doesn’t change the statistical odds. In Casino’s it’s illegal to count cards mechanically. In Forex – it’s perfectly legal, highly recomended, and profitable… G.
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True those odds presented in the first post are the averages of all the classic casino games you would play. Of coarse they are always changing game to game and bet to bet(red 2 or black 4 with craps etc).
Counting Cards is just counting probabilities. So is counting TZs(PLURAL! as i said a while ago you can not trade just one TZ. thatd be like playing black jack counting only the cards in your hand. You need multiple TZ to understand the probabilities( you need to see the other cards on the table so you can count them into your probability calculation).
Also I believe counting cards and black jack is over as like you said they add multiple decks into the stack so they odds are almost impossible to figure. I have seen some places in new Orleans use 8 decks shuffled together(I imagine some casinos do not use full decks either in their multiple deck stack just to fudge the odds up some more).
-Life’s Good & Why Wouldn’t It Be? I’m a Pirate After All!Some wise words from Bruce Lee that should be applied to how we handle/act with the market… Be Like Water My Friends!
-Life’s Good & Why Wouldn’t It Be? I’m a Pirate After All!Great Thread Bartleby!
Just consumed about 4 hours of my friday night haha
both videos were great and very useful.
-Life’s Good & Why Wouldn’t It Be? I’m a Pirate After All!Still waiting for broker to open new high risk account so I can link it to thread. In the mean time a little update on my conservative account I am keeping private.
So far its been going well. I have maintained my win rate being equal to or greater than 55% and have had very minimal drawdown.
AUDUSD has been treating me nicely. Rode it down short and have been able to take it back up long. Looks like TP will be achieved in next few hours.
EURGBP is another set up I am really liking right now. I expecting a nice move up and have gone long. This one has a nice R:R ratio on it too. its right around 1:5.
Hope every ones week is going well!
-Life’s Good & Why Wouldn’t It Be? I’m a Pirate After All!This reply has been reported for inappropriate content.
Use a UK broker.
Can’t.. almost all foreign brokers don’t accept US clients. Only a very few unregulated ones are. If they are regulated, then they cannot accept US clients due to US regulations.
gotta love that good ole land of the free
I hate the regulations they placed on us with the dodd-frank act.
-Life’s Good & Why Wouldn’t It Be? I’m a Pirate After All!Hey Pirate!! Glad to see you around. One question, what’s the relation between the RR ratio and the % BE winRate? I mean, how can you calculate the % BE winRate if you know the RR ratio or viceversa? Regards! EDIT: I see it now… just posted the question, looked the chart again and saw it haha
Glad to see you stop by Basch!
PM me any questions you may have with how am I trading or if you just want to know what I am doing(if don’t already )
-Life’s Good & Why Wouldn’t It Be? I’m a Pirate After All!Hi PiratePip, I have a question to ask. I find it quite difficult to trade TZ. It looks definitely nice on history charts but trying to trade it is still quite a gray zone for me. How do u trade TZ? 1) Counter Trend or Trend Trades or both? 2) Entry when its PTZ or CTZ? 3) If CTZ most of the time depending on the h value, price will have move quite far away from the CTZ if there’s no pullback. Hence R:R is not optimum especially on H4 & above. 4) If PTZ the risk is much higher if counter trend. Since u don’t really know if its going to be a mid TZ instead. If u could answer this question, I’ll be most grateful, thanks. If U don’t want to share on public, do u mind if u pm me, thanks a lot.
As I said in many previous post on here we cant trade just one Level, we need two so we can determine which one has better probability in same time frame. One thing that is very interesting about my method is the probabilities are constantly shifting set up to setup(as they naturally would) so sometimes I should trade with the setup and other days against.
1) Doesn’t matter. I am going to try and trade the most fundamentally sound set ups just to hope that this cherry picking will help me take even the best set ups, but the method is 100% technical that is based on a pattern that happens over and over in the market, sometimes with the trend, sometimes against.
2) I enter when I can with the best R:R ratio. so sometimes I will be stalking entry for a bounce into a level to get a good R:R ratio, other times the R:R isnt there so I move on to the next trade.
3) not 100% what you mean in this question but I believe it relates to trading 1 zone, which we can not not as you will only have half the probabilities.
4) I do not use Mid TZ, in this current set up, mid TZ, are not calculated and I do not know the true probabilities when they are present.
-Life’s Good & Why Wouldn’t It Be? I’m a Pirate After All!What do you think to create a private group to discuss this?
LOL
Market sentiment or “True” value is embedded within each bar. When the sentiment or value contradict the “Close” price – the sentiment will “Win” and the price will correct itself, almost immediatly.
It really true. If you have time to look at tick chart for some time, you will see what gg53 mean.
I’m not quite a fan of making too many private groups. Open discussion of methods is what (i believe) all of us here.
I think that too. But less is more. The less member but have same mind discuss, the better discussion. When have more people, we tend to go into another direction. Like this one. BTW, I have my private group
I totally agree with you Zelo
-Life’s Good & Why Wouldn’t It Be? I’m a Pirate After All!This may be off topic but i think it is related in regards to not using the close to calculate the price. I believe in Kiads SS indi, the reason all the levels have >95% chance of clearing is because its calculated using OHLC/4. If you use the C or HL/2 HLC/3 you wont reach 100%. Or at least this what I found when working with xux99 to recreate it before he released the indi. When didnt use OHLC/4 only about 85-89% of the levels would clear and when we used OHLC/4 it went to 99%. Just something very interesting to think about.
-Life’s Good & Why Wouldn’t It Be? I’m a Pirate After All!I too do not feel comfortable sharing too much any more as I am unsure many unwanted visitors are lurking
Yea, I understand pip. That’s why I started sharing a few things privately as well. At least it will limit the exposure. Have you thought about working together in a private group?
Yes definitely, two other guys and my self have been working together on fb as i mentioned on skype a few weeks back. We have made a lot of progress and would would love to create a heat map dashboard for it as we discussed previously as well.
-Life’s Good & Why Wouldn’t It Be? I’m a Pirate After All!sorry I think some unwanted visitors are around this forum, doesn’t want to let them know my efforts and thoughts. First is zippo lighter now what horse thing is opening a public group, I dun feel safe.
I too do not feel comfortable sharing too much any more as I am unsure many unwanted visitors are lurking… This is why my ideas and sharings have become more discretionary.
-Life’s Good & Why Wouldn’t It Be? I’m a Pirate After All!Added 30M 15M set up probabilties for 28 major pairs
Hi Pip, this is nice. May i know how you did the calculation? Which software do you use to get this result? Thanks
Hey smallcat these were done using a custom indi and then i created the chart from the data sample.
sorry it took me so long to respond. Been relaxing and staying off of the computer for the holidays. Since the break is ending next week though I will be much more active on here again. I have opened a new account linked on myfxbook that I will be trading with for all of 2015 using a strategy based on TZ/RZ. This account is going to be much more risk aware and will only be risking .5-1% per trade. I will regularly be posting updates here on how my trading is doing.
-Life’s Good & Why Wouldn’t It Be? I’m a Pirate After All!-
This reply was modified 11 years, 6 months ago by
How do u think about grid EA? I was actually thinking if 97% of the time price is recurrent and if we can differentiate current market conditions as Trend or Range, We can use grid EA during ranging periods only, Just my thoughts, I might be wrong though. Best Regards, LearnAlways
One of the beautiful things about investing is we get to decide which odds we are going to bet on and since i have been introduced to the TZ theory it is very simple for us to do. 
When I first began trading TZ and how TZ was introduced was it was intended to be a way to figure out how to find 97% or 90%+ probability trades and I was working with a lot of great traders trying to figure out how to achieve this. Some(FX-Jay) were able to achieve these results and I still haven’t quite figured out how he has done so. After trying for sometime the only way I could achieve numbers like this was to compound probabilities, which we all know does not work. So how does relate to casinos? So after hitting a wall I began to think about vegas, casinos and how it is truly only a slight advantage and proper risk management that allows the “house to always win.” I realized that with proper R:R ratios and risk management we do not need trade probabilities in the 90%+ to profitable, or to always win in the long run as the house does. we don’t even need a 70% win rate to always win as the house does. As long as we never trade a R:R ratio less than 1:1 and maintain a win rate of 55%, we will always win as the house does in the long run. The key is understanding risk management and how much risk you can expect to take on at any given time(drawdown). A casino will never let people place too big of bets as this would cause them to blow up, similar to how over leverage will cause trading accounts to blow up as they can not handle the losing streak they can except to take at any given time. Anyways taking away my compounding probabilities, my set up(% chance of TP being hit instead of SL by x amount of time) probabilities will range any where from 30%-70% and they will change as time continues so what works today does not always work tomorrow, and when this happens we just flip the script and bet against our setup. As long as we maintain a R:R 1:1 and always take trades with a 55% or greater probability we will always win in the long run as the house does. With my current method many of my setups R:R ratios are 3:1 and sometimes even 4:1. As I continue to only focus on the higher R:R setups it will only make it much easier for me to win in the long run as the house always does. The key to it all is knowing the true probability of your setup, using the right R:R ratios, and proper amount of risk per trade. For my account this year I am going to be only trading 0.75% per lot as I could see as much as 7+ losing trades in a row(which would not be surprising) and my account needs to be able to survive these times. I am also trying to be much more risk conservative. That being said with my R:R ratios I can still make 2-3% a trade which will still provide my with fast pace of growth. I will post update of this pic but I am keeping it private on myfxbook so there wont be a direct link as this thread is mostly about the high risk account. On top of this account I am going to open a tiny high risk account to really be in the spirit of playing like a casino. I will think this account to this post once it is up as I did with buried treasure thread along with adding it to my sig. This account with risk 5% per trade and will use R:R of 2-3+. This account should see some quick growth. That being said it will be a very bumpy ride. With this account I will be expecting to deal with some significant drawdown as I will be risk more much per trade. That being said as long as I maintain my winrate and use higher R:R ratio the account should grow quite nicely. Goal For High Risk Account – Grow 500% 5 times(Now time limit or dead line on this, just going to see if I can even get $200 to $1000 and then we can see from there). $200 x 5 = $1000 $1000 x 5 = $5000 $5000 x 5 = $25,000 $25,000 x 5 = $125,000 $125,ooo x 5 = $625,000 So this is my approach going into 2015 and how I will be trading the markets and I just created this thread to journal my progress. I wanted to keep it separate from my buried treasure thread as I am taking a slightly different approach.
PM me any questions you may have with how am I trading or if you just want to know what I am doing(if don’t already 
