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Hi guys, nice to see everybody here again!
My idea is that the more the FED will continue to print the more the markets will growth.
Negative interest rates and poor returns on bonds are creating a bubble on stock market. Is a matter of communicating vessels of liquidity.
Always liquidity is moved in order to have higher returns, also the crypto currencies world is beneficial of this liquidity.
The picture attached is showing the liquidity provided to markets, as you can see 2020 pandemic period could be only a “v” recovery due to the exceptional liquidity injections, never seen before.
Hi
honestly I think you can trade against the trend with TZ with a wider stop loss and assuming that a trend will destroy part of your profits. In a backtest from 2009 (15 min) there weren’t so strong trends able to destroy profits made bar after bar against the TZs.
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Run a plan that withdraws profits weekly or after a % of growth and you can possibly make that work. You risk is what you put into the account, not a stop loss level. Risk the whole account. Grid systems as such need risk structured this way to benefit. How many 90% DD did you see? Also not TZ as I see it. More like S/R and fractal recurrence. Which is great given you have the probability calculations on a significant amount of clean historic data.
Thank you Billyon, withdrawing profits as well as splitting the account in 3 or 4 subaccounts as CSendo suggested. Probabilistic approach is the key for a successfull performance, only if combined with money management.
I was too concentrated in the first part forgetting the second one, but I remember that FX-Jay was applying both.
I would like to share the experience with a bad drawdown: in October I was short in AUDUSD with a target around 0.7020 and the market riding. I did the trade also in a real account with a very small size of 0.01 lots. After a couple of weeks I was completely pissed off and closed the trade with a loss. In November the AUDUSD bottomed out exactly around 0.7020. These “high probability levels” are very frequent, but I didn’t found a way to understand “when” they will re-occur. Considering that TZ are including the variable “time” something should be studied.
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Your dedication is inspiring sir. I was fairly unsuccessful in implementing the strategy that was revealed in the thread (IIRC, it was a while ago haha) and I instead worked on a variation of it on my own; not using the TZs directly but modeling price based around them. Perhaps it’s worth taking a closer look at again :)
Observation is a complex process activating the most efficient neural network that we have :) our brain.
I want to share with you one of the other interpretations, when the 1st December 2015 was evidencing something “below” in the SP500 (all levels were touched later).
I suggest again to play and play with TZ
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Okay, seems to be in line with what I thought. Interesting to know that the equity curve is the result of multiple time frames! Are you just using the same strategy that was reviewed in the thread? (Waiting for a completed TZ first, and trading the second one) I’ll be interested to know how the rest of your strategy plays out! I’m tempted to try this out myself, I expect there’s a lot to learn from it.
Hi CSendo,
I spent 8 months to nail fully the FX-Jay base-model, checking all trades he did, charts and messages. In the end he was honestly sharing practically everything, and there was nothing else than the interpretation around TZ. There are a lot of different interpretations (I found at least 5) so his suggestion to follow our own way to research was correct. Our fantasy will help us.
I can suggest something, but I would like to exchange different point of views, use your imagination to “extract” what you see from charts.
I will continue to look for a key in this, potentially I’ve never seen a so high probability pattern (including the big drawdowns).
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Impressive! Both in the result and in the time duration. Care to share any of your thoughts on anything you learned? You say that it is unsustainable, but did you or do you (to some extent) think that this type of strategy may have a true edge? I say this because I know of a few traders who trade *kind of* like this, where they incur high “live DD” (aka closing the current losing trade would result in say 15, 20, 30%+ loss) but relatively small “true DD” (drawdown in equity graph). From the info I’ve garnered from these traders, they use no SL, they add on (sometimes in greater size) to the losing position (how many rules do they break here??) BUT at the end of the day they are profitable. I would think that trading an entire YEAR is quite a stress test of how well the system can perform, depending on the time frame. It also has made me wonder if trading at the retail level is really like a top tier performance skill, where the winners win big, and do so via the seemingly slimmest of margins. If one can take 10k and make 400 (40x) it seems well worth it to continue with account money management, like trading 2 5k accounts and letting a margin call take the trader out flat, rather than using a single 10k account and lowering risk.Hi CSendo,
I did the same you have explained, loosing trades with high drawdowns adding positions to the loosing ones, stressfull but results are there. In a paper account is very easy, in a real account you think twice.
I really don’t know if this strategy with some money management adjustment could become “more human”, on a side I see potentially a strong pattern (as you can see there were 3 phases: the yellow one where I applied the model to 4h EURUSD, the orange with the 5m EURUSD and the red with the definitive 15m. They are “smoother” depending on the number of trades and the average profit/loss) on the other side I see that there are not other ways to trade it if not loosing big money in some trade. If you remember FX-Jay had a lower drawdown (on closed trades) and he declared a drawdown around 35% on opened trades, for sure adopting different money mngt rules (I don’t have any, so no stop loss, nothing).
The frequency of bad trades is low enought to consider the idea of splitting into different 5 accounts the inizial capital. On the other side I was working only with bad trades as a new strategy (using them as a target for a potential new model), but this is a work in progress that is not satisfying me.
My first temptative was to analyze bigger time frames and going on shorter looking for the same main direction trades, I will check it further and provide you a feedback.
Thank you for your reply and for patience with my english
D.
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Hi,
almost 1 year trading on a paper account following FX-Jay’s style (never disclosed the strategy with me of course) – image attached.
Obviously MT4 has the big issue on the real drawdown calculation, but what I think is that the trading style is
risky because truly you have the majority of trades closing positively but when you have the looser one… it’s pain, real pain for the account
the real drawdown in last year was around 90%, so not sustainable
I suppose this is the reason why FX-Jay tried to continued to look for a new trading style, because he was lucky enought to tranform 10k in 400k in less than 3 months but he has seen what I have seen…
Thank you for your comments and opinion
D.
Hi Guys, I have a big question for you: suggestions on how to manage a loosing position ?
1. A position is not “loosing”. It’s money in the market. It will become “loosing” if you close it without profit… 2. Can’t bare the DD? – Hedge !! 3. Work yourself out of of the hedged position, in small steps, until BE. 4. Can’t work yourself out of hedged position? you don’t have a reasonable winning system, so quit trading and get back to the drawing board. G.
Hi GG,
the third is my favourite, very slow to reach the BE and for this reason I asked for suggestions :)
playing on the money management size, I would like to avoid increasing size for every new trade
thank you
For example, if I take a long break and the candle pops up to trigger my entry but not enough to give me my TP, and then drops down and <i>closes</i> red, I’ll leave. Sure there will be cases where I get false positives, but in the long run, my system looks better and feels cleaner. All depends on your trigger of course.
thank you CSendo, I like your idea and I will check it
Bids: 1.1140
Hi Saver0,
I am writing after a long silence while I was testing some stuff
I was reading about your strategy and I have a doubt about the trend decision… to me happened frequently that I was fully wrong also using indicators as moving averages, etc.
In my opinion the power of the small TP is not enought in case of wrong trend decision…
I stumbled upon John Ehlers’ latest book recently, titled Cycle Analytics For Traders. Absolutely worth reading, it contains a complete chapter about autocorrelation. I’ll start coding an experimental indicator based on that chapter when I have some spare time. Typically for Ehlers the reader should be prepared to be confronted with a nice portion of mathematics, most of it IMO understandable at an advanced highschool level. Part of it will require some knowledge of math and physics at an undergraduate engineering level if you really want to dive in deeply, but you can skip those parts and still gain valuable insights. Description: wiley.com/WileyCDA/WileyTitle/productCd-1118728513.html
Simplex very good idea :) I am a perfect ignorant and my point of view is only empirical, but I see something very interesting behind the autocorrelation. Having here skilled people will be a plus!
Considering that buyer/sellers in EURUSD (for example) are usually around 50% buyers / 50% sellers I would say that for binary options is the same… so the dealer has no need to go in the market, the position is hedged by another trader (who has taken the opposite of your bet).
This is only my personal opinion without proof
Hi guys, I am now far from the trading, could you please share more screenshots on different currencies? thank you very much!
I think my journal ends here. Learn so many things since start of this, and finally found my ‘it’. I am happy now.I am glad for you Zelo, the hard work is rewarded !
brainstorming… the close of the previous bar… as assumption, because even the close is something “standardized” considering a fixed timeframe… how could be correlated with the open of next bar?
reply to me, myself and I… correlation on 13000 and more bars is around 99.9913%… not 100
brainstorming…
the close of the previous bar… as assumption, because even the close is something “standardized” considering a fixed timeframe… how could be correlated with the open of next bar?
I’m not quite a fan of making too many private groups. Open discussion of methods is what (i believe) all of us here.
I think that too. But less is more. The less member but have same mind discuss, the better discussion. When have more people, we tend to go into another direction. Like this one. BTW, I have my private group
more Users active in the discussion = more interesting and unexpected ideas to improve the initial thread, so it is really helpfull and usefull, but when it is necessary to pick some point to investigate deeper it should be better to split in one or more private groups… this is my opinion. I feel that big-brother of the Brokers is watching us
I am paranoic, you have probably noticed that, and my contribution is not so relevant. So don’t mind about me
I think my journal ends here. Learn so many things since start of this, and finally found my ‘it’. I am happy now.
I am paranoic, you have probably noticed that, and my contribution is not so relevant. So don’t mind about me 